Masanin nazarin crypto, Bob Loukas, ya ce Bitcoin ya shiga mataki na ƙarshe na zagayowar sa na shekaru huɗu na yanzu, amma ya yi gargadin cewa kasuwa na iya buƙatar ƙara faɗuwa kafin a sami ƙarshen zagayowar da zai daɗe. A cikin sabon "Tafiyar Shekaru Huɗu" nasa, wanda aka buga ranar 4 ga Yuni, Loukas ya bayyana gwajin da Bitcoin ya yi na ƙarshen Fabrairu a matsayin abin da ake tsammani, ba wai sabon abu ba daga tsarin zagayowar tarihi. Ya yi jayayya cewa komawar Bitcoin zuwa Mayu—lokacin da farashin ya kusa $80,000 bayan ya faɗi zuwa $60,000 a Fabrairu—ya yi kama da motsi na gaba da yanayi a cikin babbar kasuwa mai raguwa. "Zagayowar ba safai take ƙarewa da wuri ba, kuma ina nufin ƙasa da 10%, watakila kusan 5%, tana ƙarewa da wuri a kan faɗuwa ta farko daga kololuwa," in ji Loukas. "Kullum ana samun sake gwadawa. Yawanci akwai aƙalla ƙasa ɗaya mafi ƙasƙanci, idan ba ta biyu ba."
Loukas ya lura cewa Bitcoin ya kai kololuwa a watan Oktoba kuma daga baya ya faɗi ƙasa da matsakaicin motsi na watanni 10, wanda yake gani a matsayin tabbatarwa cewa hawan zagayowar da ta gabata ya ƙare. Faɗuwar zuwa Fabrairu, in ji shi, ta biyo bayan tashin hankali na ɗan lokaci wanda ya jawo masu sa ran komawa cikin sauri zuwa kololuwar farko. Wannan tashin ya tsaya kusa da $83,000, kusa da yankin $85,000 da ya annabta, kafin Bitcoin ya juya ya faɗi kusan 25% zuwa ƙarshen Fabrairu.
Duk da cewa Loukas ya yi imanin cewa Bitcoin mai yiwuwa bai kai ƙarshen zagayowar sa ba tukuna, ya ce fayil ɗin samfurin sa ya yi siyayya ta farko cikin shekaru uku da rabi. Fayil ɗin ya sayi Bitcoin 10 a $65,000, wanda ya kawo rabon sa zuwa kusan 58% Bitcoin da 41% tsabar kuɗi. Ya jaddada cewa wannan ba kira ba ne cewa ƙarshen ya zo, amma ƙoƙari ne na fara siya a farashin da ya fi dacewa na dogon lokaci.
A cewar Loukas, matakin da ya kamata a kula da shi yanzu shine $53,000. Ya ce idan Bitcoin ya kai wannan yanki, fayil ɗin samfurin zai yi amfani da sauran tsabar kuɗin sa don komawa cikakken rabon Bitcoin. Wannan matakin yana da mahimmanci domin ya yi daidai da tsakiyar zagayowar shekaru huɗu. "A yanzu, abin da nake ganin shine mafi kyawun dabara—kuma wannan na iya canzawa koyaushe—shine cewa a $53,000, muna amfani da duk sauran tsabar kuɗi don siyan sauran Bitcoin kuma mu dawo da rabon 100%," in ji Loukas. "A $53,000, muna buga tsakiyar dukan zagayowar shekaru huɗu."
Ya yarda cewa $53,000 na iya zama mai tsanani, amma ya yi jayayya cewa ba wani abu mai wuya ba ne ga Bitcoin. Daga matakan yanzu, in ji shi, wannan zai zama ƙasa da kashi 15% kawai, yayin da Bitcoin ya riga ya faɗi kusan $20,000 a cikin makonni biyu zuwa uku da suka gabata. Ya kuma nuna cewa kasuwannin da suka gabata sun ga faɗuwa mafi girma, kamar faɗuwar kashi 77% daga kololuwa zuwa ƙasa a zagayowar 2021–2022, idan aka kwatanta da faɗuwar yanzu na kusan kashi 51% zuwa 52%. Loukas ya ce faɗuwar kashi 65% zuwa 70% ba za ta zama annabta ba, amma "bai kamata ta zama abin mamaki ba" idan aka yi la'akari da tarihin canjin Bitcoin. Motsi zuwa $53,000, a cewarsa, zai zama faɗuwa kusan kashi 57% daga kololuwar zagayowar.
Loukas kuma ya ba da damar yanayi mai kyau. Ya ce gwajin na yanzu yana haifar da dama ta farko na ƙarshen zagayowar shekaru huɗu mafi guntu, mai yiwuwa ya zama ƙasa biyu kafin ya gina tushe zuwa ƙarshen bazara kuma daga baya ya tashi sama da kololuwar Mayu. Ya ba wannan sakamakon ƙananan yuwuwar kusan kashi 25%. Babban tsammaninsa ya kasance cewa ƙarshen zagayowar Bitcoin zai kasance kusa da taga na yau da kullun a kusa da Oktoba ko Nuwamba, tare da yiwuwar Disamba. Loukas ya ce Bitcoin yanzu yana cikin wata na 43 na zagayowar, yana shiga yanki mai faɗi inda ƙarshen shekaru huɗu yakan bayyana a kusa da matsakaicin watanni 47 zuwa 48. "An buga taga," in ji Loukas. "Zagayowar shekaru huɗu yanzu tana kusa da wannan batu." A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, Loukas ya ce Bitcoin ya yi rahusa sosai don ya dawo, mai yiwuwa zuwa matsakaicin motsi na makonni 10 a kusa da $73,000, kafin ya ci gaba da faɗuwa. Ya kuma yi jayayya cewa Bitcoin bai kamata ya sake yin ciniki sama da kololuwar Mayu kusa da $83,000 zuwa $85,000 a cikin 'yan watanni masu zuwa ba sai dai idan sabon zagayowar ya riga ya fara. A lokacin rubutawa, BTC yana ciniki a $62,247. Hoton da aka yi da DALL.E, ginshiƙi daga TradingView.com.
**Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa**
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa dangane da hasashen cewa Bitcoin zai iya kaiwa 53000 yayin da mataki na ƙarshe na zagayowar ya fara.
**Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko**
1. Menene mataki na ƙarshe na zagayowar yake nufi ga Bitcoin?
Yana nufin babban tashin farashi na ƙarshe kafin kasuwa ta shiga cikin raguwa na dogon lokaci ko kasuwa mai raguwa. A tarihi, Bitcoin yana tafiya cikin zagayowar girma, kololuwa, sannan faɗuwa.
2. Shin an tabbatar da cewa Bitcoin zai kai 53000?
A'a. Wannan hasashe ne kawai na wani manazarci. Farashin cryptocurrency yana canzawa sosai kuma yana iya tashi ko faÉ—uwa da sauri.
3. Idan Bitcoin ya kai 53000, ya kamata in saya yanzu?
Ba lallai ba. Siyan bisa hasashe É—aya yana da haÉ—ari. Yana da kyau ku yi binciken ku kuma ku saka kuÉ—in da za ku iya rasa kawai.
4. Menene manazarci mai gogewa?
Shi ƙwararren mai gogewa ne wanda ya yi nazarin Bitcoin da kasuwar crypto na shekaru da yawa. Hasashensu ya dogara ne akan tsarin da bayanan da suka gabata, ba kawai hasashe ba.
5. Yaya 53000 ya bambanta da kololuwar Bitcoin?
Kololuwar Bitcoin ta kai kusan 69000 a 2021. Don haka 53000 ya yi ƙasa da wannan kololuwa. Manazarci yana hasashen tashin farashi mai ƙarfi, amma ba sabon rikodin ba.
**Tambayoyi na Matakin Ci Gaba**
6. Wadanne alamomi na musamman ke nuna cewa muna cikin mataki na ƙarshe na zagayowar?
Manazarta sukan kalli ma'aunin kan sarkar kamar MVRV Z-Score, Puell Multiple, da matsakaicin motsi na makonni 200. WaÉ—annan kayan aikin suna nuna alamar lokacin da zagayowar ke kusa da kololuwa.
7. Yaya rabin Bitcoin (halving) yake shafar wannan hasashen mataki na ƙarshe?
Rabin yana rage wadatar sabon Bitcoin. A tarihi, mafi girman tashin farashi yana faruwa watanni 6-18 bayan rabin. Wannan hasashe yana nuna cewa muna shiga lokacin tashin bayan rabin.
8. Shin abubuwan waje za su iya hana tashin zuwa 53000?
Ee. Babban matsin doka, koma bayan tattalin arziki na duniya, ko faÉ—uwar kasuwar hannayen jari na iya rushe zagayowar kuma hana farashin kaiwa wannan manufa.
9. Menene zai faru idan Bitcoin ya karya sama da 53000?
Idan ya karya wannan matakin tare da ciniki mai ƙarfi, zai iya nuna ci gaba da tashin farashi.