XRP is showing strength as the market recovers from February’s lows, with the price climbing above $1.46 and derivatives activity picking up again on major exchanges. On the surface, this looks positive—but a CryptoQuant report that tracks the flow data behind the price action has found a structural divergence that makes the straightforward bullish view much more complicated.
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The open interest picture confirms that leverage is returning. On Binance, XRP open interest has risen from about 207 million on April 30 to nearly 232 million today—a significant increase in derivatives positions over a short time, reflecting growing trader involvement as the price recovers. By itself, rising open interest during a price increase is a normal sign of a strengthening market.
The CryptoQuant analysis goes beyond the open interest number to look at what’s driving it—and that’s where the divergence appears. The relationship between price action, spot demand, and perpetual futures flow isn’t telling one clear story. It’s telling three different stories at once, and the gap between them is the signal that determines whether this move is a genuine recovery or a derivatives-driven advance without the underlying demand to support it. Understanding which story the data ultimately backs is what separates a breakout from a headfake—and that’s the question the CryptoQuant report aims to answer.
Price Up. Spot Demand Flat. Futures Fighting the Move. This Is Not a Clean Breakout
The CryptoQuant data pinpoints the specific tension beneath XRP’s advance with precision. Binance Perpetual CVD has dropped to about -$434 million—its lowest current reading—even as open interest on the same exchange keeps climbing. Two metrics moving in opposite directions on the same platform confirm the key finding: perpetual futures traders aren’t riding the price recovery. They’re selling into it, or at least positioning defensively against it.
The spot market adds another layer of concern. All CEX Estimated Spot CVD has fallen to about $575 million, even though XRP has pushed above $1.46. If the move were driven by genuine, broad-based spot accumulation, that number would be rising along with the price. It isn’t—which weakens the case that real underlying demand is powering the advance.
The leverage rebuild isn’t limited to Binance. On May 11 alone, open interest increased by about $18 million on Binance, $10.4 million on OKX, and $8.5 million on Bybit—a combined $36.9 million added across three major venues in a single session. Derivatives participation is expanding across the ecosystem at the same time.
The structure that emerges from all three data points is specific and honest. Price is rising. Leverage is rebuilding. Spot demand is not following. That combination doesn’t describe a bullish breakout—it describes a derivatives stress test, where the market is figuring out whether organic demand is strong enough to validate a move that futures positioning is currently fighting rather than supporting.
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XRP Holds Recovery Structure While Bulls Test Key Resistance
XRP is trading around $1.44 after spending several weeks consolidating above the critical support zone that formed following February’s capitulation event. The chart shows a market trying to move from defensive stabilization into early recovery, but momentum remains limited beneath a major resistance cluster.
Technically, XRP has improved considerably from the February lows near $1.10. Buyers successfully reclaimed the 50-day moving average and pushed the price back into the $1.40–$1.50 region, which now serves as the most important short-term battleground. That area has repeatedly rejected upside attempts since.March shows that supply remains active whenever XRP approaches breakout territory. Related Reading: 14,600 Bitcoin Sold for Profit in One Day – Here’s How BTC’s Own Structure Pushed It Below $80K
At the same time, sellers haven’t been able to force a major breakdown, even after several pullbacks. XRP keeps forming higher lows since its April bottom, and the short-term moving average is starting to flatten out below the price. This suggests that bearish momentum is slowly weakening, not speeding up.
Volume also supports the idea of consolidation. Trading activity is far below the panic-driven spikes seen during February’s crash, which means the market has moved past forced liquidations and into a more balanced state. Still, the overall structure remains fragile as XRP trades below its 100-day and 200-day moving averages. However, if buyers can reclaim and hold above the $1.50 level, the next upside target would likely be around $1.65 to $1.70.
Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the headline XRP hits 146 even after 434 million in futures selling heres what could happen next
Beginner Questions
1 What does futures selling mean and why is 434 million a big deal
Futures selling means traders are betting that XRPs price will go down in the future 434 million is a huge amount so normally that much selling pressure would crash the price The fact that XRP went up instead is very unusual
2 If so many people were selling how did XRPs price go up to 146
The buyers were stronger than the sellers It means theres a lot of demand from people who want to buy XRP right now which overwhelmed the futures sellers This is called a short squeeze or just strong market momentum
3 Is 146 a good price for XRP Should I buy now
146 is a significant levelits a multiyear high Whether its a good price depends on your goals Its not cheap but if the rally continues it could go higher Always do your own research and never invest money you cant lose
4 What could happen next to XRPs price
Two main things 1 The rally could continue if more buyers step in pushing the price toward 2 2 The futures sellers could be forced to buy back XRP which could cause a short squeeze and send the price even higher Or the price could drop if the selling pressure finally wins
Intermediate Questions
5 What is a short squeeze and could it happen to XRP right now
A short squeeze happens when a price goes up forcing traders who bet against it to buy back the asset to limit their losses This buying pushes the price up even more Yes with 434 million in shorts if XRP keeps rising a massive short squeeze is very possible
6 Why would futures sellers keep selling if the price is going up
They might be stubborn thinking the price is overvalued and will fall soon Or they might be hedging other positions However if the price keeps