Ƙungiyar masu riƙon Bitcoin na dogon lokaci tana ci gaba da girma, amma wani ma'auni mai mahimmanci na ribarsu ya koma ƙasa da tsaka-tsaki. Wannan yana gabatar da wani abin taka tsantsan a tsarin kasuwa, ko da yake tsofaffin tsabar kuɗi na ci gaba da fitowa daga cikin yawan ciniki.
A cikin wani bayanin kasuwa a ranar 17 ga Afrilu, mai binciken kan layi Axel Adler Jr. ya ruwaito cewa, Abin da Masu Riƙon Bitcoin na Dogon Lokaci (LTH) suka Gane (Realized Supply) ya karu daga BTC miliyan 5.26 a watan Janairu zuwa BTC miliyan 8.32 har zuwa ranar 16 ga Afrilu - haɓakar BTC miliyan 3.06 cikin watanni uku kacal. Duk da haka, a lokaci guda, Ma'aunin Riba na Abin da Masu Riƙon Dogon Lokaci suka Kashe (LTH Spent Output Profit Ratio - SOPR), wanda aka auna akan matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki bakwai, ya faɗi zuwa 0.979 kuma ya tsaya ƙasa da 1.0 na kwanaki biyar a jere.
"Rukunin masu riƙe na dogon lokaci yana ci gaba da faɗaɗawa," in ji Adler. "Haɗin wannan yana da mahimmanci: yawan tsabar kuɗi a cikin rukunin LTH yana girma, amma wani ɓangare na tsofaffin tsabar kuɗin da aka kashe yana fita cikin asara." A cikin kalmomi masu sauƙi, ƙarin tsabar kuɗi suna tsufa zuwa matsayin dogon lokaci, amma lokacin da wasu daga cikin waɗannan masu riƙon dogon lokaci suka sayar, ba sa yin hakan don samun riba.
A gefen wadata, hoton har yanzu yana da kyau. Adler ya nuna cewa, ginshiƙin Abin da Masu Riƙon Dogon Lokaci suka Gane (LTH Realized Supply) yana nuna "haɓaka mai tsanani na yawan tsabar kuɗi a cikin rukunin LTH," yana tashi daga BTC miliyan 4.16 zuwa BTC miliyan 8.32 a cikin shekarar da ta gabata. Wannan yanayin yana nuna alamar "faɗaɗa riƙon dogon lokaci da matsi na wadataccen wadata," ko da yake wani ɓangare na haɓakar kawai yana nuna tsabar kuɗin da ke akwai sun wuce kwanaki 155 don zama "na dogon lokaci," ba kawai sabbin sayayya ba.
Haɓakar Abin da Masu Riƙon Dogon Lokaci suka Gane (LTH Realized Supply) ba yana nufin sabuwar buƙata ta shiga ba kai tsaye, amma yana nuna cewa ƙarin wadata yana zama mara aiki na tsawon lokaci. Adler ya bambanta halin da ake ciki da kasuwar bear na 2022, lokacin da Abin da Masu Riƙon Dogon Lokaci suka Gane (LTH Realized Supply) ya kai kololuwa a BTC miliyan 15.31 a watan Nuwamba kafin ya ragu yayin da ake sayar da tsofaffin tsabar kuɗi. A yanzu, ya ce tsarin na yanzu ya fi dacewa da lokacin haɗin kai kusa da $75,000 fiye da babban sayarwar kasuwa.
Abin taka tsantsan ya fito ne daga halayen masu riƙe lokacin da suka sayar. Adler ya lura da maimaita faɗuwar LTH SOPR ƙasa da 1.0 tun daga watan Fabrairu, yana nuna cewa masu riƙon dogon lokaci waɗanda ke sayarwa sun kasance suna yin hakan a wasu lokuta cikin asara. Sabon karatun 0.979 yana biye da zurfafan faɗuwa a ƙarshen Maris da farkon Afrilu, lokacin da ma'aunin ya faɗi zuwa 0.798 kuma ya tsaya ƙasa da 1.0 na kwanaki bakwai a jere kafin ya dawo da ɗan lokaci.
Adler ya yi taka-tsan-tsan kada a lakafta wannan a matsayin mika wuya. "Hoton na yanzu jerin faɗuwa ne masu zurfi da ke maimaitawa ƙasa da 1.0 tare da dawowa da sauri, ba tsawaita mika wuya ba," ya bayyana. "Babbar tambaya a yanzu ita ce ko jerin na yanzu zai tsaya sama da ƙananan Maris (0.798) ko kuma SOPR zai faɗi ƙasa da su. Motsi mai zurfi da aka maimaita, tare da jujjuyawar Abin da aka Gane (Realized Supply) a lokaci guda zuwa ƙasa, shine ainihin alamar canjin tsarin mulki."
Wannan bambance-bambancen yana da mahimmanci saboda yana tsara sharuɗɗan bayyane na lokacin da damuwa na yanzu zai zama matsala mai tsanani. Matuƙar SOPR ya kasance a cikin abin da Adler ya kira "yankin asara mara zurfi" kuma ya dawo da sauri, yana nuna matsin lamba na ɗan gajeren lokaci maimakon cikakkiyar juyawa zuwa bear. A tarihi, irin waɗannan ɓangarorin gajerun lokaci sun kasance damammaki na siye maimakon tabbatar da babban koma baya.
Don ainihin siginar bear, Adler ya yi iƙirarin cewa abubuwa biyu suna buƙatar faruwa tare: LTH SOPR dole ne ya faɗi sosai kuma ya tsaya ƙasa da 1.0, yayin da Abin da Masu Riƙon Dogon Lokaci suka Gane (LTH Realized Supply) dole ne ya fara raguwa. Wannan zai nuna ba kawai masu riƙon dogon lokaci suna sayarwa cikin asara ba, amma faɗaɗa canji daga tarawa zuwa rarrabawa mai aiki.
A yanzu, ƙarshen Adler yana da daidaito. Gabaɗayan tsarin yana ci gaba da kasancewa mai kyau saboda wadataccen mai riƙon dogon lokaci har yanzu yana haɓaka, amma sayar da asara na baya-bayan nan yana nufin hangen kasuwa ba ya zama mai tsananin haɓaka kawai. Motsi na gaba a cikin SOPR, musamman dangane da ƙananan Maris, zai zama mahimmanci wajen tantance mataki na gaba. Ƙananan Maris na iya nuna ko wannan lokacin damuwa ne na ɗan lokaci ko farkon wani muhimmin canji a cikin mallakar Bitcoin. A halin yanzu, BTC yana cinikin $77,880.
**Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi (FAQs)**
Tambayoyin da ake yawan yi game da Taka-tsan-tsan na Masu Riƙon Dogon Lokaci na Bitcoin da SOPR ƙasa da 1.0
**Tambayoyin Masu Fara**
**Mene ne ma'anar mai riƙe na dogon lokaci a Bitcoin?**
Mai riƙe na dogon lokaci yawanci ana bayyana shi a matsayin mai saka hannun jari na Bitcoin wanda ya riƙe tsabar kuɗinsa ba tare da motsa su ba aƙalla kwanaki 155. Yawancin lokaci ana ganin su masu jajircewa, ƙasa da amsa ga sauye-sauyen farashin ɗan gajeren lokaci.
**Mene ne ma'anar haɓakar wadata ga masu riƙe na dogon lokaci?**
Yana nufin jimlar adadin Bitcoin da ake riƙe a cikin walat ɗin da aka gano na na masu riƙe na dogon lokaci yana girma. Ana ƙara ƙara ƙarin tsabar kuɗi zuwa ma'ajiyar sanyi ko kuma kawai ba a sayar da su, yana nuna tarawa.
**Mene ne Ma'aunin Riba na Abin da aka Kashe (SOPR)?**
SOPR ma'auni ne wanda ke nuna ko Bitcoin da ake sayarwa a wata rana ana sayar da shi a matsakaita don samun riba ko asara. SOPR sama da 1.0 yana nufin masu sayarwa suna fahimtar riba. Ƙasa da 1.0 yana nufin suna fahimtar asara.
**Me yasa SOPR ƙasa da 1.0 ke da mahimmanci?**
Lokacin da SOPR ya kasance ƙasa da 1.0 akai-akai, yana nuna cewa matsakaicin mai siyarwa yana mika wuya - sayar da Bitcoin ɗinsa cikin asara. Wannan yawanci ana haɗa shi da tsoro, firgita, ko ƙasan kasuwar bear, amma kuma yana iya nuna ci gaba da matsin lamba na sayarwa.
**Idan masu riƙe na dogon lokaci suna taka-tsan-tsan, me yasa suke riƙe da ƙarin Bitcoin?**
Wannan yana da kama da sabani, amma yana da mahimmanci. Taka-tsan-tsan su yana nufin suna zaɓar kada su sayar ko da a cikin asara. Suna tarawa ko riƙe ta hanyar koma baya, suna imani da ƙimar dogon lokaci, wanda ke ƙara jimlar wadatar da suke riƙe.
**Tambayoyin Matsakaici da Na Ci gaba**
**Ta yaya wadataccen mai riƙe na dogon lokaci zai iya ƙaruwa yayin da SOPR ke ƙasa da 1.0? Ashe ba sa sayarwa?**
Wannan shine ainihin yanayin. Haɓakar wadataccen LTH yana nuna tarawar yanayi. SOPR ƙasa da 1.0 yana faruwa ne ta wasu mahalarta kasuwa - mai yiwuwa masu riƙe na ɗan gajeren lokaci, 'yan kasuwa, ko masu sayarwa tilas - suna fahimtar asara. LTHs suna tsayawa tsayin daka a cikin wannan damuwa na sayarwa.
**Shin wannan haɗin yana da haɓaka ko bearish ga farashi?**
A tarihi, ya kasance alamar...