Bitcoin may be heading for its worst week since November 2022 after dropping sharply on Friday to an eight-month low of $80,000. Analysts point to October 10 as the start of the downturn, when a massive liquidation wiped out nearly $21 billion in minutes, sparking flash crashes and ongoing market anxiety.
Crypto Banter founder Ran Neuner believes he knows why the market has struggled to recover. According to him, Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs), such as Strategy (MSTR), have been key buyers in this cycle. Their goal is to grow large enough to be included in major indices. Once included, passive index funds must buy their stocks, helping them expand further and enter even more indices—creating a self-reinforcing cycle.
However, on October 10, index provider MSCI raised a critical question: should companies that mainly hold crypto assets be classified as “companies” or “funds”? If deemed funds, they would no longer qualify for passive indices. This matters because funds operate in cycles—buying assets, growing, and qualifying for more indices. A decision is expected by January 15, 2026. If DATs are classified as funds, Neuner warns that firms like Strategy could be removed from indices, forcing pension funds and other passive investors to sell their shares.
Since DATs have driven much of the buying in this market cycle, investors quickly grasped the implications of MSCI’s announcement and adjusted their positions. October 10 now looks like a turning point, when the market recognized major risks to crypto and its structure.
Looking forward, Neuner expects the market to keep falling until December. If MSCI’s ruling goes against DATs, a significant sell-off could follow as investors brace for possible exclusion from indices. But if the decision is favorable, it could reignite a bull market for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Currently, Bitcoin has recovered slightly to $84,880, though it remains 32% below its early October all-time high of $126,000—just days before the crash began.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about the potential risks for the crypto market ahead of a major MSCI decision designed to be clear and helpful for all levels of understanding
General Beginner Questions
1 What is MSCI
MSCI is a company that creates stock market indexes like the MSCI World Index These indexes are used by big investment funds as a benchmark to guide where they put their money
2 How can a stock market decision affect Bitcoin
Large institutional investors often manage both stocks and crypto A major decision from MSCI can cause big moves in the stock market If investors get nervous and sell stocks they might also sell riskier assets like Bitcoin to cover losses or reduce risk
3 What does a selloff mean
A selloff is a period when a large number of people sell an asset at the same time causing its price to fall quickly
4 Why is Bitcoin considered a riskier asset
Compared to traditional assets like government bonds or bluechip stocks Bitcoins price is much more volatile In times of economic uncertainty investors often move their money to assets they perceive as safe
Advanced Market Impact Questions
5 What specific MSCI decisions could trigger a crypto selloff
Decisions that signal a shift in global economic sentiment are key This includes
Rerating a major countrys market
Changes in index composition that force large funds to buy or sell billions in stocks creating broader market volatility
Any decision that strengthens the US Dollar as a strong dollar often pressures risk assets like crypto
6 Could this decision directly cause a Bitcoin crash
Its unlikely to be the direct cause The more probable scenario is that an MSCI decision triggers volatility in traditional markets which then spills over into the crypto market as a secondary effect
7 What other factors could combine with an MSCI decision to worsen a selloff
A perfect storm could include
High inflation data or hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve
Geopolitical tensions causing marketwide fear
Liquidations in the crypto derivatives market amplifying the downward move