Bitcoin is approaching a level on the MVRV ratio that has historically signaled the market is “undervalued,” according to CryptoQuant contributor Crypto Dan. This comes as traders watch for signs that a four-month decline from October 2025’s all-time high may be shifting from a distribution phase to accumulation.
In a post on X, Crypto Dan stated that Bitcoin is “approaching the undervalued zone,” suggesting the market is nearing a threshold that has often presented a compelling risk-reward opportunity for long-term buyers.
“After reaching its all-time high in October 2025, Bitcoin has been declining for approximately 4 months and is now approaching the undervalued zone,” he wrote. “Generally speaking, when the MVRV ratio falls below 1, Bitcoin is considered undervalued. The current value is around 1.1, which can be seen as being close to that zone.”
The MVRV ratio is significant because it has typically moved toward 1 around previous cycle lows. A chart accompanying the post shows the ratio at roughly 1.10, with past dips below 1.0 highlighted around historical market bottoms.
Crypto Dan cautioned that the current situation may not perfectly mirror past cycles, particularly because the preceding rally differed in terms of valuation. “However, unlike previous cycles, it is necessary to recognize that in this cycle, Bitcoin did not sharply rise all the way into the overvalued zone during the uptrend,” he noted. “Accordingly, the pattern of the decline may also appear different from previous bottom zones, so it seems prudent to prepare for that possibility.”
This point sparked discussion in the replies. One user, onlyus8x, suggested that if Bitcoin reached this cycle’s prior all-time high more than three times faster than before, the downturn might also resolve more quickly. Crypto Dan responded by emphasizing the unique aspects of this cycle, stating he is “personally set[ting] the criteria differently from past decline cycles by comprehensively judging these things as well.”
Separately, analyst Will Clemente highlighted two long-watched price-based indicators that are also entering historically supportive ranges. “Throughout Bitcoin’s lifespan we have seen two indicators continue to be the best global market bottom signals: The Mayer Multiple (distance from the 200-day moving average) and the 200-week moving average,” Clemente wrote. “Both of these are clearly in long-term accumulation territory.”
His charts show a Mayer Multiple around 0.60, a level flagged in prior instances as a potential bottom signal. The same image notes Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average is near $57,926, with the current price about 15% above it, having “not yet touched” that line in the current decline.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,277.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins MVRV Ratio Nearing 1
Beginner Questions
1 What does it mean that Bitcoin is nearing undervalued territory
It means that based on a specific metric the current market price of Bitcoin is getting close to its average historical cost basis This suggests it might be priced lower than its fair value relative to what most investors paid for it
2 What is the MVRV ratio
MVRV stands for Market Value to Realized Value Its a popular metric that compares Bitcoins total market capitalization to its realized capitalization A ratio of 1 means the market price equals the average price investors paid
3 Why is an MVRV ratio of 1 significant
Historically when the MVRV ratio falls to or below 1 it has often signaled a major market bottom or an undervalued period It indicates that on average the entire market is not in profit which can be a contrarian buying opportunity signal
4 Is Bitcoin definitely a buy if the MVRV hits 1
Not necessarily While its a strong historical indicator its not a guarantee It suggests increased potential for a price rebound but markets can remain undervalued or decline further due to external factors like regulations or macroeconomic conditions
5 How can I check the current MVRV ratio
You can find it on several cryptocurrency analytics websites like Glassnode CryptoQuant or LookIntoBitcoin They provide charts and current values of the MVRV ratio
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 What is Realized Cap and how is it calculated
Realized Cap is an alternative way to value the Bitcoin network Instead of valuing all coins at the latest price it values each coin at the price it last moved This sums up the economic value actually invested in Bitcoin over time
7 What are the typical zones for the MVRV ratio