According to analyst Willy Woo, Bitcoin is still far from showing the three signals that have typically marked the end of bear markets.
In a new post on X, Woo outlined these historical signals. The first is the price rising above the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs)—investors who bought their coins within the last 155 days. This level represents the break-even point for recent buyers.
A chart shared by Woo shows that during past bear markets, Bitcoin fell below the STH cost basis and stayed there, leaving new investors at a loss. Bitcoin dipped below this level again in late 2025 and has remained under it since, with the gap widening. Historically, the end of bear markets has been signaled when Bitcoin’s price climbs back above the STH cost basis.
The second signal is fresh buying from investors, which leads to the third: a reversal in the downtrend of the STH average acquisition price. During bear markets, the STH cost basis trends downward as coins are traded at lower prices. When the market begins to shift away from the bear phase, buying at higher prices pushes this average cost basis upward.
In response to a user’s question, Woo added that since the price is still well below the cost basis of recent investors—and that cost basis is declining daily—there’s little incentive to buy until a crossover seems imminent. He emphasized that bear markets require patience.
Currently, the Bitcoin STH cost basis is around $81,000, meaning recent buyers are sitting on an average unrealized loss of over 14%. It remains to be seen how long it will take for Bitcoin to break back above this level.
After ending last week below $67,000, Bitcoin has recovered to start this Monday, trading around $69,500.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Identifying the End of a Bear Market for Bitcoin
Beginner Questions
What is a bear market
A bear market is a prolonged period of declining asset prices typically marked by widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment
What are the three signals mentioned that indicate a bear market might be ending
While the specific three signals can vary among analysts common ones include a sustained surge in trading volume a decisive break above key longterm resistance levels and a significant shift in market sentiment from fear to greed or optimism
Why is it important to know if a bear market is ending
Identifying a potential end can help investors make more informed decisions about when to start cautiously investing or adjusting their longterm strategies rather than reacting purely to fear
If Bitcoin hasnt shown these signals does that mean the bear market is definitely not over
Not necessarily While these signals are strong historical indicators markets are unpredictable A bear market could end through other mechanisms or events not captured by these specific signals Their absence suggests caution is still warranted
As a beginner what should I do if I hear about bear market end signals
Focus on education and risk management first Dont make impulsive investments based solely on predictions Consider dollarcost averaging to avoid trying to time the exact market bottom
Advanced Practical Questions
What are some specific examples of these end signals from past Bitcoin cycles
Historically bottoms have often coincided with 1 Capitulation Volume Extremely high selling volume followed by a period of low consolidating volume 2 Onchain metrics Longterm holders accumulating and a decrease in coins moving to exchanges 3 Macro convergence A shift in broader financial conditions
Could Bitcoin be in a new kind of cycle where old signals dont apply
Its possible As the market matures with institutional involvement and new financial products the dynamics can change Analysts constantly debate which indicators remain most relevant
What are common pitfalls in trying to call a market bottom
The biggest pitfalls are