Fassarar rubutun daga Turanci zuwa Hausa:
Yanayin farashin Bitcoin a watan Yuni ya fara da wahala, inda farashin ya ragu da kashi 50% daga mafi girman darajar kasuwa. A cikin mako guda da ya gabata, babban cryptocurrency ya ragu da kashi 16%, wanda ya tura farashinsa zuwa kusan $60,000 a karon farko tun watan Fabrairu. Musamman, wannan babbar asarar kasuwa ta zo daidai da babban kamfanin Bitcoin treasury na Strategy da ya sayar da dala miliyan 2.5 na BTC don sarrafa ma'aunin kuɗinsa, duk da alkawuran da ya yi na "ba za mu taɓa sayarwa ba." A halin yanzu, Elon Musk's SpaceX yana jan hankalin mutane da yawa game da IPO ɗinsa mai zuwa, wanda ake ganin zama jari mai kyau a yanzu.
Ta amfani da bayanan on-chain masu dacewa, manazarcin kasuwa Rafael, wanda aka sani da n3ocortex a kan X, ya nuna yiwuwar ƙasan kasuwa a cikin wannan yanayin raguwa.
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Bayanan Tarihi Suna Nuna Yiwuwar Faduwa zuwa $35,000 Kafin Farfadowa
Bayan rashin nasarar ketare matakin juriya na $82,000 a farkon watan Mayu, Bitcoin ya sake shiga wani yanayi na gyara, wanda ya haifar da asarar kashi 24% na farashi har yanzu. Ta hanyar bincike mai zurfi na on-chain, Rafael ya nuna cewa raguwar kwanan nan ta tura farashin ƙasa da ma'aunin raba gajiyar mai riƙe da matsakaici a karon farko tun watan Mayu 2022. Bitcoin kuma ya faɗi ƙasa da matsakaicin motsi na mako 200, wanda ya fallasa shi ga wani mahimmin matakin farashi mai zurfi.
Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD), wanda a yanzu yake a $46,200, yana ɗaya daga cikin waɗannan matakan kuma ana amfani da shi sau da yawa don gano ƙasan kasuwa na dogon lokaci. A cewar Rafael, ƙasan kasuwa na baya sun kasance tsakanin 1.05x da 1.18x na CVDD. Dangane da wannan tsarin tarihi, yankin ƙasan kasuwa mai yiwuwa ga Bitcoin yana tsakanin $46,000 da $54,000. A gefe guda, yanayi mafi muni yana nuna ƙasa tsakanin $35,000 da $40,000. Don fahimta, Bitcoin ya shiga wannan yanki mai zurfi ne kawai a ƙasa da kashi 3% na kwanakin ciniki a wannan zagayen kasuwa.
Rafael ya kuma lura cewa raguwar zagayen Bitcoin sun zama ƙanana a hankali, suna raguwa daga kashi 85% a zagaye na farko zuwa kashi 77% a na baya, da kusan kashi 50% a zagaye na yanzu. Duk da cewa wannan yanayin balaga kasuwa bai hana yiwuwar Bitcoin komawa yanayin mika wuya ba, shaidun a yanzu suna goyon bayan yankin ƙasa mafi girma.
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Bayyani na Kasuwar Bitcoin
A lokacin rubuta wannan, Bitcoin yana ciniki a $60,537, ya ragu da kashi 4.7% a cikin sa'o'i 24 da suka gabata. Girman ciniki na yau da kullun kuma ya ragu da kashi 4.69% zuwa dala tiriliyan 1.21.
Tare da CVDD, wasu mahimman bayanan on-chain da Rafael ya bayyana sun haɗa da Realized Price ($54,000), Balanced Price ($40,000), da Delta Price ($35,000). Don sake samun ƙarfin gwiwa don farfadowa, manazarcin ya bayyana cewa Bitcoin yana buƙatar sake kwato yankin farashi tsakanin $75,000 da $78,000, inda STH cost basis, True Market Mean, da matsakaicin motsi na kwanaki 200 suka haɗu.
Hotuna daga Shutterstock, jadawali daga TradingView.
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa
Ga jerin tambayoyin da ake yi yawa game da bayanan CVDD na Bitcoin da abin da zai iya nufi ga ƙasan kasuwa, an rubuta su cikin yanayin magana na yau da kullun.
Tambayoyi na Matakin Farko
1 Menene CVDD? Ina jin labarinsa amma menene ainihin ma'anarsa?
CVDD na nufin Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed. Wani ma'auni ne na on-chain mai rikitarwa wanda ke kallon tsawon lokacin da tsabar kudi suka zauna ba motsi kafin su motsa. Ka yi tunaninsa a matsayin hanyar auna tsohon kuɗi yana canja hannu. Lokacin da tsofaffin tsabar kudi suka fara motsi, sau da yawa yana nuna babban canji a kasuwa.
2 Ta yaya CVDD ke taimakawa hasashen ƙasan kasuwa?
A tarihi, lokacin da CVDD ya kai matsayi mai ƙanƙanta idan aka kwatanta da baya, sau da yawa yana nuna ƙasan farashi a lokacin kasuwar bear. Manufar ita ce, lokacin da masu riƙe na dogon lokaci suka sayar, yana haifar da wani lamari na mika wuya—babban igiyar tsoro ta ƙarshe kafin farashin ya daidaita ya fara farfadowa.
3 To, shin bayanan CVDD na yanzu suna nufin mun tabbata mun kai ƙasa?
Ba tabbata ba. Babu wani ma'auni guda ɗaya da yake kwallin hasashen gaba. Amma bayanan suna da alamar tarihi mai ƙarfi. Idan CVDD yana nuna irin ƙanƙancin da ya yi a ƙasan kasuwa na baya, yana nuna cewa muna cikin yanki mai kyau na siye. Alama ce mai kyau, ba garanti ba.
4 Shin CVDD abu ne da zan iya duba shi da kaina ko kuma na masana ne kawai?
Kana iya duba shi da kaina. Yawancin shafukan nazarin crypto kyauta suna da jadawalin CVDD. Nemi layin da ke kwatanta ma'aunin da farashin Bitcoin. Lokacin da layin ya yi zurfi a yankin da ba a kima, wannan ita ce alamar.
Tambayoyi na Matsakaici da Ci Gaba
5 Ta yaya CVDD ya bambanta da sauran alamun ƙasa kamar MVRV Z-Score ko Puell Multiple?
Tambaya mai kyau. MVRV yana kallon rabon darajar kasuwa zuwa darajar da aka samu. Puell Multiple yana kallon kudaden shiga na masu hakar ma'adinai. CVDD ya bambanta domin yana mai da hankali kan