Bitcoin has fallen back below the $77,000 mark, losing the recovery it had made above the short-term holder cost basis.
Bitcoin Drops Below the STH Realized Price
In a recent post on X, analyst Maartunn pointed out that Bitcoin’s move above the short-term holder Realized Price has been rejected. The “Realized Price” is an on-chain indicator that shows the average cost basis of investors or addresses on the Bitcoin network.
When the current price of Bitcoin is higher than this metric, it means investors are, on average, sitting on unrealized profits. On the other hand, if the price is below the indicator, it suggests that losses are more common across the network.
For this discussion, the focus is on the Realized Price of short-term holders (STHs)—investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days.
Here’s a chart from Maartunn showing how the Bitcoin Realized Price for this group has changed over the past few years:
As the chart shows, Bitcoin fell below the STH Realized Price during the crash in late 2025 and stayed there until the recent recovery rally. That rally finally pushed the price back above the line, putting STHs back in profit. But that didn’t last long. A pullback has now pushed the price below the indicator again.
In the past, Bitcoin has often struggled around the STH Realized Price during bearish periods. This happens because STHs tend to panic-sell when the price hits their break-even point. A similar recovery attempt in January also fizzled out near this cost basis.
Related: Ethereum Sell Signal That Previously Led to a 63% Drop Flashes Again
On another note, long-term holders (LTHs)—the opposite of STHs—have seen their supply increase recently, according to CryptoQuant author Darkfrost in an X post.
The chart shows that Bitcoin LTH supply dropped during the second half of 2025, meaning long-term investors were selling. But that trend changed in January, when the group’s netflow turned positive. LTHs now hold a total of 15.26 million BTC.
BTC Price
Bitcoin dropped to a low of $76,700 during the latest pullback but has since recovered slightly to $77,700.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about Bitcoins failed attempt to recover above a key cost basis level and its drop below 77000
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does Bitcoin tried to recover above a key cost basis level mean
It means the price of Bitcoin briefly went up toward a price point where many people bought it That price is considered a cost basis for holders so when it tries to go back up to that level its a test to see if buyers are strong enough to push through
2 Why is the 77000 level so important
77000 is a psychological and technical support level Its a price where many traders and longterm holders have bought Bitcoin When Bitcoin drops below it it signals that selling pressure is stronger than buying pressure and people who bought near that price may panic sell
3 What happened when Bitcoin failed to recover above the key level
It failed means the price hit that higher level but then immediately dropped back down This shows that not enough buyers were willing to buy at that price so the price reversed and fell below 77000
4 Does this mean Bitcoin is going to zero
No A drop below a support level like 77000 is a shortterm price move It doesnt mean Bitcoin is worthless It just means the market is currently bearish for now Bitcoin has recovered from much bigger drops before
5 Should I sell my Bitcoin now if it dropped below 77000
That depends on your strategy If youre a longterm investor shortterm drops are normal If youre a trader you might cut losses to avoid further drops Never make decisions based on fear aloneconsider your own risk tolerance
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 What is a cost basis level in simple terms
Your cost basis is the price you paid for an asset A key cost basis level in the market is a price where a large number of people bought Bitcoin For example if many people bought at 80000 that becomes a resistance level when trying to recover or a support level when falling