CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, suggests Bitcoin may have entered a bear market two months ago, after several of his indicators turned bearish in early November.
Moreno cites the price falling below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, signaling that a lower trading range could be ahead. He believes a potential bottom may be near the realized price, which he estimates between $56,000 and $60,000. This would represent a drop of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high—a significant decline, though smaller than past crashes of 70% or 80%.
Market momentum has weakened. Bitcoin started 2025 around $93,000, reached a peak of about $126,050 in October, and ended the year lower than it began. As of Friday, trading hovered around $88,920.
Ahead of a $1.85 billion options expiry, Bitcoin held within the $87,000–$89,000 range. Reports indicate derivatives volume fell 39% while open interest remained flat, suggesting trader hesitation rather than aggressive positioning. Technical measures show price compression near support levels, and traders are closely watching the expiry for a potential larger move once contracts settle. Volatility has been lower than in previous selloffs, leading to tighter price action than many expected.
Moreno and other analysts note the current environment feels structurally different. Large institutional players and regulated ETFs have been consistent buyers, and these flows have not shown signs of panic selling. This steady demand has helped avoid the cascading failures seen in 2022 with the collapses of Terra, Celsius, and FTX, which amplified market losses. Without such major shocks this time, the drawdown appears more controlled, even as prices decline.
Some analysts still forecast new highs in 2026, pointing to expected U.S. rate cuts and a more favorable policy stance in Washington. Meanwhile, observers are watching whether Bitcoin’s close correlation with U.S. stocks will hold as macro and regulatory decisions unfold. If the correlation weakens, crypto may move independently; if it remains strong, Bitcoin’s path could be heavily influenced by broader market trends rather than crypto-specific flows.
Based on reports and Moreno’s analysis, key factors to watch include the one-year moving average, realized price levels near $56,000–$60,000, the outcome of options expiries, and whether institutional buyers continue their steady accumulation. While price action has been calmer than in some past crises, this calm masks real downside risk. Analysts and traders are divided, with some expecting a return to growth next year and others preparing for lower prices before any sustained recovery.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the topic Bitcoins Bear Market May Have Already Started Two Months Ago Data Suggests designed to be helpful for both beginners and more experienced observers
Beginner Definition Questions
1 What is a bear market for Bitcoin
A bear market is a prolonged period where prices are falling typically by 20 or more from recent highs and the overall market sentiment is pessimistic Its the opposite of a bull market
2 What data suggests the bear market started two months ago
Analysts often look at key metrics like
Price Action Failure to break above previous alltime highs and making lower highs and lower lows
OnChain Data Longterm holders starting to distribute coins a decrease in network activity or a decline in profit being taken by investors
Market Structure Breaking below important longterm support levels that held during the bull run
3 Does this mean Bitcoins price will only go down from here
Not necessarily A bear market is characterized by a general downtrend but it often includes sharp rallies The overall direction however is considered downward until a new sustained uptrend is established
Intermediate Impact Questions
4 What usually causes a Bitcoin bear market
Common triggers include a peak in hype and fear of missing out macroeconomic factors largescale profittaking by early investors negative regulatory news or a slowdown in new money entering the market
5 How long do Bitcoin bear markets typically last
Historically they have lasted anywhere from several months to over a year The last major bear market lasted approximately one year However past performance is not a guarantee of future results
6 What happens during a bear market
Prices fall with high volatility
Weak hands often sell at a loss and exit the market
Development and building often continue quietly on projects with strong fundamentals
It is often seen as a cleansing period that sets the stage for the next cycle