Arthur Hayes is placing a high-conviction bet on Hyperliquid, suggesting in a new essay that its token, HYPE, could rise to $150 by August 2026, even if the broader crypto market remains weak. His argument follows a familiar playbook for exchange tokens, but adapts it to a market where decentralized perpetual exchanges, rather than centralized ones, are capturing the most valuable trading activity.
Hayes sees Hyperliquid as a standout asset in a slow or sideways market because exchanges can continue to generate fees regardless of price direction. This is especially relevant for Hyperliquid, he argues, since 97% of the protocol’s revenue is used to buy back HYPE from the market. “Hyperliquid, the dominant perpetual DEX, is the largest revenue-generating project that isn’t a stablecoin,” he wrote. “No other project in all of crypto returns as much money to token holders as Hyperliquid.”
His $150 target implies roughly a 5x increase from its current price of around $30. To reach this, Hayes says Hyperliquid would need to boost its 30-day annualized revenue to $1.4 billion—a level it previously hit in August of last year. His model also assumes the market will rerate the token’s valuation from about 12 times earnings to roughly 25.2 times, which is still below or in line with major traditional exchanges.
A key part of his thesis is that Hyperliquid doesn’t need overall growth in crypto derivatives trading to succeed; it simply needs to keep taking market share from centralized exchanges. Hayes calculates that a 3.97 percentage-point increase in market share would be enough for Hyperliquid to return to that $1.4 billion annualized revenue rate.
He points to HIP-3, Hyperliquid’s permissionless perpetuals listing framework, as the engine for this next phase. Users who stake 500,000 HYPE can launch markets using the platform’s matching and margin engine. Hayes highlights early traction in markets like silver, gold, the Nasdaq 100, and the S&P 500. “In only four months, HIP-3 volumes account for close to 10% of total Hyperliquid revenues,” he wrote. “Permissionless listings were always the holy grail of DEXs, and the rapid growth in trading volumes proves this is how Hyperliquid will differentiate itself from the pack.” His model assumes HIP-3 revenue will grow 160% over the next six months.
He also mentions HIP-4, which could enable permissionless prediction markets, as a potential upside factor not included in his base case.
Addressing competition, Hayes argues that headline trading volumes across perpetual DEXs can be distorted by wash trading, points farming, and other incentives, making raw volume a poor measure of real usage. Instead, he prefers the metric of average daily volume relative to open interest (ADV-to-OI), since open interest requires real capital. On this basis, he says Hyperliquid has the most “real” volume among the top five perpetual DEXs. He also notes that order-book snapshots for Bitcoin perpetuals showed Hyperliquid was often the cheapest place to execute large trades when slippage was factored in.
Hayes also discusses token supply, an issue that made him tactically bearish late last year. He notes that the team distributed nearly 20% of awarded tokens in November and December, but only about 1% in January and February. “With that out of the way, the team drastically reduced distributions in order to help HYPE rebound,” he wrote, while acknowledging this part is speculative.
Even in a stress case, Hayes remains constructive. He suggests that if the market only values the token at 12 times earnings and the team receives 9.91 million HYPE per month, but revenue still recovers to $1.4 billion annualized, the token would be worth about $58—roughly 75% above current levels.
At the time of writing, HYPE is trading at $33.237.dingView.com
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Arthur Hayes 150 HYPE Token Forecast
Basics The Forecast
Q Who is Arthur Hayes and why does his opinion matter
A Arthur Hayes is a cofounder of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX and a highly influential figure in the crypto industry His forecasts are closely watched due to his deep experience and historical market insights
Q What exactly did Arthur Hayes predict about Hyperliquids HYPE token
A Hayes publicly forecasted that the HYPE token could reach a price of 150 by August 2026 This is a specific price target and timeline based on his analysis
Q What is Hyperliquid and what is the HYPE token used for
A Hyperliquid is a decentralized exchange focused on perpetual futures trading The HYPE token is its native governance and utility token used for fee discounts staking and participating in protocol decisions
Understanding the Prediction
Q Is this a guarantee that HYPE will hit 150
A No It is a personal forecast or prediction not a guarantee Cryptocurrency prices are extremely volatile and influenced by countless unpredictable factors
Q What reasons did Hayes give for this bullish prediction
A While specific details of his full thesis may evolve it generally centers on the growth potential of the Hyperliquid platform increased adoption of decentralized perpetuals trading and the tokens utility within its ecosystem
Q How does the current price compare to the 150 target
A The current price is significantly lower than 150 This represents a substantial potential increase which highlights both the opportunity and the highrisk highreward nature of the prediction
Risks Considerations
Q What are the biggest risks that could prevent HYPE from reaching 150
A Major risks include a prolonged crypto bear market regulatory crackdowns on DeFi or derivatives critical technical failures or smart contract exploits on Hyperliquid strongerthanexpected competition or a failure to grow its user base
Q Is it too late to buy HYPE based on this forecast
A There is no definitive answer The forecast targets August 2026 suggesting a longterm view