Historical data shows that Bitcoin has never had three consecutive months of positive performance during a bear-market year. This pattern looks set to continue in 2026, as May is likely to end in the red for BTC after strong performances in March and April, and early this month. Recent on-chain data suggests that short-term investors may be giving up amid Bitcoin’s disappointing price action over the past few weeks.
Are BTC’s Short-Term Investors Losing Confidence?
In a Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst RugaResearch noted that a specific group of Bitcoin investors moved a large amount of BTC in the past day. These are short-term holders, known for being the most reactive in the market. Specifically, RugaResearch reported that 107,760 BTC from the 1-month to 3-month Spent Output Age Band moved in a single day—the largest on-chain movement in this age band in over seven months.
For context, the Spent Output Age Bands is an on-chain indicator that groups spent transaction outputs by age, showing how much of the total coins moved and how long they had been inactive. The 1- to 3-month band tracks Bitcoin bought between late February and late April, from the start of BTC’s recovery to around $80,000 last month.
RugaResearch said that when this age band sees an aggressive move like this, it means the most recent investors are reacting rather than holding. The analyst highlighted that moving these 107,760 BTC while Bitcoin’s price is below $74,000 means a large part of this group is losing money—or at best, breaking even. While it’s unclear why this happened, this shake-up doesn’t show strong confidence among these reactive investors.
RugaResearch wrote: “Exchange inflows tell you if these coins are heading to sell. If they land on exchanges, this sell-off has momentum. If they’re moving to cold storage or OTC desks, it’s redistribution under pressure.” So, data from centralized exchanges is one key signal to watch in the coming days to understand the purpose of this move.
Bitcoin Price Momentum Stays Negative for Eight Days
At the same time, RugaResearch pointed out a worrying trend with the Bitcoin Price Momentum indicator, which has been negative since May 22nd. After rising to a nearly one-year high of +20.5% on May 5th, the on-chain metric dropped by 12.9 percentage points about ten days later. After turning negative a little over a week ago, the Bitcoin Price Momentum now sits at 4.07%. The analyst concluded: “When 1m-3m spent output spikes 6.7x overnight while momentum bleeds for 8 straight days, the positioning game shifts.”
As of now, Bitcoin’s price is around $73,410, down just 0.4% in the past 24 hours.
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about the Bitcoin shortterm holder movement of 107760 BTC in one day written in a natural conversational tone with clear and simple answers
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q What does it mean that shortterm holders moved 107760 BTC in one day
A It means that people who have owned Bitcoin for less than 155 days transferred a huge amount of Bitcoinover 107000 coinsbetween wallets in a single day This is a big number because it shows a lot of activity from this specific group
Q Is this movement the same as selling
A Not necessarily Movement just means the Bitcoin was transferred from one wallet to another It could be someone selling on an exchange but it could also be someone moving their coins to a different wallet for safety or preparing to use them for a trade or payment We dont know the exact reason for every transfer
Q Why should I care about what shortterm holders do
A Shortterm holders are often seen as weak handsthey are more likely to sell quickly when the price drops or gets volatile When they move a lot of Bitcoin it can signal that they are about to sell which might push the price down Its a clue about what might happen next in the market
Q Is 107760 BTC a lot of Bitcoin
A Yes its a massive amount At current prices thats worth over 64 billion Its one of the largest singleday movements of Bitcoin by shortterm holders in recent history
Q Does this mean the price of Bitcoin is going to crash
A Not automatically A large movement like this can cause shortterm price drops if people sell but it could also be for other reasons Its a warning sign not a guarantee The market also has longterm holders and other factors that balance things out
Intermediate Advanced Questions
Q How do analysts track shortterm holder movements like this