On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has noted that Bitcoin’s recent consolidation phase has seen only a relatively narrow band of accumulation. In a new post on X, Glassnode discussed the latest trend in the Bitcoin Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) for short-term holders. The CBD indicator shows how much supply was purchased at various price levels throughout Bitcoin’s history.
Specifically, the CBD for short-term holders (STHs) tracks supply bought within the last 155 days. Because of this short timeframe, supply clusters on the indicator naturally thin out over time—either as coins are moved to other price levels (updating their cost basis) or as they mature into the long-term holder (LTH) category after exceeding the 155-day threshold.
The chart shared by Glassnode illustrates how the Bitcoin STH CBD has evolved over the past year. It reveals a large supply cluster formed at the price lows last November, indicating significant accumulation following the market downturn. This dense supply zone acted as a support cushion, helping to stabilize Bitcoin into a consolidation phase.
However, bearish momentum eventually returned, pushing the price well below this cluster and leaving all associated tokens underwater. In addition to the strong supply zone at the lower end of the range, the consolidation from November to January also saw some supply accumulate at higher price levels. While not as substantial as the low-end accumulation, this still reflected active trading.
Recently, Bitcoin has entered another period of sideways movement. The chart shows that, this time, there has been neither a strong dip-buying response nor a significant buildup of supply clusters as the consolidation has progressed. That said, buying hasn’t been entirely absent, with some supply beginning to establish a cost basis within the current range.
“An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range,” Glassnode observed. “However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions.”
It remains to be seen how this supply range will develop in the near term. For now, according to the analytics firm, the foundation it provides remains too thin to support a mid-term breakout.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $71,100, up nearly 5% over the past week.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Foundation for a Sustained Breakout
BeginnerLevel Questions
What does Bitcoins foundation for a sustained breakout appears weak mean
It means that current market data suggests Bitcoin might not have enough underlying buying support to push its price significantly higher and keep it there for a long time
What is cost basis data
Cost basis is essentially the average price at which investors bought their Bitcoin Its a key metric that shows whether the market as a whole is sitting on profits or losses at the current price
Why is cost basis data important
It helps gauge overall market sentiment and potential selling pressure If the price falls below the average cost basis many investors are underwater and may be less likely to sell but they also arent providing strong buying support for a rally
What is a sustained breakout
A sustained breakout is when an assets price rises decisively above a key resistance level and stays above that level signaling a strong lasting upward trend rather than a temporary spike
So is Bitcoin definitely not going to go up
Not necessarily This analysis points to a current weakness in the foundation not a certainty Markets can change quickly with new news events or shifts in investor behavior
Advanced Practical Questions
How exactly does weak cost basis data suggest a weak foundation
If the current price is hovering near or below the aggregate cost basis of many investors it indicates a lack of strong new capital entering at higher prices For a sustained breakout you typically need consistent buying from new investors willing to pay increasingly higher prices creating a rising cost basis floor
What other data should I look at alongside cost basis
Key metrics to consider include
Exchange Net Flows Are coins moving to exchanges or from them
MVRV Ratio Compares market value to realized value A low MVRV can indicate undervaluation
LongTerm Holder Supply Are the most experienced investors accumulating or distributing coins
Macroeconomic factors Interest rates and liquidity in traditional markets
Could this weak foundation lead to a deeper price correction
Yes it increases the risk If the price struggles to move higher