Bitcoin started the week strong, rebounding to nearly $74,000 on Wednesday for the first time in over a month. However, by the week’s end, that momentum had faded, with the price falling back to around $68,260. Despite this volatility, on-chain analytics firm Amber Data maintains a constructive long-term outlook for Bitcoin, suggesting new all-time highs are still possible this year.
A Post-Liquidation Reset
Amber Data describes Bitcoin as entering 2026 in an unusual position. The market has been “de-risked” following a major liquidation event in October, which they say flushed out excessive leverage. The firm’s report notes that open interest had reached unsustainable levels, the basis trade was overcrowded, and funding rates indicated stretched positioning. When news about former President Donald Trump’s tariff policies hit, this overleveraged market couldn’t withstand the selling pressure, triggering a cascade of liquidations that reset market positioning.
While painful, this correction served a purpose. Valuations have normalized, leverage has been largely cleared, and the overall market structure now appears healthier. However, the recovery remains fragile. Liquidity is still thin, and the once-popular carry trade is no longer especially attractive. In Amber Data’s view, the market is structurally sound but lacks a clear catalyst for its next major move.
A ‘Muddle Through’ Phase
Amber Data’s base case, which it assigns a 50% probability, sees Bitcoin trading between $90,000 and $120,000. This scenario involves extended consolidation until a significant macroeconomic catalyst emerges. In this “muddle through” phase, conditions neither dramatically worsen nor significantly improve. Volatility decreases, enthusiasm cools, and both bullish and bearish predictions are repeatedly proven wrong.
Early signs of this scenario would include basis annual percentage rates recovering to 8–10%, consistent positive inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, order book depth returning to pre-crash levels, and funding rates stabilizing in positive territory.
A 25% Chance of a Breakout to $180,000
The firm assigns a 25% probability to a more optimistic outcome where Bitcoin climbs to between $120,000 and $180,000. In this bull case, accelerated institutional participation combines with sovereign adoption, creating a feedback loop of expanding capital flows.
Early confirmation would include weekly Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $1 billion, basis rates expanding beyond 15% as leverage demand surges, and new accumulation patterns in HODL wave data indicating fresh capital entering the market at scale.
Bear Case Targets $60,000
On the downside, Amber Data gives a 20% probability to a bearish scenario where Bitcoin trades between $60,000 and $80,000. This would occur if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate more sharply than expected and global markets shift decisively into risk-off mode.
Warning signs would include sustained ETF outflows exceeding $1 billion per week, basis yields collapsing below 3%, widespread stablecoin redemptions signaling capital flight, and a potential test of the $80,000 ETF cost basis level.
Finally, the firm outlines a low-probability (5%) “volatility and chop” scenario, where Bitcoin trades erratically between $75,000 and $110,000 without a sustained trend. Indicators would include wildly fluctuating funding rates, repeated spikes and collapses in open interest, and inconsistent ETF flows alternating between inflows and outflows.The inflows and outflows show no clear trend. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the prediction that Bitcoin could reach 180000 this year based on the analysis from Amber Data
Beginner General Questions
1 Whats the big news about Bitcoin and 180000
A financial data firm called Amber Data has predicted that Bitcoins price could surge to 180000 by the end of this year but only if a specific key condition is met
2 What is the one condition needed for Bitcoin to hit 180000
The condition is that US Spot Bitcoin ETFs need to see sustained massive net inflows of investor money similar to the huge demand seen when gold ETFs were first launched
3 What is a Spot Bitcoin ETF
Its an exchangetraded fund that holds actual Bitcoin It allows regular investors to buy exposure to Bitcoins price through their normal stock brokerage account without having to buy and store the cryptocurrency themselves
4 Why would a Bitcoin ETF cause the price to go up so much
ETFs make investing in Bitcoin much easier for big institutions and everyday people This could bring a flood of new money into the market High demand with a limited supply of Bitcoin typically pushes the price up
5 Is this prediction a guarantee
No it is absolutely not a guarantee Its an analysts forecast based on a specific scenario The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and many factors could prevent this from happening
Advanced Detailed Questions
6 How does Amber Datas comparison to gold ETFs work
When gold ETFs launched they attracted enormous investment which helped drive up golds price over time Amber Datas model applies a similar growth trajectory to Bitcoin ETFs estimating how much capital could flow in and what that would do to Bitcoins price
7 What are net inflows and why are they so critical
Net inflows means more new money is entering the Bitcoin ETFs than is leaving them For the 180K target inflows need to be consistently large If inflows are weak or money starts flowing out the predicted price surge would not happen
8 What are the biggest risks that could prevent this price target
Key risks include a sharp drop in ETF inflows negative new regulations a major security