Bitcoin yana ciniki a mafi ƙarancin darajarsa cikin watanni, kuma wasu manazartan kasuwa suna gargadin cewa babbar cryptocurrency na iya fuskantar wani babban faɗuwa. A halin yanzu tana sake gwada wani matakin fasaha mai mahimmanci wanda a tarihi ya nuna manyan wuraren juyawa.
Bayan faɗuwar kashi 15 cikin 100 a cikin kwanaki huɗu da suka gabata, Bitcoin tana ƙoƙarin dawo da alamar $64,000 a matsayin tallafi. Tun daga faɗuwar farkon Fabrairu, babbar cryptocurrency tana tafiya tsakanin $64,000 da $82,000, tana zama a saman rabin wannan kewayon kusan watanni biyu. Amma sauyin kasuwa mai faɗi na wannan makon ya tura BTC zuwa ƙarshen wannan kewayon a karon farko cikin watanni, inda ta kai mafi ƙarancin watanni huɗu na $61,383 a daren Laraba.
Dangane da haka, mai lura da kasuwa Rekt Capital ya nuna cewa Bitcoin ta taɓa Matsakaicin Matsakaicin Motsi na mako 200 (SMA) a karon farko a cikin wannan zagayowar bear, wanda zai iya nufin wani gyara yana kan hanya. Ya bayyana cewa faɗuwa ƙasa da wannan SMA "a tarihi ya kasance mabuɗin don gina ƙasan ƙarshen Kasuwar Bear." A baya a watan Yuni 2022, Bitcoin ta kai wannan matakin yayin gyaran kasuwarta ta bear kuma da sauri ta rasa shi a matsayin tallafi akan ginshiƙi na mako-mako. Bayan wannan faɗuwar farko ƙasa da SMA na mako 200, cryptocurrency ta yi ciniki a gefe, ta sake gwada matakin a takaice, sannan ta ci gaba da faɗuwa zuwa ƙasan kasuwarta ta bear a ƙarshen 2022.
Yanzu, kusan shekaru huɗu bayan haka, BTC ta sake kai wannan SMA mai mahimmanci. Idan tarihi ya maimaita kansa, zai iya nufin faɗuwa zuwa sabbin ƙananan matakai. Manazartan ya lura cewa an ƙi Bitcoin daga wani yanki mai mahimmanci kuma ta karya wani matakin mahimmanci—wani kamanceceniya da gyare-gyaren kasuwar bear na baya. Bisa ga rubutunsa, an ƙi BTC daga gindin Macro Triangle bayan ta kasa wuce yankin $82,500, ta sake ziyartar 50-Month EMA yayin faɗuwar kwanan nan, kuma yanzu tana rushewa daga wannan EMA. Wannan tsari ya maimaita a kowane zagayowar kafin ƙasan kasuwa.
Shin Tallafin $60,000 na Bitcoin Zai Rushe?
Rekt Capital ya kuma nuna cewa haɓakar Bitcoin daga matakin $60,000 yana raunana tun daga 2024, wanda ke nuna cewa tallafi yana lalacewa. Yayin da farashin ya tashi da kashi 113 cikin 100 daga wannan yanki yayin haɓakar tsakiyar 2024, sake gwadawa na Fabrairu 2026 ya samar da motsi na kashi 38 cikin 100 kawai. Ya zuwa yanzu, cryptocurrency ta yi tsalle da kashi 4 cikin 100, amma manazartan ya ce "yana da yuwuwa sosai cewa sake dawowa daga nan zai zama mafi rauni," yana ƙara da cewa "yankin $60,000 zai zama gaba ɗaya a rasa a matsayin tallafi a kan lokaci."
Ya kuma lura cewa yayin kasuwannin bear, Bitcoin tana son samar da gungu na farashi na watanni da yawa, sai kuma sabbin Ƙananan Maɗaukaki na Macro, kafin ta rarraba daga waɗannan gungu don kaiwa ga sabbin ƙananan matakai. "Labari mai kyau shine akwai gungu 1-2 da suka rage a cikin wannan Kasuwar Bear ta Bitcoin, tare da Ƙasan Kasuwar Bear shine gungu na ƙarshe," in ji shi.
A halin da ake ciki, Ali Martinez ya tabbatar da cewa rushewar kwanan nan daga tallafin $72,000 ya bar Bitcoin "a cikin wani matsayi mai rauni," yana buɗe ƙofa don gyara na kashi 25-30 cikin 100 bisa ga MVRV Pricing Bands. A baya ya lura cewa Bitcoin ta ci gaba da ƙasa tsakanin MVRV Pricing Bands na 1.0 da 0.8 a cikin shekaru goma da suka gabata. Yanzu, babban yankin tallafi na gaba yana tsakanin $54,000 da $50,000, inda pricing band na 1.0 yake.
Hotuna daga Unsplash.com, Chart daga TradingView.com
**Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa**
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa bisa ga yanayin da kuka bayyana, wanda ya rufe matakan farko zuwa na gaba.
**Tambayoyin Matakin Farko**
1. **Menene ma'anar cewa Bitcoin yana cikin matsayi mai rauni?**
Yana nufin cewa motsin farashi na yanzu da yanayin kasuwa suna da rauni, kama da wani lokaci a 2022 kafin babban faɗuwar farashi. Yana nuna cewa akwai babban haɗarin faɗuwar farashi.
2. **Me yasa kowa ke kwatanta wannan da 2022?**
A 2022, Bitcoin ta samar da wani tsari na musamman akan ginshiƙin farashi kafin ta faɗi. Manazarta da yawa suna ganin wannan tsari yana faruwa a yanzu, shi ya sa suke gargadi game da maimaitawa.
3. **Menene $54,000? Shin wannan farashin Bitcoin ne a yanzu?**
A'a, $54,000 wani makasudin farashi ne wanda wasu manazarta suka yi imanin Bitcoin za ta iya faɗuwa zuwa gaba. Ya fi ƙasa da farashin yanzu. Hasashen ƙasan gaba ne.
4. **Ya kamata in sayar da Bitcoin dina yanzu idan na ga wannan labari?**
Wannan shawara ce ta sirri, ba shawara ta kuɗi ba. Duk da haka, labarin gargadi ne, ba garanti ba. Yawancin masu zuba jari suna amfani da waɗannan alamun don saita umarnin dakatar da asara don kare kuɗinsu, amma ba sa sayarwa cikin firgici bisa hasashe ɗaya.
5. **Shin Bitcoin za ta tafi sifili?**
A'a, matsayi mai rauni yana game da faɗuwar farashi na ɗan gajeren lokaci, ba rugujewar Bitcoin gaba ɗaya ba. Makasudin $54,000 har yanzu farashi ne mai girma idan aka kwatanta da tarihin Bitcoin. Faɗuwa zuwa $54,000 zai zama gyara, ba ƙarshe ba.
**Tambayoyin Matakin Tsaka-tsaki**
6. **Wane tsari na musamman daga 2022 yake maimaitawa?**
Manazarta suna nuna tsarin kai da kafadu na sama ko rushewa ƙasa da matsakaicin motsi mai mahimmanci. A 2022, Bitcoin ta rushe ƙasa da waɗannan matakan sannan ta faɗi sosai. Ana lura da wannan raunin tsari a yanzu.
7. **Yaya yuwuwar cewa Bitcoin ta kai $54,000?**
Hasashe ne na fasaha, ba tabbaci ba. Yana dogara ne akan yanayin kasuwa da kuma ko tarihi zai maimaita kansa. Yana da yuwuwa, amma ba a tabbatar ba.