Talla daga mai nazarin sarkar on-chain Axel Adler Jr. ta ranar 15 ga Mayu ta nuna cewa Bitcoin ta kasa karya matakin $82,000 sau uku, inda masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci suka ci gaba da sayarwa yayin hauhawar farashi. Wannan yanayi ya haifar da matsananciyar matsin lamba na fasaha da ɗabi'a, inda matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki 200 (200-day SMA) ke aiki a matsayin juriya, kuma ma'aunin riba na masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci ya kasance a kusa da matakin daidaitawa.
A cikin sabon saƙon safiya na Bitcoin, Adler ya bayyana cewa yanayin na yanzu ya wuce gwajin juriya na yau da kullun. Farashin ya tsaya tsakanin ainihin farashin sayan masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci da 200-day SMA, kuma duk wani tashin farashi yana haifar da amsa ɗaya daga masu siye na baya-bayan nan: suna sayarwa maimakon nuna sabon kwarin gwiwa. "Farashin ya makale tsakanin matakin ainihin farashin sayan masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci da 200-day SMA, kuma duk wani tashin farashi yana fuskantar amsa iri ɗaya: masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci suna amfani da ƙarfin farashin don fita, suna hana kasuwa motsawa sama," in ji Adler. "Tare, jadawalin biyu sun nuna ba kawai juriya ta fasaha ba, amma tarko na ɗabi'a."
Mahimmin matakin a cikin binciken Adler shine $82,100, wanda shine 200-day SMA kuma iyakar sama na yankin juriya na yanzu. Bitcoin ta tunkari wannan matakin sau uku tun daga Afrilu 2026, amma kowane ƙoƙari ya ƙare da ja da baya. A ƙarƙashin farashin na yanzu, Adler ya nuna STH 1W-1M Realized Price a $77,900 a matsayin babban matakin tallafi, yana barin Bitcoin a matse cikin kusan $4,200.
Wannan kewayon yana da mahimmanci saboda yana haɗa alamar yanayin da ake kallo sosai tare da ainihin farashin sayan masu shiga kasuwa na baya-bayan nan. A ra'ayin Adler, rashin ƙarar hauhawar farashi na ban mamaki yayin ƙoƙarin hauhawar da bai yi nasara ba yana nuna cewa masu siye ba su da ƙarfin shawo kan wadatar da ake bayarwa a kusa da saman kewayon. "Muddin farashin ya kasance ƙasa da $82.1K, tsarin juriya yana nan daram," in ji saƙon. "Tabbatar da canjin tsarin zai buƙaci rufewar yini mai ƙarfi sama da 200-day SMA tare da ƙarar hauhawar farashi. Idan ba haka ba, kowane tashin farashi yana zama damar sayarwa."
Bitcoin STH SOPR Ya Kasance Ma'aunin Matsin Kasuwa
Kashi na biyu na hujjar Adler ya mayar da hankali kan STH SOPR na masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, ma'auni da ke bin diddigin ko ana sayar da tsabar kudi da aka motsa kwanan nan da riba ko asara. A cewar saƙon, STH SOPR ya farfado daga matsanancin ƙarancin da aka gani a watan Fabrairu 2026, amma har yanzu ya kasa tsayawa sama da matakin 1.0. Wannan matakin yana da mahimmanci ga binciken na yanzu.
Lokacin da STH SOPR ya matsa zuwa 1.0 sannan ya faɗi, yana nuna cewa masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci suna amfani da hauhawar farashi don sayarwa a kusa da matakin daidaitawa maimakon riƙewa don ƙarin riba. Adler ya lura cewa duka matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki bakwai da 30 suna kusa da wannan iyaka, yana ƙarfafa ra'ayin cewa wadata tana bayyana daidai inda hauhawar farashi mai ƙarfi zai buƙaci tabbaci. "Duk lokacin da farashin ya yi ƙoƙarin tashi, SOPR yana motsawa sama zuwa 1.0, sannan ya sake faɗi da sauri," in ji Adler. "Wannan yana nufin cewa masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci suna amfani da hauhawar farashi don fita maimakon riƙe matsayi a cikin tsammanin ƙarin hauhawa. Wannan tsari alama ce ta kasuwa inda wadata ke mamaye buƙata a yankin daidaitawa."
Hulɗar tsakanin jadawalin biyu ita ce babban batun saƙon. Adler yayi jayayya cewa ƙoƙarin hauhawar da bai yi nasara ba a kusa da $82,100 ya kasance tare da STH SOPR yana matsawa zuwa 1.0 sannan ya koma baya, yana mai da yankin juriya duka na fasaha da ɗabi'a. 200-day SMA yana ayyana shingen jadawali, yayin da sayar da masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci ke taimakawa wajen aiwatar da shi. "Wannan ba daidaituwa ba ce, amma tsari ne," in ji Adler. "Juriya a $82.1K ana kiyaye shi ba kawai ta hanyar fasaha ta 200-day SMA ba, har ma ta hanyar ɗabi'a — ta masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, waɗanda ke amfani da wannan yanki don sayarwa duk lokacin da kasuwa ta yi ƙoƙarin motsawa sama."
Yanayin Fashewa Ya Kasance Mai Ƙunci
Ga Adler, abin da ke haifar da hauhawar farashi a bayyane yake amma ba a tabbatar ba. Bitcoin zai buƙaci rufewar yini mai ƙarfi sama da $82,100, tare da goyan bayan ƙarar hauhawar farashi. A halin yanzu, matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki bakwai na STH SOPR zai buƙaci tsayawa sama da 1.0 na kwanaki da yawa a jere. Wannan haɗin zai nuna ba kawai fashewar fasaha sama da 200-day SMA ba, har ma da canji a ɗabi'ar masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci—daga sayarwa a matakin daidaitawa zuwa riƙe matsayi da riba. Har sai hakan ya faru, yanayin na yanzu ya kasance tsaka tsaki tare da hangen nesa na taka tsantsan. Ƙin yarda na huɗu a kusa da wannan yanki zai iya tura farashin zuwa $77.9K, wanda Adler ya gano a matsayin babban matakin tallafi ga masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci. Idan wannan tallafi ya gaza, rahoton ya yi gargadin cewa ƙananan matakan tallafi na iya dawowa. A wasu kalmomi, kasuwa ba kawai tana jiran farashin ya fashe ta layi a kan jadawali ba. Tana jiran masu siye na baya-bayan nan su daina ɗaukar wannan layi a matsayin mafita. A lokacin buga wannan rahoto, BTC yana ciniki a $80,453. Hoton da aka nuna an ƙirƙira shi da DALL.E, jadawali daga TradingView.com.
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa game da gazawar Bitcoin ta karya 82000 sau uku, tare da mai da hankali kan sayar da masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci
Tambayoyin Matakin Farko
1 Me yasa Bitcoin ba zai iya wuce 82000 ba
A yanzu, duk lokacin da Bitcoin ta kusanci 82000, mutane da yawa da suka sayi ta kwanan nan sun yanke shawarar sayarwa Wannan yana haifar da katangar matsin sayarwa wanda ke tura farashin ƙasa
2 Menene ma'anar sayar da masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci
Masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci mutane ne da suka sayi Bitcoin kwanan nan Lokacin da farashin ya tashi, suna sayarwa da sauri don samun ƙaramin riba Wannan sayarwa yana hana farashin ƙara tashi
3 Shin yana da kyau cewa Bitcoin ta kasa sau uku
Alama ce ta juriya mai ƙarfi Yana nufin akwai wadata mai yawa a wannan farashin Duk da haka, idan Bitcoin ta iya shawo kan duk waɗannan masu sayarwa, za ta iya fashewa A yanzu, shingen ne mai wuya
4 Shin ya kamata in sayar da Bitcoin na yanzu saboda wannan
Ba lallai ba Wannan aikin farashi ne na yau da kullun Idan kun yi imani da Bitcoin na dogon lokaci, matakan juriya na ɗan gajeren lokaci kamar wannan ƙananan matsaloli ne a hanya Sayarwa cikin firgici yakan haifar da asara
5 Menene matakin juriya
Matsayin farashi ne inda matsin sayarwa ya fi ƙarfin siye 82000 a yanzu yana aiki a matsayin matakin juriya saboda mutane da yawa suna jira su sayar a can
Tambayoyin Matakin Ci Gaba
6 Me yasa masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci ke haifar da wannan gazawar musamman
Masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci suna da ƙarancin farashin sayan su Ba su da himma kamar masu riƙe na dogon lokaci kuma suna iya ɗaukar riba da sauri Lokacin da farashin ya kai burin ribar su, suna zubar da tsabar kudin su, suna haifar da yawan wadata
7 Menene ainihin farashin sayan masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci a nan
Ainihin farashin sayan shine matsakaicin farashin sayan duk tsabar kudi da aka motsa kwanan nan Idan farashin na yanzu ya fi wannan ainihin farashin sayan sosai, masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci suna da babban ribar takarda wanda ke ƙarfafa su su sayar
8 Shin wannan gazawar sau uku na iya haifar da fashewa ko rushewa
Dukansu biyu suna yiwuwa A