Dogecoin remains stuck in a tightening range just below $0.10, but analyst Lars has updated a technical model he’s been tracking for weeks, suggesting a significant move may be ahead for the meme coin. The catch is that it all depends on one key confirmation that hasn’t yet materialized.
While Bitcoin inflows continue to drive the broader market, Dogecoin has not fully followed that momentum. It briefly climbed above $0.10 in the past day before falling back below, keeping that level as the critical point that will decide whether the price stays range-bound or makes a more decisive move.
In a new chart update on X, analyst Lars explained he has adjusted the starting point of the current trading range, which changes how the compression pattern is read. He is now waiting for what he calls a “TCT model 1 distribution confirmation.” His charts show Dogecoin approaching a pink resistance band between $0.098 and the low $0.10s, sitting above a series of rising lows on the hourly chart. The projected path suggests one more push higher into a third touch of that zone before a potential rejection.
On the 4-hour chart, Lars labels this area a “decisional range” to watch for distribution patterns, emphasizing that without confirmation, there is no clear trade setup.
The $0.098 to $0.100 zone has acted as strong resistance since late March. Dogecoin has been making lower highs while maintaining a stable base, showing sellers are active near resistance but haven’t been able to drive the price much lower. Over the past three days, however, Dogecoin printed a higher high compared to April 6, touching $0.10 as some had anticipated.
In a separate analysis, Lars noted he attempted to short Dogecoin during an extended distribution phase, following a bearish break in structure at the New York market open. While the move initially looked like a confirmation of further downside, he observed two possible explanations: either it was a genuine breakdown with market makers pushing the price lower, or it was a manipulated sell-off possibly tied to Bitcoin accumulation.
Technically, Dogecoin’s signals remain mixed. At the time of writing, 16 indicators point bearish while 14 are bullish, with the RSI holding at a neutral 61.45.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about Dogecoin approaching a crucial turning point with the TCT model designed to be helpful for both beginners and more advanced followers
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is Dogecoin and why is it in the news
Dogecoin is a cryptocurrency that started as a joke based on a popular internet meme but has grown into a major digital asset with a large passionate community Its in the news because analysts are pointing to a potential major price movement based on a new technical pattern
2 What does a crucial turning point mean for Dogecoin
It means that Dogecoins price is at a key level where it could either break out into a significant upward trend or fall back into a downward or sideways trend Its a moment of high uncertainty and high potential
3 What is the TCT Model I keep hearing about it
TCT stands for Trend Confirmation Triangle Its a chart pattern that technical analysts use It looks like a triangle formed by converging price lines and it signals that the market is coiling up building pressure for a big move in one direction once the price breaks out of the triangles boundaries
4 Is this a good time to buy Dogecoin
This is a highrisk highpotential moment Buying at a turning point could lead to large gains if the price breaks upward but it could also lead to quick losses if it breaks downward Never invest more than you can afford to lose especially during volatile periods
5 What would cause Dogecoin to go up from here
A strong upward break could be triggered by positive news a surge in overall crypto market sentiment a key announcement from a prominent supporter like Elon Musk or simply enough buying pressure to push the price above the triangles upper resistance line
Advanced Practical Questions
6 How reliable is the TCT pattern for predicting price
No chart pattern is 100 reliable The TCT model suggests a big move is coming but it does not guarantee the direction Traders watch for a confirmation a strong sustained price move with high volume outside the triangle before considering the breakout valid