Bitcoin has fallen 36% from its recent high, and talk of a “bear market” is already spreading across crypto social media. However, in a thread on Sunday, trader Cristian Chifoi argued that labeling this a regime shift based solely on the price drop misses a more actionable signal. He believes the key lies in what happens after the first significant rebound and how the price behaves around specific “seasonality windows” based on timing.
Chifoi’s main point is that many analysts react with narratives only after volatility has already occurred. “The simplest way to determine if a Bitcoin bear market has started is not after we’ve had a 36% correction, as many online crypto analysts suggest,” he wrote, noting these were often the same analysts calling for a “supercycle” in late 2021 as prices soared. In his view, the bear market question isn’t primarily about the size of the drop, but about the character of the subsequent bounce. Is it a show of strength, or a structurally weak countertrend move that fades over time?
Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market?
Chifoi’s first analytical tool is a cross-check between Bitcoin and the dominance of the stablecoin USDT (USDT.D), which he describes as an “inverted BTC chart” used for confirmation. He places greater emphasis on timing as the primary indicator, arguing the current correction has already lasted a minimum duration he tracks across cycles.
“If you are a trader or not, I also suggest you use time as your first indicator, and price as the second,” he wrote. “We had a 77-day correction from top to bottom already. The price couldn’t get lower. That is the signal; the rest is noise.”
From there, his framework for confirming a bear market depends on how far Bitcoin can bounce and how long it can sustain that momentum. He outlines specific USDT.D targets—first around 5.5%, then lower levels like 4.7%—and maps them to potential Bitcoin price levels. He suggests that even a push “a little over $100k” could still be a “dead cat bounce” if it lasts for weeks without further gains. In that scenario, the bounce itself would be evidence of weakness, not a signal for a new uptrend.
His second potential scenario is more challenging for both perpetual bulls and early bear market callers: Bitcoin makes a higher high, potentially reaching $115,000–$120,000, but then stalls over several weeks. Even that, in Chifoi’s view, could signal a transition to a bear market if time passes and the price fails to “deliver more gains,” turning a breakout into a distribution-like top.
“It is the same game!” he added, arguing traders should watch for the same failure pattern at different price levels instead of fixating on a single number.
Chifoi’s second framework is seasonality, centered on a window around January 20 (give or take a few days) extending into late March or early April. He says he has tracked this as a key decision point since the start of 2026 and sees it as a fork between two paths: either Bitcoin rallies into that date to set a pivot high and then declines, or it forms a pivot low around that date and rallies into the next time-based pivot.
“A pump into January 20, over $100-$110k, would mean a pivot high and a continuation down into the next time pivot,” he wrote. The alternative, he said, is a “January 20 pivot low, and then a continuation up to the next time pivot,” adding he is watching this week’s price action “until Friday” for confirmation.
At the time of writing, Chifoi leans toward the latter interpretation. “For now, it seems pretty clear that we are developing a pivot low, and the next move is the opposite of what we had from October 6th until now,” he said.
Chifoi groups most market participants into two “camps”: those calling for a supercycle or declaring the cycle framework broken, and those asserting a bear market began in October and will end in October 2026, “just like 2022.” He argues both could be forced into poor…If Bitcoin reaches a new high in the coming weeks before declining after April, his personal risk assessment is broader and more focused on timing: a new peak followed by a prolonged downturn into late 2026 or early 2027, which he refers to as his “next important time pivot.” In that light, the practical takeaway isn’t about calling a bear market now, but rather letting the next rebound and the period from January through spring clarify whether this is a reset within a larger uptrend or the beginning of a longer shift from distribution to downtrend.
“Pay attention over the next few weeks,” Chifoi wrote. “I don’t know what will happen, but the plan is already in place. I will adjust my positioning based on whichever scenario unfolds, because I already know what to do in either case.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $92,836.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Market Cycle The Significance of January 20th
BeginnerLevel Questions
Q1 What is a bear market
A A bear market is a prolonged period of declining prices typically defined as a drop of 20 or more from recent highs Its often accompanied by widespread pessimism
Q2 Is Bitcoin currently in a bear market
A As of my last update Bitcoins market condition can change rapidly You should check a reliable financial website or app for the current price and its change from the last major high It can be in a bear market relative to one peak but not another
Q3 Why does everyone talk about January 20th for Bitcoin
A January 20th is not a universally significant date for Bitcoins technology However it can be significant in specific years due to external events like the expiration of major options contracts or announcements from regulators
Q4 Should I sell my Bitcoin if were in a bear market
A Theres no onesizefitsall answer It depends on your investment strategy Some investors HODL through cycles while others may adjust their portfolio Never invest more than you can afford to lose
Q5 How long do Bitcoin bear markets usually last
A Historically Bitcoin bear markets have lasted anywhere from a few months to over a year The crypto market is volatile and past performance doesnt guarantee future results
Advanced Practical Questions
Q6 What are the key indicators that signal a Bitcoin bear market
A Common technical indicators include the price trading below its 200day moving average sustained low trading volume on rallies and negative momentum oscillators Onchain metrics like falling network activity and miner selling pressure also provide clues
Q7 What is Capitulation in a bear market
A Capitulation is a steep highvolume selloff where even longterm holders panic and sell often marking a potential bottom Its characterized by extreme fear and a sentiment of giving up
Q8 Did the January 20th 2024 options expiry have a major impact on price
A Large