Veteran crypto analyst Bob Loukas says Bitcoin has entered the final stage of its current four-year cycle, but warns the market may still need to drop further before a lasting cycle bottom is in place. In his latest “4-Year Journey” update, published on June 4, Loukas described Bitcoin’s recent retest of its February lows as largely expected, not a departure from historical cycle patterns. He argued that Bitcoin’s rebound into May—when prices neared the low $80,000 range after falling toward $60,000 in February—looked like a countertrend move within a broader bear market. “A cycle very rarely, and I mean less than 10%, probably more like 5%, ends very early and on the first major drop from the high,” Loukas said. “There’s always a retest. There’s usually at least one lower low, if not a second one.”
Loukas noted that Bitcoin peaked in October and later fell below its 10-month moving average, which he sees as confirmation that the previous cycle’s rally was over. The drop into February, he said, was followed by a natural relief rally that attracted bulls expecting a quick return to earlier highs. That rally stalled near $83,000, close to the $85,000 area he had predicted, before Bitcoin reversed and fell about 25% back toward the February lows.
Despite believing Bitcoin may not have hit its cycle low yet, Loukas said his model portfolio has made its first purchase in three and a half years. The portfolio bought 10 Bitcoin at $65,000, bringing its allocation to roughly 58% Bitcoin and 41% cash. He stressed this wasn’t a call that the bottom is in, but rather an attempt to start buying again at more favorable long-term prices.
According to Loukas, the key level to watch now is $53,000. He said if Bitcoin reaches that area, the model portfolio would use its remaining cash to go back to a full Bitcoin allocation. This level matters because it roughly matches the midpoint of the broader four-year cycle. “Right now, what I think is the best strategy—and this can always change—is that at $53,000, we use all remaining cash to buy the rest of the Bitcoin and get back to 100% allocation,” Loukas said. “At $53,000, we’re hitting the midpoint of the entire four-year cycle.”
He acknowledged that $53,000 might seem severe, but argued it’s not extreme for Bitcoin. From current levels, he said, that would be only about 15% lower, while Bitcoin had already dropped around $20,000 in the previous two to three weeks. He also pointed out that past bear markets saw much bigger declines, like a 77% drop from peak to trough in the 2021–2022 cycle, compared to the current decline of roughly 51% to 52%. Loukas said a 65% to 70% drop wouldn’t be a prediction, but “shouldn’t come as a surprise” given Bitcoin’s history of volatility. A move to $53,000, by his estimate, would be about a 57% decline from the cycle high.
Loukas also allowed for a more optimistic scenario. He said the current retest creates the first real chance of a shorter four-year cycle low, possibly forming as a double bottom before building a base into late summer and later pushing above the May highs. He gave that outcome a relatively low probability of around 25%. His main expectation remains that Bitcoin’s cycle low will form closer to the usual window around October or November, with December also possible. Loukas said Bitcoin is now in month 43 of the cycle, entering the broad zone where four-year lows typically appear around the 47- to 48-month average. “The window has been hit,” Loukas said. “The four-year cycle is now getting close to that point.”an end. But as I mentioned before, this is no different from previous cycles.” In the short term, Loukas said Bitcoin is oversold enough to bounce back, possibly toward the 10-week moving average around $73,000, before continuing lower. He also argued that Bitcoin shouldn’t trade back above the May high near $83,000 to $85,000 over the next few months unless a new cycle has already started. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $62,247. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the prediction that Bitcoin could hit 53000 as the final stage of the cycle begins
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does the final stage of the cycle mean for Bitcoin
It means the last big price surge before the market enters a longerterm slowdown or bear market Historically Bitcoin moves in cycles of growth a peak and then a drop
2 Is it guaranteed that Bitcoin will hit 53000
No This is just one analysts prediction Cryptocurrency prices are very volatile and can go up or down quickly
3 If Bitcoin reaches 53000 should I buy right now
Not necessarily Buying based on a single prediction is risky Its better to do your own research and only invest money you can afford to lose
4 What is a veteran analyst
Its an experienced expert who has studied Bitcoin and the crypto market for many years Their predictions are based on past patterns and data not just guesses
5 How is 53000 different from Bitcoins alltime high
Bitcoins alltime high was around 69000 in 2021 So 53000 is lower than that peak The analyst is predicting a strong rally but not a new record
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What specific indicators suggest we are in the final stage of the cycle
Analysts often look at onchain metrics like the MVRV ZScore the Puell Multiple and the 200week moving average These tools historically signal when a cycle is near its peak
7 How does the Bitcoin halving affect this final stage prediction
The halving reduces the supply of new Bitcoin Historically the biggest price gains happen 618 months after a halving This prediction suggests we are entering that posthalving rally phase
8 Could external factors stop the rally to 53000
Yes A major regulatory crackdown a global recession or a sudden crash in the stock market could disrupt the cycle and prevent the price from reaching that target
9 What would happen if Bitcoin breaks above 53000
If it breaks that level with strong trading