Concerns about quantum computing are affecting Bitcoin’s price and slowing some investment, highlighting a sharp divide between developers and many investors.
Developers See the Threat as Distant
Bitcoin developer Adam Back of Blockstream says quantum computers are still far from being able to breach Bitcoin’s security. He describes the technology as “ridiculously early” and points to ongoing research challenges. Back believes there is no real threat for at least the next decade and argues that even if parts of Bitcoin’s cryptography were compromised, it wouldn’t lead to the network being drained. He notes that security doesn’t rely solely on encryption in a way that would enable mass theft on the blockchain.
The Risk That Worries Others
Others in the community disagree. Well-known Bitcoin engineer Jameson Lopp has warned about the worst-case scenario if quantum advances allow attackers to break the ECDSA signature scheme that secures many wallets. In that situation, forged signatures could be used to move funds, potentially eroding user confidence quickly. This is presented as a technical possibility, not an imminent threat.
Investor Concerns and Shifting Capital
Nic Carter, a partner at Castle Island Ventures, has said it is “extremely bearish” when influential developers appear to dismiss quantum risk outright, noting a large gap between investor concern and developer assessment. Reports indicate that some investment is being held back as large holders consider diversifying into other assets. Craig Warmke of the Bitcoin Policy Institute added that perceived quantum risk has already led some holders to reduce their Bitcoin positions.
Current Technology Remains Limited
Most cryptographers agree that today’s quantum computers are not powerful enough to crack Bitcoin’s cryptography, an assessment widely reported by analysts. However, the timeline for advancement is debated. Based on research and comments from figures like Vitalik Buterin, there is an estimated 20% chance that a machine capable of breaking today’s cryptography could exist by 2030.
Calls for Preparedness Increase
Financial institutions and national programs are investing heavily in quantum research, with tools like AI accelerating progress. As a result, many in the crypto community argue that contingency plans should be prepared well before any practical threat emerges. Suggestions include transitioning to quantum-resistant signature schemes and improving wallet practices to protect funds during potential upgrades. Some experts note that banks and other traditional institutions are also actively preparing for this future.Earlier targets may face attacks, giving the crypto sector more time to respond. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Quantum Computing Threats
Beginner Questions
What is quantum computing and why is it a threat to Bitcoin
Quantum computing is a new type of computing that uses quantum mechanics It could potentially solve certain math problems much faster than todays best supercomputers The threat to Bitcoin is that these powerful computers might one day break the cryptographic codes that secure Bitcoin wallets and transactions
Is my Bitcoin safe right now from quantum computers
Yes for the foreseeable future The most powerful quantum computers today are not advanced enough to break Bitcoins cryptography Experts believe we have years possibly a decade or more before this becomes a practical threat
What exactly would a quantum computer attack on Bitcoin look like
The main danger is a twopart attack
1 Stealing Funds A quantum computer could potentially derive someones private key from their public address allowing theft of funds from that address
2 Disrupting Transactions In a more complex attack it could alter transactions being broadcast to the network before they are confirmed
Hasnt Bitcoin survived other threats before Why is this different
Yes Bitcoin has overcome many challenges This is different because its a fundamental mathematical threat to its core security layer not a market regulatory or software bug issue It requires a proactive upgrade to the systems protocol
Intermediate Technical Questions
What part of Bitcoins technology is specifically vulnerable
The primary vulnerability is in the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm which is used to create your private and public keys A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could use Shors Algorithm to reverseengineer the private key from the public key
Is the Bitcoin blockchain itself at risk of being deleted or altered
No The historical blockchainthe record of all past transactionsis secured by a different cryptographic function that is much more resistant to quantum attacks The threat is primarily forwardlooking to new transactions and to coins sitting in vulnerable addresses
Which Bitcoin wallets are more at risk
Wallets that have