Bitcoin is still struggling to break back above $70,000, as ongoing selling pressure keeps the market on the defensive. The price has repeatedly failed to gain lasting momentum above this key level, showing caution among both large and small investors. While volatility has eased from the sharper drops seen earlier, the overall market structure indicates it is still searching for direction rather than starting a clear recovery.
Recent on-chain data provides more insight by looking at whale activity. Wallets holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC controlled about 4.483 million BTC as of February 16, 2026. Within this group, long-term holder whales—those holding coins for over 155 days—dominate with roughly 3.196 million BTC, or about 71.3% of the total. Short-term whales, who hold for less than 155 days, account for around 1.287 million BTC, or 28.7%. Although newer whales have slightly increased their holdings in recent months, long-term holders still firmly control the market. This suggests that while newer capital is under pressure, more established investors continue to provide stability. Whether this leads to stabilization or more volatility remains to be seen.
The analyst points out that the most telling signal comes from comparing the average purchase price, or realized price, among different whale groups. Short-term holder whales have an average cost basis near $88,494, while long-term holder whales have a much lower one around $41,626. With Bitcoin trading near $68,795, the difference is stark. Newer whales are sitting on an unrealized loss of roughly 22%, while long-term whales still have an estimated 65% profit margin.
This imbalance highlights a common market pattern: recent investors are under pressure, while long-term holders remain in a strong position. When prices fall sharply, short-term whales tend to sell first, locking in losses. Data on recent realized profits shows this process has already intensified since Bitcoin’s all-time high in October, with deeper losses appearing as the correction continued.
Historically, similar setups in 2019 and 2022 led to redistribution phases rather than market collapse, as supply shifted from weaker to stronger hands. The key level to watch is the long-term holder realized price near $41,600. As long as Bitcoin stays above that, a major structural breakdown isn’t confirmed. Instead, the current phase seems to reflect a transfer of conviction rather than widespread market damage.
On the charts, Bitcoin’s price action continues to show weakness after its sharp rejection from the late-2025 highs near $125,000. Since then, it has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a clear downtrend. The recent drop to the $65,000–$70,000 zone highlights persistent selling pressure, especially after repeated failures to break above key moving averages.
Technically, the price is now trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, which are all starting to slope downward. This alignment usually signals bearish momentum and suggests any rallies will likely face resistance. The 200-period average, near the mid-$90,000s, now acts as a major barrier rather than a support level.Recent price movements reinforce this view. Selling pressure during recent declines has been more intense than buying activity during rebounds, suggesting short-term distribution rather than accumulation. However, the market appears to be stabilizing in the $65,000–$70,000 range, pointing to a potential consolidation phase rather than an immediate further drop.
Key support lies around the recent low near $60,000. A sustained break below that level could trigger another surge in volatility. Conversely, a recovery above $80,000 would be needed to neutralize the current bearish structure and shift sentiment toward stabilization.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin Supply Shift LongTerm Holder Whale Activity
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean that Bitcoin supply is shifting to longterm holders
It means that more Bitcoin is being bought and held in wallets without being sold or traded for longer periods This reduces the amount of Bitcoin readily available for sale on exchanges which can impact price and market stability
2 Who are whales in the Bitcoin market
Whales are individuals or entities that hold very large amounts of Bitcoinoften thousands of coins or more Their buying or selling activity can significantly influence the market due to the size of their transactions
3 Why is it significant if whales are holding for the long term
When whales hold longterm it signals strong conviction in Bitcoins future value It reduces selling pressure and can be seen as a sign of maturity suggesting they view Bitcoin more as a longterm store of value than a shortterm trading asset
4 What is a structural change in this context
A structural change refers to a fundamental shift in how the Bitcoin market operates In this case its the move from a market dominated by shortterm traders and speculators to one increasingly underpinned by investors who accumulate and hold for years changing the supply and demand dynamics
5 How do we know this shift is happening
Analysts use onchain datapublic information from the Bitcoin blockchainto track metrics like the age of coins being moved exchange balances and the growth in supply held by longterm holder addresses
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 What specific onchain metrics indicate this shift
Key metrics include
HODL Waves Charts showing the percentage of supply that hasnt moved in specific time frames
LongTerm Holder Supply The total amount of Bitcoin held in wallets that have been inactive for 155 days which has been trending upward
Exchange Net Flow A consistent negative flow suggests accumulation into custody