Bitcoin fell sharply over the weekend, dropping below $76,000 in light trading and briefly dipping past $75,000 as selling intensified late Saturday into Sunday. This decline pushed BTC into a key horizontal support zone, roughly between $73,700 and $76,500, identified by technician Aksel Kibar.
The move didn’t occur in isolation. Broader markets were already in a risk-off mode, with a sharp sell-off in precious metals fueling wider deleveraging. This is exactly the type of market action that can worsen weekend volatility when trading is thin and stop-loss levels are triggered.
Is the Bitcoin Bottom In?
Kibar, a Chartered Market Technician and founder of Tech Charts LLC, stated in a series of posts on X that he is closely watching the $73,700 to $76,500 zone but is not treating it as an automatic buy signal. His message to traders is that price reaching support is a location, not a signal—a crucial distinction when trying to avoid catching a falling knife.
In posts from January 30 and February 1, he explained that his process is based on classical chart patterns rather than guessing the low. “Reaching a support area is not in itself a classical chart pattern buy signal,” he wrote. “We need to see a bullish reversal chart pattern forming around support areas. But trading tactics differ. You might have a different way to take advantage of the recent price action.”
Kibar views the current range as a potential area for a bottom to form but stressed that his approach is to wait for a clear structure—specifically, a reversal pattern that shifts the odds. On January 30, he explained why he doesn’t simply chase a level because it’s on the chart: “I’m not interested to find the support because I’m not trying to catch the falling knife. I’m interested to find a bottom reversal pattern. A double bottom. A head-and-shoulders bottom. I will always miss the boat if it is a V reversal.”
He added that this trade-off is deliberate and part of knowing one’s own limits: “Important to know your strength and weaknesses.”
In a separate post, Kibar linked the idea of “base building” to a specific trigger: a breakout above $91,200, which he described as the completion point of a potential double-bottom pattern he had mentioned earlier. “When I say we need a base building, some sort of a classical chart pattern (preferably with horizontal boundaries), I’m referring to the breakout above 91.2K (completion of a double bottom),” he wrote. He added that confirmation is “even more crucial because we are below the long-term average” before he can “submit for a bullish interpretation.”
Kibar also addressed a common psychological trap in calling market bottoms: confusing caution with fear. Responding to an X user who suggested he sounded bullish but was reluctant to “make a call” to avoid being wrong, Kibar agreed with the setup but clarified his motive: “Everything correct. Except it’s not that I don’t want to be wrong, but to have higher conviction. We can’t act in markets with the fear of being wrong.”
This distinction is important because it explains why his framework requires visible evidence of buyers stepping in, rather than assuming a single price level will hold. When another user asked if Bitcoin could be forming the right shoulder of a potential head-and-shoulders bottom, Kibar dismissed the timing as premature: “Too early to start thinking about this.”
In his most recent update, Kibar described the kinds of market behaviors that can hint at demand emerging around a support level. Rather than a checklist, he framed them as “signs” that buyers are willing to defend the area: increased activity and volatility, candlesticks showing rejection (like doji patterns with long lower wicks), and short-term reversal structures such as double bottoms or head-and-shoulders patterns.Kibar also shared a market-structure insight from his time managing a large fund in the UAE: “If there are no sellers, there will be no buyers.” He explained that major buyers often require substantial supply to build a large position without pushing the price against themselves. In some cases, significant selling can actually create the conditions for such accumulation, depending on the sellers’ motives and market liquidity.
He briefly applied this thinking to MicroStrategy (formerly known as Strategy), noting he was uncertain whether the company “will be required (from an accounting perspective) to sell any assets.” However, he added that the market can be a “wild wild west,” where “some buyer out there might be after that chunk at a reasonable price.”
At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $76,713.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Is the Bitcoin Bottom In Technical Analysis Insights
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does finding the bottom mean in Bitcoin trading
It refers to identifying the lowest price point in a market downturn before the price begins a sustained upward trend Traders and investors try to spot this level to buy at the best possible value
2 What is technical analysis and how can it predict a Bitcoin bottom
Technical analysis is the study of past market data primarily price and volume to forecast future price movements It doesnt predict the bottom with certainty but identifies key levels and patterns where a reversal is more likely to occur
3 What are the most common technical indicators used to spot a potential bottom
Key indicators include
Support Levels Historical price points where buying interest has consistently emerged
Relative Strength Index Measures whether an asset is overbought or oversold An RSI below 30 can signal a potential bottom
Moving Averages When the price trades significantly below a longterm moving average it can indicate an oversold condition
Trading Volume A potential bottom may be confirmed by high buying volume as the price stabilizes or rises
4 If technical analysis suggests a bottom does that mean the price will only go up
No Technical analysis provides probabilities not guarantees A supposed bottom can be broken leading to further declines Its one tool among many including fundamental and onchain analysis
Advanced Strategic Questions
5 What is a Wyckoff Accumulation pattern and why is it important for bottoms
This is an advanced chart pattern that suggests smart money is quietly accumulating an asset at low prices before a major uptrend Identifying its phases can help confirm a bottoming process
6 How does onchain data complement technical analysis for bottom spotting
Onchain data looks at blockchain activity Metrics like MVRV Ratio exchange outflows and the behavior of longterm holders can provide fundamental confirmation that selling pressure is exhausting supporting TA signals