Recent on-chain data indicates that the Bitcoin Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is showing early signs of a reversal, suggesting that tokens are beginning to move toward derivatives platforms.
While the IFP is turning around, it has not yet entered bull market territory. As noted by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the indicator appears to have recently bottomed out. The IFP tracks the flow of Bitcoin between spot and derivatives exchanges. A rising value signals increased transfers from spot to derivatives platforms, reflecting growing speculative interest in the market. Conversely, a decline suggests traders are reducing risk by sending fewer tokens to derivatives markets.
The chart below illustrates the trend in the Bitcoin IFP, along with its 90-day moving average (MA), over the past decade:
As shown, the IFP peaked in the first quarter of 2025 and then reversed, indicating a drop in speculative activity. Shortly after this downturn began, the metric fell below its 90-day MA. CryptoQuant views such a crossover as bearish, with periods below the 90-day MA typically corresponding to bear markets or corrections.
Interestingly, even though Bitcoin later regained bullish momentum and set a new all-time high in 2025, the IFP remained in a bearish stance, maintaining a steady downward trend. Recently, however, early signs of a shift have emerged as the IFP has started to turn upward. This increase in derivatives exchange flows coincides with a recovery in Bitcoin’s price.
For now, the indicator remains notably below its 90-day MA. Historically, a break above this line has often preceded bullish price action for Bitcoin, so a potential crossover could be a positive signal this time as well. Whether speculative activity around Bitcoin will rise enough to surpass this threshold remains to be seen.
In related speculation metrics, Bitcoin Open Interest—which measures the total open BTC positions on derivatives exchanges—has surged 3.2% amid Bitcoin’s pullback over the past day, as highlighted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post.
BTC Price
Bitcoin has experienced a decline over the past few days, dropping from $95,000 to $91,200.
Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins IFP Suggests a Possible Reversal
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What is the IFP in Bitcoin
IFP stands for Inactive Supply Percentage Its a metric that tracks the percentage of Bitcoin that hasnt moved from its wallet addresses for a long time A high IFP suggests many holders are choosing not to sell
2 What does a reversal mean in this context
A reversal refers to a potential change in the longterm trend of this inactive supply If the IFP starts to decrease it means a significant amount of previously dormant Bitcoin is being moved or sold which could signal a shift in holder behavior
3 Why should I care if old Bitcoin starts moving
It can be a market signal When longterm holders suddenly move coins it might indicate they believe the price is at a peak and want to take profits or theyre reacting to a major macroeconomic event This can increase selling pressure
4 Is this a guaranteed sign the price will drop
No its not a guarantee but a potential warning signal Market dynamics are complex Increased selling from longterm holders can contribute to a price drop but it could also just mean coins are being moved to more secure wallets or for institutional purposes
Intermediate Advanced Questions
5 How is the IFP calculated and where can I see it
Its calculated by analyzing the Bitcoin blockchain to see which coins havent been spent in a set timeframe Analytics firms and onchain data platforms like Glassnode CryptoQuant and Coin Metrics publish these metrics and charts
6 What could a reversal of the IFP signal beyond just selling
ProfitTaking The most common interpretation
Wallet Management Consolidation into new wallets or custody solutions
Institutional Activity Large entities rebalancing or deploying coins
Loss of Keys Actually less likely as movement implies active access
A Response to Macro Factors Such as inflation regulatory news or global crises
7 Has this happened before What was the outcome
Yes notable declines in the IFP have often preceded or coincided with major market tops For example significant movements of dormant coins were observed near the peaks