On-chain data indicates that Bitcoin’s price is currently hovering near the cost basis of active investors, putting this group at break-even.
Bitcoin Trades at Active Investors’ Average Cost
In a recent X post, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode provided an update on key Bitcoin pricing levels. Among the four models highlighted, the most fundamental is the Realized Price. This metric tracks the average acquisition price or cost basis of investors across the Bitcoin network. When the spot price is above this level, it signals that holders overall are in a state of net unrealized profit. Conversely, trading below it suggests widespread losses.
The chart shared by Glassnode shows that Bitcoin’s spot price rose above the Realized Price at the start of 2023 and has remained there since. Currently, the Realized Price stands at $56,200, meaning the network as a whole holds significant unrealized profit at today’s prices.
However, the Realized Price includes all circulating tokens—even those lost or inaccessible—making it less relevant outside of bear markets, as the asset seldom interacts with this level. To address this, two other models are used: the True Market Mean and the Active Realized Price. These focus solely on the cost basis of recent market participants.
The True Market Mean currently sits at $81,100, near the low Bitcoin hit during its November crash. Meanwhile, the Active Realized Price is $87,700, around which Bitcoin has been consolidating. With the price currently trading at this active level, investors holding the economically active supply are essentially at break-even.
While active traders as a group are in a neutral position, this isn’t the case for short-term holders (STHs)—addresses that acquired their coins within the last 155 days. The STH Realized Price is currently $99,900, placing this cohort in a state of net loss.
BTC Price
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $87,700, down 2.6% over the past week.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Equilibrium Point
Beginner Questions
1 What is Bitcoins equilibrium point
Its a theoretical price level where the average active trader is neither making a profit nor taking a loss on their positions Its often seen as a point of balance in the market
2 Why is the equilibrium point important
It can signal a potential turning point If the price is significantly above it many traders are in profit and might sell If its far below many are at a loss and might hold or buy more creating potential support
3 How is this equilibrium point calculated
Its typically estimated using onchain data like the average acquisition cost of coins that are actively moving A common metric used is the Realized Price
4 What is the Realized Price
Its the average price at which every coin in circulation was last moved onchain Its often used as a proxy for the average cost basis of the market and is a key benchmark for the equilibrium point
5 Is the equilibrium price the same as the current market price
No The market price is what you see on exchanges The equilibrium price is a separate calculated metric When the market price trades near it it suggests traders are on average at breakeven
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 Whats the difference between equilibrium realized price and cost basis
Cost Basis An individuals average purchase price
Realized Price The networkwide average of all individual cost bases
Equilibrium Point A broader concept often represented by the Realized Price indicating where the aggregate market breaks even
7 How can traders use this concept
As a SupportResistance Zone Prices below the realized price can act as support Prices above can act as resistance
Market Sentiment Gauge A market price far above realized price indicates widespread profit which can precede selloffs Far below indicates widespread loss and potential accumulation
8 What are the limitations of this idea
Its an aggregate metric and doesnt reflect individual behavior