A countertrend rally that pushed Bitcoin to $82,800 hasn’t changed one analyst’s bearish outlook — in fact, he says the bounce itself shows the pattern is repeating.
Related Reading: When Bitcoin Gets Ignored, It Tends To Rally The Hardest, Analyst Says
What The Charts Are Showing
Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, points to a repeated rejection at the 200-day simple moving average as a key signal. The same thing happened in 2018 and 2022, and both times it came just before the final drop. Cowen also noted that some countertrend rallies in past cycles lasted more than 20 weeks. The current one lasted 16 weeks, which he says weakens the argument that Bitcoin has already hit its bottom.
The four-year cycle for Bitcoin is not dead. Bitcoin peaked when it always does (within one week when measured from low to high), so why can’t it bottom near the end of the midterm year, just as it usually has? (1/x) pic.twitter.com/Spoh4s6NRG — Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) May 25, 2026
Bitcoin Peaked On Schedule
According to Cowen, Bitcoin’s rise to $126,200 in October 2025 happened within the expected cycle window when measured from the previous low to the high. He argues that this timing at the top makes it harder to ignore the same framework when looking at where the bottom might be. Past cycles saw lows in the final months of the midterm year — specifically December 2018 and November 2022. Based on that pattern, Cowen believes the bottom is still ahead, likely near the end of 2026.
Two charts he shared support this view. One tracks the return on investment from the market cycle peak to the bear market low. The other tracks the multiplier from bear market lows to the next bull market peak. Both follow the shape of prior cycles, even if the raw numbers are smaller this time.
When The Drop Could Come
Cowen had previously flagged May and June as the window when the next major decline would start. He expects that move to take Bitcoin below the February 6 low of $60,000 — a level that many other analysts have called the cycle bottom.
Related Reading: Crypto Market Sees $1.46B Fund Exodus As Traders Turn Cautious
Not everyone expects another drop. Analyst Sykodelic has predicted Bitcoin will rise above $90,000 in June after retesting a key support level. The debate shows a broader split in how analysts are reading the market right now.
Cowen’s view is based on the idea that the four-year cycle, tied to Bitcoin’s halving schedule, continues to drive price behavior in a predictable way, despite the asset’s growth and changing market structure.
Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the Bitcoin fouryear cycle based on the idea that a crypto CEO believes it is still unfolding
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is the Bitcoin fouryear cycle
Its a pattern where Bitcoins price tends to go up peak drop sharply and then slowly recover over roughly four years This is closely tied to the halving event
2 What is the halving and why does it matter for the cycle
The halving is when the reward for mining new Bitcoin is cut in half It happens every four years Because fewer new Bitcoins are created the supply shrinks which historically has led to price increases over the following year
3 What does it mean when a crypto CEO says the cycle is still unfolding
It means they believe we are not at the end of the current cycle Specifically it suggests the peak bull market phase or the final price run hasnt happened yet and we are still in the middle of the expected upward trend
4 How does the cycle affect regular people who buy Bitcoin
If the cycle is still unfolding it can be a good time to hold or buy as history suggests prices may go higher before a major crash However it also means the risk of a big drop later is still very real
AdvancedLevel Questions
5 Are we in a supercycle that breaks the traditional fouryear pattern
A supercycle would mean the boombust pattern smooths out over time A CEO saying the cycle is still unfolding generally argues against a supercycle It implies the classic patterna strong bull run followed by a bear marketis still intact
6 What specific onchain or market indicators would confirm the cycle is still unfolding
Key indicators include a rising MVRV ZScore below historical peak levels increasing active addresses and a Puell Multiple that hasnt yet hit the extreme top zone If these are still climbing the cycle is likely midphase
7 How does the current cycle differ from the 2017 or 2013 cycles
The main difference is the presence of institutional investors This has added more liquidity and reduced some volatility but the CEOs claim is that