Crypto analyst Plan C has pointed to the business cycle as a reason why Bitcoin’s peak has not yet been reached, despite its surge to $126,000 last year. This perspective comes as Bitcoin struggles to maintain support above the key $90,000 level, having given back most of its gains from earlier this year.
In a post on X, Plan C argued that it is premature to call a market top when the business cycle indicator has not yet crossed 50. Historically, Bitcoin bull market peaks have occurred when this cycle reaches between 55 and 65. The latest ISM PMI data, which fell to 47.9 in December, suggests the peak has not arrived.
Plan C was responding to another analyst, Sminston, who also believes the top is not in, noting the ISM PMI remains below 50. Sminston’s chart indicates that Bitcoin typically experiences a parabolic rally once the PMI breaks above 50, with the potential to rise well above $100,000 as it approaches 65—a level that could mark the bull market peak for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to face resistance near $90,000 amid mixed macroeconomic signals. Recent U.S. jobs data have strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady, which is generally seen as a bearish factor for crypto.
According to a Glassnode report, a sustained recovery above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis of $99,100 would be the first meaningful sign of Bitcoin’s recovery, indicating renewed confidence among newer investors. However, Glassnode also warned that the current market structure is starting to resemble previous failed transitions, similar to early 2022. If Bitcoin remains below this threshold, demand could continue to weaken.
CryptoQuant added that large Bitcoin investors are not currently buying the dip, a pattern similar to the period between 2021 and 2022, just before the previous market top.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,500, down slightly over the past 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Price The Business Cycle
Beginner Questions
Q What does it mean that Bitcoin hasnt peaked at 126000 based on the business cycle
A It means that some analysts believe Bitcoins price hasnt reached its highest potential point because the broader economic cycle were in hasnt finished its typical boom phase which often benefits assets like Bitcoin
Q What is a business cycle
A A business cycle is the natural recurring rise and fall of economic growth over time It typically has four phases expansion peak contraction and trough Different types of investments perform better in different phases
Q How is Bitcoins price connected to the business cycle
A During the expansionboom phase investors often have more confidence and seek higherrisk highreward assets The theory suggests we might still be in this phase meaning more money could flow into Bitcoin potentially pushing its price higher
Q Is this a guarantee that Bitcoin will hit 126000
A No it is not a guarantee This is an analysis or prediction based on historical patterns and economic theory Many factors influence Bitcoins price and it is highly volatile
Q Why is 126000 the specific number mentioned
A This is likely a price target from a specific analyst or model Its based on projecting past price patterns and growth rates onto the current cycle
Intermediate Advanced Questions
Q Which phase of the business cycle is supposedly most favorable for Bitcoin
A The late expansion phase when economic growth is strong liquidity is high and investor appetite for risk is increasing This can create a riskon environment where capital flows into speculative assets
Q What are the main risks to this business cycle thesis for Bitcoin
A Key risks include a sharperthanexpected economic downturn prolonged high interest rates major regulatory crackdowns or a shift in investor sentiment away from risk assets
Q Doesnt Bitcoin act as a hedge against inflation Wouldnt that make it peak during contraction
A This is debated While some see it as digital gold