Talla: Bitcoin na fuskantar matsin lamba yayin da yake gwada matakin tallafi na $62,000. Idan wannan matakin ya karye, zai nuna babban fadada gyare-gyaren da ake yi daga kololuwar zagayowar kuma zai gwada tushen tsarin da masu saye suka dogara da shi a duk lokacin raguwar. Rashin ƙarfi na gaske ne, kuma matsin sayarwa yana ci gaba. XWIN Research Japan ta buga wani bincike wanda ya yanke ta cikin labaran da ke gaba da juna don gano abin da bayanan kan-sarkar ke nuna a matsayin ainihin abin da ke haifar da wannan gyare-gyaren.
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Bayani da ke yawo a kasuwa sun haɗa da rikice-rikicen siyasa da manufofin Babban Bankin Amurka da kuma siyar da Bitcoin kaɗan da Strategy ta yi kwanan nan. Amma binciken CryptoQuant na XWIN Research Japan ya nuna wani dalili mafi sauƙi, mafi mahimmanci: masu saye sun ɓace.
Injin da ke bayan hawan Bitcoin daga 2024 zuwa 2025 ba wai amfani da kari ba ne, motsin jama'a, ko wuce gona da iri na hasashe ba. Ya kasance kwararar kuɗi akai-akai, a hankali zuwa cikin ETF na Bitcoin na Amurka — tushen buƙata na tsari wanda ya sha wadata a hankali kuma ya ba da tallafin saye wanda ya tura farashin sama. A cikin 2026, wannan injin ya koma baya. Fitowar ETF ya karu, kuma Coinbase Premium ya kasance mara kyau na dogon lokaci. Wannan ya tabbatar da cewa buƙatar cibiyoyin Amurka — mafi dorewa kuma mafi mahimmancin nau'in mai saye da kasuwa ta taɓa gani — ta daina tara kuɗi a hankali.
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap | Source: CryptoQuant
Bayanan Realized Cap ya nuna tasirin. Realized Cap na Bitcoin ya ragu daga kusan dala tiriliyan 1.12 zuwa dala tiriliyan 1.08 — raguwar kusan dala biliyan 40 na jari da ke barin hanyar sadarwa. Lokacin da wannan ma'auni, wanda ke auna ainihin jarin da aka saka, ya faɗi da yawa haka, kasuwa ba kawai tana fuskantar canjin ra'ayi ba. Tana fuskantar cire buƙata na gaske.
Bitcoin Realized Cap | Source: CryptoQuant
Biliyan 40 Sun Bar Hanyar Sadarwa
Binciken XWIN Research Japan ya bi diddigin inda wannan jari ya tafi bayan barin Bitcoin. Hannun jarin Amurka — musamman kamfanonin da ke da alaƙa da AI waɗanda ke da ƙarfin haɓaka riba, shirye-shiryen sake siyan hannun jari masu ƙarfi, da matsayi mafi girma a cikin S&P 500 — sun ba da jari mai gasa wanda cibiyoyi da yawa suka fi son Bitcoin a yanayin ƙimar da ake ciki. Jarin bai ɓace ba. Ya juya zuwa kadarori masu ganin haɓakar riba da abubuwan motsa jiki na kusa waɗanda tsarin dogaro da ruwa na Bitcoin ba zai iya daidaita su ba a halin yanzu.
Kasuwar gaba ta ƙara girman raguwar farashin amma ba ta haifar da shi ba. Open Interest ya ragu sosai, Funding Rates ya daidaita, kuma sama da dala miliyan 150 na matsayi na dogon lokaci da aka yi amfani da kari an lalata su tsakanin Yuni 3 da Yuni 4. Waɗannan lalata sun kasance sakamakon raunin buƙata, ba dalilinta ba — abubuwan da aka samo asali sun warware cikin kasuwa wadda ta riga ta rasa sayen wuri da ake buƙata don sha sayarwa ta tilas.
Kwatanta da 2022 yana ba da mafi kyawun fahimta daga binciken. Masu riƙe na dogon lokaci sun kasance da yawa. Ma'auni na musanya har yanzu suna da ƙarancin tarihi. Wannan gyare-gyare baya kama da wadataccen wadata da ke haifar da firgita wanda ya nuna rugujewar zagayowar da ta gabata. Matsalar ba ita ce yawan sayarwa ba. Ƙarancin saye ne.
Sharuɗɗan farfadowa, kamar yadda aka bayyana a cikin rahoton, suna da takamaiman: kwararar ETF ta dawo zuwa yanki mai kyau, Coinbase Premium ta warke sama da sifili, Realized Cap ta fara haɓaka, kuma tattara jari a hannun jarin AI ya fara raguwa. Waɗannan su ne alamun da za su tabbatar da cewa buƙata tana dawowa maimakon ci gaba da juyawa.
Gyare-gyaren Yuni ya haifar da buƙata. Babban yanayin Bitcoin na gaba za a ƙaddara shi ta hanyar wannan ƙarfin da ya haifar da shi.
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Bitcoin na ci gaba da fuskantar matsin lamba mai ƙarfi bayan sayarwa mai ƙarfi wanda ya shafe duk farfadowar Afrilu-Masu kuma ya tura farashin baya zuwa Bitcoin yanzu yana gwada wannan yankin tallafi wanda ya nuna ƙarancin Fabrairu. A kan ginshiƙi na yau da kullun, BTC yana ciniki a kusan $62,500 bayan ya ɗan faɗi kusa da $61,000, yana sanya kasuwa a cikin mafi mahimmancin yankin buƙata na shekara. Bitcoin yana haɗuwa a ƙasa da matakin $63,000. (Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView)
A fasahance, tsarin ya raunana sosai. Bitcoin ya rasa yankin tallafi na $72,000–$74,000, wanda ya kasance mahimmin maki na juyawa a cikin Afrilu da Mayu. Wannan yanki yanzu ya zama juriya kuma zai zama babban cikas na farko idan tashin hankali ya faru. Mafi mahimmanci, rushewar ta faru da ƙarar hauhawa, yana nuna cewa motsin yana haifar da sayarwa mai ƙarfi maimakon kawai rashin ruwa na ɗan lokaci.
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Kasuwa yanzu tana gwada yankin ƙasan Fabrairu kusa da $61,000–$64,000. Ba kamar ja da baya na baya ba, ana gwada wannan tallafi bayan jerin ƙananan kololuwa da ƙananan ƙasa, yana tabbatar da tsarin kasuwa mai rauni akan lokaci na yau da kullun. BTC kuma yana ciniki a ƙasa da matsakaitan motsi na kwanaki 50, 100, da 200, wanda ke ƙarfafa ikon masu sayarwa.
Duk da haka, wannan yanki yana da mahimmancin tarihi. Ƙarancin Fabrairu a ƙarshe ya haifar da farfadowa na watanni da yawa. Idan masu saye suka kare wannan yanki, Bitcoin na iya fara gina tushe da daidaitawa. Amma idan tallafi ya karye da ƙarfi, makasudin ƙasa na gaba shine matakin tunani na $60,000, sannan kuma yankin $50,000 mai girma.
Hoton da aka nuna daga ChatGPT, ginshiƙi daga TradingView.com
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa dangane da batun Me yasa Bitcoin ya fadi Bayanan kan-sarkar sun nuna wani abu daya rasa
Tambayoyin Matakin Farko
Tambaya Menene ma'anar bayanan kan-sarkar
Amsa Bayanai ne da ke fitowa kai tsaye daga sarkar Bitcoin — kamar yawan tsabar kudi da ke motsawa, yawan sabbin asusun da ake ƙirƙira, da nawa masu hakar ma'adinai ke sayarwa. Yana nuna abin da masu amfani na gaske da manyan masu riƙe suke yi a zahiri.
Tambaya To menene wannan abu daya rasa da ya haifar da faduwar
Amsa Ƙarfin buƙata mai ƙarfi daga sabbin masu saye. Bayanan kan-sarkar sun nuna cewa yayin da wadata ke ƙaruwa, babu isassun sabbin masu saka jari ko manyan masu saye da suka shiga don sha wannan wadata.
Tambaya Wannan yana nufin Bitcoin ya fadi saboda mummunan labari ko kutse ne
Amsa A'a. Ba wani abu daya ba ne kamar kutse ko haramcin gwamnati. Canji ne a hankali a yanayin kasuwa — ƙarin tsabar kudi da ake sayarwa fiye da saye, wanda ya tura farashin ƙasa.
Tambaya Faduwar Bitcoin abu ne na al'ada
Amsa Ee. Bitcoin a tarihi yana shiga zagayowar hauhawa da faduwa. Wannan faduwa ta dace da tsarin girgizar wadata inda masu sayarwa suka fi masu saye yawa.
Tambayoyin Matakin Matsakaici
Tambaya Wane ma'auni na kan-sarkar ne ya nuna cewa buƙata ta ɓace
Amsa Ma'auni biyu masu mahimmanci: Kwararar shiga da fita daga musanya da Adireshi Masu Aiki.
Tambaya Shin masu riƙe na dogon lokaci ne suka haifar da faduwar
Amsa Wani ɓangare. Bayanan kan-sarkar sun nuna cewa masu riƙe na dogon lokaci sun fara rarraba tsabar kudinsu a farashi mai girma. Yawanci hakan yana da kyau idan sabuwar buƙata ta dace da shi. Wannan lokacin buƙata ba ta kasance ba, don haka farashin ya fadi.
Tambaya Yaya rashin buƙata ke haifar da faduwar farashin a zahiri
Amsa Ka yi tunanin siyarwa a gida inda kowa ke sayarwa amma mutane kaɗan ne kawai ke saye. Masu sayarwa dole ne su rage farashinsu don jawo hankalin 'yan masu saye. Wannan shi ne ainihin abin da ya faru a kasuwa.
Tambaya Za a iya hasashen faduwar ta amfani da wannan bayanan