Bitcoin’s derivatives market still hasn’t fully recovered from a major shakeout last October, when about 71,000 BTC—worth roughly $11 billion—was wiped out from open interest across major exchanges. Total open interest hasn’t bounced back to where it was before that event, leaving a gap of more than 24,000 BTC. This suggests many traders are still staying on the sidelines.
This cautious mood is at the heart of growing concerns about where Bitcoin is headed next. The world’s largest cryptocurrency ended May at $73,560, down 3.40% for the month. At least two closely watched analysts say the decline might not be over yet.
Prominent on-chain analyst PlanB laid out the debate clearly. He said the market is roughly split on whether the February low near $60,000 marked the bottom of this cycle, or if a steeper drop is still ahead. Based on his reading of the data, he leans toward more downside.
PlanB’s view is based on a chart that tracks how much of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. In past bear markets, major bottoms usually formed when only a small number of holders were in profit and fear was widespread. Right now, data shows a higher percentage of holders are still in profit compared to those historical low points. PlanB says this means the market hasn’t yet experienced the full panic—or capitulation—that typically signals a true bottom.
He puts the odds of prices falling further at over 50%, pointing to two long-term indicators as possible landing zones. The 200-week moving average is near $61,000 and has acted as strong support in past downturns. The realized price, which reflects the average cost basis across all Bitcoin holders, is around $53,000.
Trader Ted Pillow highlighted a nearer-term level to watch. He said a daily close below $70,000 could trigger a fresh wave of selling, noting that this level has held up under repeated pressure in recent weeks. Losing it would likely shake the confidence of short-term traders.
The picture from both analysts is one of a market waiting for a cleaner sell-off before conditions are right for a sustained recovery. Open interest in derivatives remains low, sentiment is fragile, and the percentage of holders in profit hasn’t dropped to the lows that have historically marked cycle bottoms. PlanB said prices could fall below $61,000, with the 200-week moving average as the first major test and the realized price near $53,000 as a deeper support level. Bitcoin would need to move toward one of these levels for the current setup to more closely match the bottoming patterns seen in previous cycles.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the topic Is the Bitcoin bottom still ahead An analyst says theres a higher chance it could drop below 61000
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does Bitcoin bottom mean
The bottom is the lowest price Bitcoin is expected to reach before it starts going back up again If we havent hit the bottom yet prices might fall further
2 Why is everyone talking about 61000
An analyst recently said there is a higher probability that Bitcoins price will drop below 61000 before it recovers That number is seen as a key support levelif it breaks the price could go lower
3 Does this mean I should sell my Bitcoin right now
Not necessarily Analyst predictions are just guesses not guarantees If you believe in Bitcoin longterm a shortterm drop might not matter However if you need the money soon its wise to be cautious
4 How likely is it that Bitcoin will actually drop below 61000
The analyst said there is a higher chance than before but no one knows for sure Market conditions can change quickly based on news regulations or large investors buying or selling
5 What usually happens after Bitcoin hits a bottom
Historically after finding a bottom Bitcoin often enters a period of sideways movement before starting a new upward trend It rarely shoots straight up
Advanced Questions
6 What technical or onchain indicators suggest the bottom isnt in yet
Analysts often look at falling trading volume decreasing active addresses or Bitcoin flowing onto exchanges A drop below key moving averages also suggests more downside risk
7 If Bitcoin drops below 61000 what is the next major support level
If 61000 breaks the next strong support is often around 5500057000 Below that the 50000 psychological level becomes critical
8 How does the analysts prediction differ from a regular market rumor
A good analyst bases predictions on data rather than just opinion However even datadriven predictions can be wrongthey are educated probabilities