On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has noted that accumulation by large Bitcoin holders has remained relatively weak recently.
Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score Struggles to Break 0.5
In a new post on X, Glassnode discussed the latest trend in Bitcoin’s Accumulation Trend Score. This on-chain indicator tracks whether Bitcoin investors are currently accumulating or distributing coins. It calculates its value by analyzing balance changes in investor wallets and also considers wallet size, giving larger entities more influence on the reading.
When the score is above 0.5, it indicates that large investors—or a significant number of smaller ones—are accumulating. The closer the score is to 1, the stronger this behavior. Conversely, a score below 0.5 suggests distribution is dominant, with 0 being the extreme end of that scale.
The chart shared by Glassnode shows how the Accumulation Trend Score has evolved. During Bitcoin’s price crash in November, the score turned a dark purple, indicating a value near 1. This suggests the market responded to the price lows with strong accumulation. While accumulation continued into December, a shift occurred in January as prices recovered; the score turned orange-yellow, reflecting distribution. Bitcoin’s price has declined since that selling pressure began.
Although the recent price drop has been met with some accumulation, the chart shows the indicator’s color has remained red. “The Accumulation Trend Score has struggled to push above 0.5 since early February,” Glassnode noted. While the current value suggests aggressive distribution has subsided, it doesn’t necessarily signal renewed demand for Bitcoin. The firm explained that the trend points to “persistently weak accumulation, particularly among larger entities, signalling that meaningful capital has yet to step back in.”
It remains to be seen how long this neutral market behavior will last and which direction the next shift will take.
BTC Price
Bitcoin briefly fell below $63,000 on Tuesday but has since rebounded to around $65,300.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the concept that Bitcoin has yet to experience a significant return of capital based on analysis from firms like Glassnode
Beginner Conceptual Questions
1 What does return of capital mean in simple terms
Its when investors sell their assets and take their original investment money back out of the market and into cash or stable assets Its the opposite of putting new money in
2 So if theres no significant return of capital where is all the money
The analysis suggests that a large portion of the money invested in Bitcoin is still locked within the Bitcoin ecosystem Instead of cashing out to dollars investors are holding their Bitcoin using it as collateral for loans or moving it between different crypto services
3 Why is this a big deal Isnt people holding Bitcoin a good thing
It is a sign of strong longterm conviction However it also means the market hasnt gone through a classic cycle where early investors massively cash out profits Some analysts see this as a sign of a maturing asset class while others wonder what will happen when that capital eventually does return
4 How do firms like Glassnode even measure this
They use onchain analytics They track the movement of Bitcoin from investor wallets to exchange wallets By analyzing the age and movement of coins they can estimate whether investors are spending or continuing to accumulatehold
Advanced Market Implications Questions
5 Whats the difference between profittaking and a return of capital
ProfitTaking Selling a portion of an asset to realize gains above your initial investment You might sell 20 of your Bitcoin after a rally but keep the rest
Return of Capital Withdrawing the original principal you invested A full return of capital means youve taken your initial cash off the table and are now playing only with house money
6 If capital hasnt returned does that mean this bull market is different from past ones
Potentially yes In past cycles massive profittaking and capital return by early investors marked major market tops The current trend suggests holders have a