Bitcoin is trading at its lowest point in months, and some market analysts are warning that the leading cryptocurrency could be headed for another big drop. It’s currently retesting a key technical level that has historically signaled major turning points.
After falling 15% over the past four days, Bitcoin is trying to reclaim the $64,000 mark as support. Since the early February crash, the flagship crypto had been moving between $64,000 and $82,000, staying in the upper half of that range for nearly two months. But this week’s broader market volatility pushed BTC toward the lower end of that range for the first time in months, hitting a four-month low of $61,383 on Wednesday night.
In light of this, market observer Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin has touched its 200-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time in this bear cycle, which could mean another correction is on the way. He explained that falling below this SMA has “historically been the key to building out a Bear Market bottom formation.” Back in June 2022, Bitcoin hit this level during its bear market correction and quickly lost it as support on the weekly chart. After that initial drop below the 200-week SMA, the crypto traded sideways, briefly retested the level, and then continued falling to its late 2022 bear market bottom.
Now, nearly four years later, BTC has reached this key SMA again. If history repeats itself, it could mean a drop to new lows. The analyst noted that Bitcoin has been rejected from a critical area and has broken a key level—another similarity to past bear market corrections. According to his post, BTC was rejected from the base of the Macro Triangle after failing to break past the $82,500 area, revisited the 50-Month EMA during the recent drop, and is now breaking down from that EMA. This pattern has repeated in every cycle before the market bottom.
Is Bitcoin’s $60,000 Support About to Break?
Rekt Capital also pointed out that Bitcoin’s rallies from the $60,000 level have been getting weaker since 2024, which suggests that support is deteriorating. While the price surged 113% from this area during the mid-2024 rally, the February 2026 retest only produced a 38% move. So far, the cryptocurrency has bounced 4%, but the analyst said “it’s very likely that the rebound from here will be even weaker,” adding that “the $60,000 area will be completely lost as support over time.”
He also noted that during bear markets, Bitcoin tends to form multi-month price clusters, followed by new Macro Lower Highs, before distributing from those clusters to reach new lows. “The good news is there are 1-2 such clusters left in this Bitcoin Bear Market, with the Bear Market Bottom being the final cluster,” he concluded.
Meanwhile, Ali Martinez confirmed that the recent breakdown from the $72,000 support has left Bitcoin “in a vulnerable position,” opening the door for a 25%-30% correction based on the MVRV Pricing Bands. He previously noted that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade. Now, the next major support area is between $54,000 and $50,000, where the 1.0 pricing band is located.
Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs based on the scenario you described covering beginner to advanced levels
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean that Bitcoin is in a vulnerable position
It means the current price action and market conditions look weak similar to a period in 2022 before a big price drop It suggests there is a high risk of the price falling further
2 Why is everyone comparing this to 2022
In 2022 Bitcoin formed a specific pattern on the price chart before crashing Many analysts see the same pattern forming right now which is why they are warning about a repeat
3 What is 54000 Is that the price of Bitcoin now
No 54000 is a price target that some analysts believe Bitcoin could fall to next Its much lower than the current price Its a prediction of a future bottom
4 Should I sell my Bitcoin right now if I see this news
Thats a personal decision not financial advice However the news is a warning not a guarantee Many investors use these signals to set stoploss orders to protect their money but they dont panic sell based on one prediction
5 Is Bitcoin going to zero
No the vulnerable position is about a shortterm price drop not the total collapse of Bitcoin The 54000 target is still a very high price compared to Bitcoins history A drop to 54000 would be a correction not an end
IntermediateLevel Questions
6 What specific pattern from 2022 is repeating
Analysts are pointing to a head and shoulders top pattern or a breakdown below a key moving average In 2022 Bitcoin broke below these levels and then dropped sharply The same structural weakness is being observed now
7 How likely is it that Bitcoin actually hits 54000
Its a