Standard Chartered has significantly scaled back its famously bullish outlook for Bitcoin, cutting its 2026 price target in half and admitting its earlier short-term forecasts were too aggressive. However, the bank maintains an extremely optimistic long-term view.
In a note shared by VanEck’s head of research, Matthew Sigel, Standard Chartered argues that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year halving cycle has been overshadowed by the influence of ETF-driven investment flows. The bank stated, “With the advent of ETF buying, we think the BTC halving cycle is no longer a relevant price driver. The logic from previous cycles—where prices would peak about 18 months after each halving and then decline—is no longer valid, in our view.”
The report adds that breaking the current all-time high of $126,000 (set on October 6, 2025) will be needed to confirm this new dynamic, which it expects to happen in the first half of 2026.
Alongside this changed perspective, the bank revised its multi-year Bitcoin price targets downward. According to the figures shared, Standard Chartered has lowered its forecast for 2025 from $200,000 to $100,000, its 2026 target from $300,000 to $150,000, and its 2027 projection from $400,000 to $225,000. Estimates for 2028 were reduced from $500,000 to $300,000, and for 2029 from $500,000 to $400,000, while the $500,000 target for 2030 remains unchanged.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, described the recent price decline as painful but not fundamental. He called the current phase “a cold breeze,” explicitly dismissing the idea of a new crypto winter and noting that the scale of the pullback is in line with corrections seen in previous bull markets. He also pointed out that lower valuations for publicly traded Bitcoin companies have limited their ability to be major buyers, leaving spot ETFs as the key driver for near-term price gains.
This downgrade comes amid a broader reassessment on Wall Street. Just a day earlier, on December 8, Sigel shared a separate note from the firm Bernstein, which reached a similar conclusion about Bitcoin’s market structure. Bernstein wrote that “the Bitcoin cycle has broken the 4-year pattern… and is now in an elongated bull-cycle with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling.” Despite a roughly 30% price correction, the firm noted that “we have seen less than 5% outflows via ETFs.”
Based on this, Bernstein has set a 2026 Bitcoin price target of $150,000, sees the cycle potentially peaking in 2027 at $200,000, and maintains its long-term target for 2033 at around $1,000,000 per Bitcoin.
Both Standard Chartered and Bernstein are conveying the same core message: the halving event alone no longer dictates Bitcoin’s path. ETF flows, institutional investment, and corporate balance-sheet strategies are now the central factors, even though the two firms’ specific price targets and timelines differ.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at $92,686.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about Standard Chartered lowering its Bitcoin price forecast designed to be clear and helpful for a range of readers
General Beginner Questions
1 What exactly did Standard Chartered say
Standard Chartered a major global bank revised its longterm price prediction for Bitcoin They now forecast Bitcoin could reach around 100000 by the end of 2024 but have halved their 2026 forecast to 150000
2 Why is a banks price forecast for Bitcoin a big deal
Because Standard Chartered is a large traditional financial institution When such banks publish crypto analysis it signals growing institutional interest and provides a benchmark that other investors and the market pay attention to even if they disagree
3 Does this mean Bitcoins price will definitely drop
No A price forecast is an educated guess not a certainty Its one banks opinion based on their analysis of market conditions regulations and adoption trends The actual price will be determined by global market forces
4 Should I sell my Bitcoin because of this report
Investment decisions should not be based on a single report Consider your own financial goals risk tolerance and research This forecast is a data point to be aware of not a direct instruction
Advanced Market Impact Questions
5 What were their main reasons for lowering the 2026 forecast
The bank cited two primary factors
Reduced Profit Margins for Miners They believe the profitability for Bitcoin miners will be lower than previously expected after the recent halving event
Lower Expected ETF Inflows They revised down their estimates for how much new money will flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States
6 How does miner profitability affect Bitcoins price longterm
The theory is that if mining is less profitable some miners may shut down operations This could reduce the networks overall security and selling pressure from miners needing to cover costs creating a complex balance that analysts debate will impact price
7 Are other banks and analysts changing their forecasts too
Analyst forecasts vary widely and change frequently Some remain extremely bullish while others are skeptical Standard Chartereds update is notable but represents just one view