Crypto analyst Crypto Rover has pointed to a trendline that Bitcoin has never broken below in any market cycle. The leading cryptocurrency has now touched this trendline, raising hopes that it could bounce from this level, just as it has in previous bear cycles.
Bitcoin Touches Trendline That Has Led to Parabolic Rallies
In a post on X, Crypto Rover revealed that Bitcoin has once again touched a trendline it hasn’t broken below in nine years. In the past, whenever BTC has hit this trendline, it has gone on to see massive price surges. For example, in 2017, it rallied 1,300% after touching the trendline; in 2018, it surged 1,900%; in 2020, it saw another 1,900% rally; and in 2022, it jumped 700% after touching it.
Now, Bitcoin has touched this trendline again, sparking optimism that it could bounce from this area like it has in past cycles. However, in another post on X, Crypto Rover suggested that BTC hasn’t found a bottom yet and could still drop below $60,000 before it does. This comment came as he referenced Bitcoin’s realized price.
He noted that the short-term holders’ (STH) realized price of $74,000 has already been reached, but the realized price of $53,600 and the long-term holders’ (LTH) realized price of $50,000 have not. Crypto Rover added that every previous cycle bottom has traded below the realized price, and every major market flush has touched the LTH line. Because of this, BTC is likely to see another drop before hitting a bottom.
Bitcoin is also at risk of further decline as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate again. The U.S. carried out strikes on military targets in Iran, which led to retaliatory attacks on U.S. military bases in the Gulf region.
A Drop Below $50,000 Is Also Possible
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has suggested that Bitcoin could still fall below $50,000. He pointed to the Investor Price, which he noted is currently $48,300, and said this level is a key area he’s watching for long-term accumulation. Martinez described this metric as one of the most important on-chain indicators for BTC.
He explained that the Investor Price measures the average purchase price of all economically active Bitcoin, excluding coins that are permanently lost, to give a more realistic market-wide cost basis. However, it’s worth noting that Martinez had earlier said there were signs Bitcoin might be nearing a market bottom. He pointed to the 1.0-0.8 MVRV bands, which align at $53,900 and $43,150.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $62,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the concept of Bitcoin has never broken this line before and the price just touched it again written in a natural userfriendly tone
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q I keep hearing Bitcoin hasnt broken this line What does that mean
A It means theres a specific price level that Bitcoin has bounced off of many times in the past but never fallen below When the price touches it again traders think it might bounce back upor finally break through
Q Is this a line drawn on a chart Who decides where it is
A Yes its a line on a price chart No one decides ittraders draw it based on past prices where Bitcoin reversed direction Its a trend line or support level that has held up over months or years
Q If its never broken before does that mean its guaranteed to hold now
A No Never broken just means it has a strong history But history isnt a promise The price could finally break through this time which would be a big deal
Q What happens if Bitcoin breaks below that line
A If it breaks and stays below it could mean a big price drop Many traders would panicsell and the line could become a new ceiling instead of a floor
Q Should I buy Bitcoin right now because it touched this line
A Not necessarily Touching a support line can be a buy signal but its risky Many traders wait to see if the price bounces up first Never invest money you cant afford to lose
AdvancedLevel Questions
Q What specific line are people usually talking about
A Its often the 200week moving average or a multiyear logarithmic trend line For Bitcoin the 200week MA has historically acted as a floor during bear markets When the price touches it its a major test
Q Why has this line held for so long Is it just luck