Bitcoin’s latest on-chain data is starting to look less like panic and more like patience. According to CryptoQuant data highlighted by crypto analyst Darkfost, the supply held by long-term holders has climbed back to 15.26 million BTC, a level last seen in August 2025. This shift comes at a sensitive time for Bitcoin, as the price struggles to build strength around $80,000, with traders split between expecting another breakdown or a recovery.
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Long-Term Holders Add 316,000 BTC In 30 Days
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) supply has recovered to 15.26 million BTC, matching levels from August 2025. But the key detail isn’t just that the supply is rising—it’s how fast it’s increased over the past month. LTH supply has grown by about 316,000 BTC in the last 30 days. This means more coins are aging into long-term holder status, a category for investors who have held Bitcoin for at least six months and are less likely to react to short-term price swings.
As shown in the chart below, the green bars representing the 30-day change in LTH supply have turned positive in recent weeks. This marks a clear reversal from the red distribution phase that dominated late 2025. At the end of November, the same 30-day metric showed a negative change of about 650,000 BTC, meaning a large amount of supply had left long-term holder wallets during that period. That earlier phase coincided with a weaker market structure, as Bitcoin fell from its October 2025 all-time high and entered a deeper correction.
Bitcoin LTH Supply Change
Darkfost also linked this change to the earlier movement of 800,000 BTC from Coinbase. He suggests that May 23 could become an important date for on-chain discussions, as those coins will officially cross the six-month threshold. Once that happens, there may be more commentary about how much of that supply is being reclassified as long-term holdings.
Bitcoin Showing Strength
The long-term holder data also aligns with a separate outlook from analyst Michaël van de Poppe, who noted that the market may be too focused on new lows. According to him, Bitcoin’s 25% rebound from its recent lows—despite concerns over war in the Middle East and rising yields—shows resilience. He argues that losing the 21-day moving average doesn’t automatically mean Bitcoin must fall to new lows, especially since the price is still holding above $76,000.
Van de Poppe also compared Bitcoin to gold, noting that the BTC/gold RSI has dropped to one of its lowest readings ever. However, previous low readings in this ratio didn’t happen at the start of a bear market—they came at the beginning of stronger Bitcoin phases.
Bitcoin Price Chart. Source: @CryptoMichNL On X
A crash to new lows would require Bitcoin to break below the 200-week moving average, something that would go against most cycle behavior, except for extreme shocks like the Luna and FTX collapses in 2022.
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This doesn’t mean Bitcoin can’t test lower support. A move to $70,000 could still happen as a support test, but the difference is that he doesn’t see new lows as the most likely outcome.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Frequently Asked Questions
Here is a list of FAQs about Bitcoins longterm holder supply returning to August 2025 levels with clear simple answers
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does longterm holder supply mean
It refers to the total amount of Bitcoin that hasnt moved or been sold for at least 155 days These are coins held by investors who tend to keep them for years not days
2 Why is it a big deal that 316000 BTC moved into strong hands
Strong hands are investors who are unlikely to sell soon even if prices drop When a large amount of Bitcoin moves to these holders it reduces the supply available for trading which can support higher prices over time
3 What happened in August 2025 that makes this comparison important
In August 2025 Bitcoins price was near an alltime high and longterm holder supply was at a peak Returning to that level now suggests that patient investors are accumulating again similar to behavior seen during a strong bull market
4 Does this mean Bitcoins price will go up immediately
Not necessarily Its a positive signal but prices can still be volatile in the short term It usually points to a longterm trend not an instant jump
5 How do I know if Im a longterm holder
If youve held your Bitcoin for over 5 months without selling youre considered a longterm holder The key is patience and not reacting to daily price swings
AdvancedLevel Questions
6 How is longterm holder supply measured and whats the 155day threshold
Analysts use onchain data from the blockchain The 155day threshold is a statistical cutoff where coins become statistically less likely to be spent Its based on historical patterns of investor behavior
7 Why is the return to August 2025 levels significant given that was a market top
August 2025 was a local top but longterm holders were accumulating before that peak Returning to that supply level now suggests we might be in a similar accumulation phase before a potential breakout Its about the pattern of accumulation not the specific price
8 Could this signal a supply shock
Yes When 316