Ran Neuner says Bitcoin’s chart is starting to look like the breakdown pattern that led to the 2022 crash, but with one key difference: this time, he believes Michael Saylor’s Strategy might be the market’s most important buyer. In a May 24 interview with Scott Melker, Neuner explained that Bitcoin is in a “very scary structure,” pointing to what he sees as a bear flag that hasn’t broken upward. His concern isn’t just technical—it’s also about whether Strategy can keep raising money through STRC, a preferred-stock tool that Neuner thinks is crucial for Saylor to buy more Bitcoin.
“If history repeats, then we should break down or could break down below this,” Neuner said, referring to Bitcoin’s current chart pattern. “I hate saying it because I don’t even want to admit it to myself, but if it happens, it’s definitely going down to the $40,000s or $50,000s.” His argument is based on a comparison with 2022. Neuner noted that Bitcoin dropped, formed a bear flag, tested its 200-day moving average, and then fell further after failing to reclaim that level. He says the current setup looks like a “mirror image,” with Bitcoin again testing the bear flag area and the 200-day moving average before sliding back into the range.
Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell Pressure Rising? Binance Inflows Hit 10-Day Streak
But the sharper part of Neuner’s argument focuses on Strategy’s funding engine. He claims that Saylor’s recent Bitcoin purchases have relied heavily on STRC trading back toward $100 before its ex-dividend date, allowing Strategy to issue shares, raise cash, and use the money to buy Bitcoin. The problem, in Neuner’s view, is that the window for that trade has been shrinking. “Last month in May, it only hit $100 on the 11th of May, when the ex-dividend date was the 15th of May,” Neuner said. “In previous months, it hit $100 on the 25th of the previous month. So if it were to keep the trend, it should have hit on the 25th of April. It only hit on the 11th of May, which meant he only had four days to raise money.”
Neuner says this matters because Bitcoin’s recent rallies seemed to line up with periods when Strategy had more time to raise capital and buy. If STRC spends fewer days near $100, he argues, the market might start to ignore the absence of its biggest recurring buyer. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces Fresh Test As Demand Metric Hits 2026 Low
“If we keep going like last month and he can’t raise money again, eventually the market will start to discount the fact that Saylor isn’t in the market anymore through STRC,” Neuner said. “Your biggest buyer right now isn’t in the market anymore.”
Melker pushed back on the idea that STRC would collapse without a major credit event, noting that the product is tied to Strategy and indirectly backed by its Bitcoin holdings. Neuner didn’t call STRC a Ponzi scheme or suggest anything wrong. His concern was more practical: he said he doesn’t understand why the instrument has to trade at $100 when holders still get the dividend below that level.
The discussion also touched on broader macro risks. Neuner mentioned rising Treasury yields, stubborn inflation, oil prices, and the possibility that large IPOs from SpaceX and OpenAI could pull liquidity away from risk assets. He said Treasury yields and stocks can’t both keep rising forever, arguing that “one of them has to give.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $77,033. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on Ran Neuners warning about Bitcoin potentially dropping to 40000 if Michael Saylors buying slows down
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 Who is Ran Neuner and why should I care about his prediction
Ran Neuner is a wellknown crypto commentator and host of the Crypto Banter show People pay attention because he often discusses market trends and has a large following but like all predictions its just an opinionnot a guarantee
2 Who is Michael Saylor and why does his buying matter so much
Michael Saylor is the cofounder of MicroStrategy a company that has bought billions of dollars worth of Bitcoin Because MicroStrategy buys huge amounts regularly their purchases can push the price up If they stop the market might lose a big source of demand
3 If Saylor stops buying could Bitcoin really drop to 40000
Its possible but not certain Neuners warning is based on the idea that without MicroStrategys constant buying pressure Bitcoins price could fall back to levels seen before their big buying sprees 40000 is a psychological support level
4 Does this mean I should sell my Bitcoin right now
Not necessarily One persons opinion shouldnt drive your decision Consider your own risk tolerance and investment timeline Many experts disagree with this bearish view Do your own research before making any moves
5 Is Bitcoin only valuable because of Michael Saylor
No Bitcoin has value because of its limited supply decentralized network and global adoption by investors companies and even countries Saylor is a major buyer but hes not the only reason for Bitcoins price
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 What is the Saylor effect on Bitcoins price action
It refers to the consistent upward pressure MicroStrategy creates by buying Bitcoin in large publicized tranches This reduces the available supply on exchanges and signals institutional confidence often triggering retail FOMO
7 How realistic is a drop to 40000 given current market conditions
It depends on broader factors like macroeconomic trends regulatory news and other institutional flows 40000 is a key support zone from 2021202