After hitting its cycle high last August, Cardano’s price has been steadily declining, reaching lows not seen since 2024. Despite early May talk of an “altseason,” ADA has lost all the gains it made at the start of the month. Interestingly, the current price structure suggests the altcoin could face further drops in the coming months if it closes below a key support level in May.
ADA Price Could Drop 78% If This Support Breaks
In a May 30th post on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that Cardano’s price has been hovering around a critical level over the past couple of weeks. Looking at the monthly chart, the altcoin risks closing May below a major historical support level.
As the chart shows, Cardano has been moving within a multi-year channel since 2021. After hitting the channel’s upper boundary at $1.195 in early 2025, the price has steadily fallen, losing a key support level around $0.544 last November. Now, Martinez notes that the next clear floor for ADA is around $0.247, which has acted as strong support in the past. In fact, this level sparked the last rally that pushed ADA to $1.195.
However, Cardano has dipped below this support in recent days, dropping as low as $0.232. With May ending soon, it will be interesting to see if ADA’s monthly candle closes below the $0.247 level in the next day. Martinez wrote: “As the monthly close approaches, staying below $0.247 changes the immediate market structure, suggesting a deeper valuation phase is underway.”
According to the analyst, if Cardano closes below this historical support, the next “high-conviction macro targets for long-term accumulation” are around $0.113 and $0.051. In other words, investors could see the price drop nearly 78% from current levels if ADA stays below $0.247. However, if this major channel support holds and demand returns to the crypto market, the altcoin could bounce back to around $0.544.
Cardano Price At A Glance
As of now, ADA is trading at about $0.237, up over 2% in the past 24 hours.
Featured image from Solodev, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about what happens if Cardanos price ends May below a key multiyear support level
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does key support level mean in simple terms
Think of it like a price floor Its a price where Cardano has historically stopped falling and bounced back uplike a trampoline If the price drops below it that floor might turn into a ceiling
2 If Cardano breaks below that support does it mean the project is dead
No A price drop doesnt kill the technology or the team It usually means shortterm fear or selling pressure The project can still be working on upgrades and realworld use cases
3 Should I sell my Cardano if it falls below the support level
Thats a personal risk decision not a rule Breaking support often leads to more downside in the short term but many investors use these moments to buy cheaper Never invest more than you can afford to lose
4 How low could Cardano go if it breaks that level
Nobody knows for sure Without that support the next logical floor is usually the next major level from years agooften 2040 lower But crypto is volatile it could also find a new bottom quickly
IntermediateLevel Questions
5 Why would a support level that held for years suddenly break
Support levels break when selling pressure overwhelms buying interest Common triggers include a broader crypto market crash bad news about Cardano or a shift in investor sentiment
6 What happens to accumulation patterns if support breaks
Accumulation usually stops or reverses Smart money often waits for a clear bounce before buying again A breakdown can trigger a distribution phase where large holders sell into the panic
7 Will the Cardano Foundation or IOG do anything to stop the price from falling
No The foundation doesnt control the market price They focus on development partnerships and network upgrades They might release positive news to boost confidence but they wont buy coins to prop up the price
8 How do options and futures markets react to a support break
Liquidation cascades often happen Many traders have stoploss