After rebounding 2.6% from recent lows, Bitcoin (BTC) is trying to establish the $82,000-$83,000 zone as a support level. Analysts caution that the cryptocurrency must hold key long-term support levels to avoid confirming a bearish downturn.
On Thursday, Bitcoin fell sharply along with the broader market, dropping nearly 9% in a single day to around $81,314. Since early November, BTC had been trading between $86,000 and $93,500. Despite ongoing volatility, it had managed to stay above the lower end of this two-month range on weekly charts—until now.
Currently, Bitcoin has broken below this important daily support level. If it fails to recover above $86,000 by the end of the week, it risks a steeper correction.
As prices hover near levels last seen in late November, one market observer has pointed out that Bitcoin has now closed below its 100-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Analyst Ted Pillows noted that the last two times this happened—in 2018 and 2022—Bitcoin fell 50% within just 4 to 6 weeks.
Pillows also highlighted a recurring historical pattern, comparing the 2017-2018 and 2021-2022 market cycles. His chart shows an eight-year ascending trendline that marked the peak in both 2017 and 2021. Following the 2018 peak, Bitcoin corrected 83.11% from that trendline; after the 2021 top, it fell 77.57%.
This pattern has formed a rising support line that has historically aligned with Bitcoin’s bear market lows. Now, with Bitcoin appearing to have topped near the same trendline once again, Pillows suggests that—if history repeats—the cryptocurrency could retreat by up to 76.88%, potentially reaching around $30,000 by 2026.
Meanwhile, analyst Rekt Capital shared his view on Bitcoin’s recent pullback, noting that BTC has broken below its weekly trading range and is retesting the $82,500 bottom of what he calls a “Macro Triangle” formation.
According to his analysis, Bitcoin has been forming a triangle pattern on monthly charts since mid-2024, similar to the pattern that preceded the 2021-2022 bear market. The price action has closely mirrored that period, respecting both macro support and a descending resistance line.
Rekt Capital warned that a breakdown below the triangle’s support “would confirm Bearish Acceleration.” For the bull market to resume, Bitcoin would need to break and hold above the long-term descending resistance on higher timeframes.
“Until then, we have more evidence that maybe we will be following 2021 [performance]… It’s just a little bit more compressed,” he added.
He also pointed out that Bitcoin is showing a similar crossover of key bull market EMAs that occurred early in the last bear market. While this crossover doesn’t necessarily predict further downside, it “is effectively confirming weakness, kind of responding to the weakness that we are already seeing and have seen for a while.”
Rekt Capital concluded, “History is suggesting to us that if we continue to make these macro lower highs, which are a result of weakening demand at historical support regions, then there’s more reason to be bearish rather than bullish.”
Frequently Asked Questions
Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin Dropping to 30000
Basics Context
Q What does Bitcoin to 30000 mean
A It means Bitcoins price has fallen to around 30000 USD per coin This is often discussed as a key psychological and technical support level that if broken could lead to further declines
Q Why are analysts warning of a deeper drop
A Analysts look at market trends trading volumes and historical patterns If Bitcoin fails to hold support at 30000 they predict it could fall furtherpossibly to 25000 or lowerbased on chart analysis and broader market sentiment
Q Is 30000 considered cheap or expensive for Bitcoin
A It depends on your perspective Compared to its alltime high near 69000 its much lower Compared to its price 35 years ago its still high Value is relative to your investment timeframe and goals
Reasons Market Dynamics
Q What typically causes Bitcoins price to drop like this
A Common reasons include broader stock market downturns negative regulatory news large investors selling reduced risk appetite among traders or negative sentiment following major events
Q Are drops to 30k normal for Bitcoin
A Yes Bitcoin is historically volatile It has experienced multiple drawdowns of 50 or more throughout its history Sharp corrections are common within longerterm bull or bear cycles
Q Does this drop mean Bitcoin is failing
A Not necessarily Price volatility is a feature of its current market phase Many proponents see these corrections as healthy consolidations before potential future growth though theres no guarantee
Investment Strategy
Q Should I buy Bitcoin now that its at 30000
A This is personal financial advice we cant give Some investors see dips as buying opportunities but you should only invest money you can afford to lose and consider your own research risk tolerance and investment strategy
Q I bought at a higher priceshould I sell now to avoid more loss
A Selling at a loss locks in the loss Many longterm investors choose to