Bitcoin is approaching the end of 2025 in an unusual position. Even though it reached a new all-time high in October, the subsequent pullback has been significant enough to threaten a negative annual close. This situation raises questions about how to interpret the current cycle and what it means for Bitcoin’s future price.
According to one analyst, the reality may be less dramatic than it seems, and Bitcoin could be on the verge of entering a bear market.
### A Red Close Would Signal a Bear Market, Not a Broken Cycle
Historically, Bitcoin’s long-term price action has often followed a pattern: three consecutive green yearly candles are typically followed by a red one. This sequence has repeated multiple times since 2011, leading many traders to expect a similar outcome now.
However, the pattern has shifted this cycle. While 2023 and 2024 closed in the green, 2025 is currently on track to close negative, interrupting the usual progression.
Analyst CryptoBullet points out that a red close for Bitcoin in 2025 would simply confirm the cycle has moved into a bear phase, not that the fundamental four-year cycle is broken. He argues that the color of the yearly candle is often misinterpreted. The key factor is where Bitcoin forms its cycle highs and lows, not whether a specific post-halving year finishes positive or negative.
He explains that if 2025 closes in the red, the yearly candle will likely form a doji pattern. In technical analysis, doji candles indicate market indecision after a strong rally and often precede a trend reversal. In this context, such a close would align with Bitcoin having already put in its cycle top in October when it peaked at $126,080.
In past cycles, once a new high is established in the post-halving year, Bitcoin’s price action typically shifts into a prolonged corrective phase, regardless of how that year ultimately closes.
### What to Expect for Bitcoin in 2026
In follow-up comments on X, CryptoBullet reiterated an analysis he first shared on December 2, which maintains that Bitcoin’s cycle top is already in. Bitcoin opened 2025 around $93,396 and has since fallen well below its October peak—a structure he says closely resembles the consolidation seen after the top in 2019.
In that previous cycle, Bitcoin traded roughly 30% below its high for months while altcoins, as measured by the OTHERS/BTC chart, formed a cycle bottom and began to recover. CryptoBullet believes a similar dynamic is unfolding now, but on a larger scale, given that altcoins have underperformed Bitcoin for nearly four years.
Based on this setup, he anticipates a “dead cat bounce” in early 2026, accompanied by a brief rotation into altcoins, before a much deeper correction takes hold across Bitcoin as the bear market progresses.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs What if Bitcoin Ends 2025 Lower Than It Started
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q What does it mean for Bitcoin to end 2025 lower than it started
A It means that on December 31 2025 the price of one Bitcoin is lower than its price on January 1 2025 For example if Bitcoin starts the year at 80000 and finishes at 70000 it ended the year lower
Q Is it normal for Bitcoins price to go down over a year
A Yes its normal Bitcoin is known for its high volatility While it has seen massive longterm growth it has also experienced significant yearly declines in the past Price corrections are a common part of its market cycle
Q What are some simple reasons an analyst might give for a potential down year
A An analyst might point to reasons like stricter government regulations a major economic recession reducing investment a technological flaw or security breach being discovered or a prolonged loss of investor confidence
Q If the price goes down does that mean Bitcoin failed
A Not necessarily A single down year doesnt define its longterm viability Analysts look at trends over many years Price is just one metric adoption network security and technological development also matter
Q As a beginner what should I do if Im worried about a down year
A Focus on education and risk management Never invest more than you can afford to lose Consider a longterm perspective rather than focusing on a single year and avoid making panicdriven decisions
Intermediate Advanced Questions
Q What historical precedent is there for Bitcoin having a negative year
A Bitcoin has had several negative years A key example is 2018 when it fell from around 13800 to 3700a drop of over 70 2022 also saw a decline of about 65 These were often followed by periods of recovery and new highs
Q How might macroeconomic factors specifically cause a down year in 2025
A If central banks maintain highinterest rates to fight inflation it makes safer assets more attractive pulling money away from risky assets like Bitcoin A deep global recession