Bitcoin’s long-term holders have halted their net selling, according to several on-chain analysts. This shift could remove a significant source of ongoing supply pressure as we approach 2026.
On-chain analyst Darkfost highlighted a key metric: the change in supply held by long-term holders—those holding coins for more than six months. After months of decline, this metric has recently turned slightly positive. Darkfost argues that while some reports claimed long-term holders were “selling more than ever,” the data was skewed by large, one-time movements, such as nearly 800,000 BTC from Coinbase. After adjusting for these distortions, a clear change is visible.
“Since July 16, the monthly LTH supply change had been firmly in a distribution phase until recently,” Darkfost noted. In practical terms, this meant the amount of Bitcoin held long-term was decreasing throughout much of the second half of 2025, typically creating persistent sell pressure as older coins entered the market. That phase now appears to have ended.
“We have now moved back into positive territory, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long-term held coins,” Darkfost wrote, calling it a modest but not insignificant change. The implication is that long-term holders have slowed their selling enough for their total holdings to begin growing again, even as short-term holders continue to hold.
This view is supported by other analysts. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated simply, “Bitcoin long-term holders stopped selling.” Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, described the turn as a meaningful shift: “BTC: Long-term holders turn net accumulators, easing a major Bitcoin headwind and ending, for now, the largest sell pressure event from this cohort since 2019.”
Expert James Van Straten added historical context, noting that a similar scale of distribution marked the market bottom in 2019, suggesting the current inflection point is significant, even if it doesn’t guarantee an identical outcome.
Darkfost also pointed to historical patterns, stating, “Historically, such shifts have often preceded the formation of consolidation phases or even bullish recoveries, depending on how the broader trend evolves.”
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin is trading at $88,623.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin LongTerm Holders Stopping Sales
Beginner Questions
What does it mean that longterm holders have stopped selling
It means that investors who have held Bitcoin for a significant period are no longer moving their coins to exchanges to sell based on blockchain data analysis
Why is this news important
Its a strong signal of confidence When longterm investors hold instead of sell it reduces the available supply on the market which can reduce selling pressure and potentially support or increase the price
Who are longterm holders
They are typically investors who buy and hold Bitcoin for the long term often through market cycles rather than trading frequently They are sometimes called HODLers
What is onchain data
Its information recorded directly on the Bitcoin blockchain like transaction amounts wallet addresses and holding times Analysts use this public data to understand investor behavior
Is this a guarantee the price will go up
No its not a guarantee Its a positive indicator from one data set but the price is influenced by many other factors like regulations macroeconomic news and overall market sentiment
Intermediate Market Impact Questions
What usually causes longterm holders to start selling
LTHs often sell during major price peaks periods of extreme greed or during financial emergencies Their selling is often seen as a potential top signal
Whats the difference between this and exchange outflows
Exchange outflows mean coins are moving from exchanges to private wallets LTHs stopping sales is a related but broader behavioral metric showing existing holders are not sending coins to exchanges to sell
Couldnt they just be moving coins between their own wallets
Yes thats possible Sophisticated onchain analysis tries to filter for this by tracking coins moving to known exchange wallets versus other private wallets
Does this mean theres no more selling at all
No Shortterm holders and miners still sell This data specifically points to a reduction in selling from the most committed investor cohort
What historical patterns are analysts comparing this to
Similar periods of LTH inactivity have often occurred during the early to middle stages of bull markets and after major price corrections preceding periods of