An analyst has outlined a potential timeline for Bitcoin’s bottom based on historical price patterns across market cycles.
In a recent X thread, analyst Ali Martinez noted that Bitcoin’s major cycles have shown a surprisingly consistent rhythm in both timing and depth. The chart he shared illustrates similarities across recent cycles, indicating that Bitcoin’s quarterly price has taken roughly 1,064 days to go from the bottom of a bear market to the next peak—assuming the recent high above $126,000 marks the top of the current cycle.
Additionally, the decline from peak to bottom lasted about 364 days in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin is now within that 364-day correction window, pointing toward a potential bottom around October 2026.
Martinez also highlighted a possible price target based on previous bear market drawdowns: 84.22% in 2018 and 77.57% in 2022. Applying a 70% decline from the current cycle’s high would place Bitcoin around $37,500.
While the long-term trend is analyzed using quarterly prices, Martinez also examined short-term movements. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin appears to have been trading within a Parallel Channel in recent weeks, bouncing off the lower support line last week before returning to the middle of the channel—indicating no clear directional bias at the moment.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading near $87,300, up 0.7% over the past week.
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoins Potential Low Point
Beginner Questions
Q What does it mean when people talk about Bitcoin hitting its lowest point
A It refers to a potential future point in time when Bitcoins price might reach its lowest value in a market cycle before starting to recover or rise again
Q Who is saying Bitcoins lowest point could be October 2026
A Some financial analysts looking at historical price patterns have suggested this timeframe Its a prediction not a guarantee
Q Why would Bitcoins price drop to a low point
A Cryptocurrency markets go through cycles of boom and bust due to factors like investor sentiment regulation global economics and adoption rates
Q Should I sell my Bitcoin if I hear it might drop in 2026
A Not necessarily Predictions are uncertain Many investors use longterm strategies and dont try to time exact highs and lows which is very difficult
Q Is October 2026 a confirmed date
A No Its an analysts projection based on past trends The market is unpredictable and many factors could change the timeline
Advanced Practical Questions
Q What historical trends is this analyst likely referencing
A They are likely comparing the timing of past crypto winters and the multiyear cycles between major Bitcoin price peaks and subsequent bottoms
Q How reliable are these cyclebased predictions
A They offer a framework based on past behavior but history doesnt always repeat exactly Unforeseen events can disrupt these patterns
Q What are other experts saying
A Opinions vary widely Some analysts agree with a prolonged cycle others believe different models suggest earlier bottoms and many caution against relying on any single prediction
Q What typically happens after Bitcoin hits a cycle low
A Historically a period of accumulation follows eventually leading into a new bull market However the duration and timing are never the same
Q As an investor what should I do with this information
A Use it as one data point among many Consider your own financial goals risk