Bitcoin is still struggling to break back above $65,000, held down by ongoing selling pressure and weak market sentiment. Recent weeks have seen subdued price action with high volatility, as tightening liquidity and broader economic uncertainty curb risk appetite. The repeated failure to hold above this key level has made traders cautious, keeping Bitcoin in a defensive state rather than signaling an early recovery.
Top analyst Axel Adler points to on-chain data supporting this view. The realized capitalization—which values Bitcoin based on the price each coin last moved at—has fallen for two months in a row. At the same time, the share of coins held for 3–6 months has grown significantly, as coins bought near the cycle’s peak mature into that category. This pattern usually indicates a post-peak market rather than new accumulation.
The 30-day change in realized cap is currently around -2.26%, showing continued capital leaving the network. Realized cap peaked near $1.127 trillion in late November 2025 and has since dropped to roughly $1.094 trillion—a compression of about $33 billion. Until this metric turns positive again, signs of renewed buying demand remain scarce.
HODL Waves Point to a Defensive Market
Adler notes that HODL Waves data further confirms Bitcoin’s defensive phase. The chart shows a sharp rise in the 3–6 month coin-age group, which now makes up about 25.9% of the circulating supply. This reflects a growing portion of coins last moved between August and November 2025—largely purchased near the market top.
HODL Waves track how long Bitcoin has been held without moving. An expansion in older cohorts often means reduced trading activity. Here, however, it suggests many investors are holding at a loss rather than accumulating with confidence. The 3–6 month group has jumped from around 19% at the start of February, while the 6–12 month cohort has also grown to about 20.2%. In contrast, coins held for less than a month combined account for only 9.3%, pointing to limited new demand.
With realized cap declining and supply aging without fresh capital inflows, Bitcoin’s market structure is likely to stay defensive. A shift to a more bullish outlook would require new buying activity and for the 3–6 month holdings to migrate into longer-term bands without being sold.
Bitcoin Momentum Weakens as Price Tests Key Support
Bitcoin’s 3-day chart shows clear deterioration as the price falls toward the $63,000 area. After failing to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 supply zone earlier this year, BTC entered a distribution range before breaking decisively below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages. That breakdown triggered a sharp drop, confirming a continuation of the downtrend.
The price now trades well below the 50 SMA (around $92,000) and the 100 SMA (around $101,500), both of which have turned lower and act as resistance. The 200 SMA near the low-$90,000s also remains far above the current price, reinforcing the bearish trend. With shorter-term averages below longer-term ones, the alignment confirms negative momentum and ongoing downward pressure.During the recent selloff, trading volume increased, pointing to active selling rather than a quiet decline. The sharp rejection from the mid-$90,000 range, followed by strong downward moves, shows sellers are still in charge. Structurally, the $60,000–$62,000 zone now stands as the next key support area. If Bitcoin breaks and holds below that level, it could fall further. For the market to stabilize, Bitcoin would need to recover at least the $75,000–$80,000 range and start forming higher highs again—something current momentum does not yet support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about The 33 Billion Exodus Bitcoins Realized Cap Plummets as Capital Flees the Network for a Second Straight Month designed for a range of readers
Beginner Definition Questions
1 What does Realized Cap mean
The Realized Cap is a way to measure Bitcoins total value by looking at the price each coin last moved at rather than its current market price It essentially shows the total capital stored in Bitcoin based on what investors actually paid for their coins
2 What does it mean that capital is fleeing the network
It means that over the last two months more money has been taken out of Bitcoin than has been put in The total value of capital invested as measured by the Realized Cap has decreased by 33 billion
3 Is this just the price going down
Not exactly While the price drop is part of it the Realized Cap specifically tracks the behavior of investors A falling Realized Cap during a price drop confirms that longterm holders are selling their coins realizing losses or taking profits which shows a real exodus of capital
4 Why is this news happening now
This is likely a reaction to broader economic factors like high interest rates inflation and riskoff sentiment in traditional markets When investors get nervous they often sell riskier assets like Bitcoin
Intermediate Impact Questions
5 Is a falling Realized Cap a bad sign
In the short term yes It indicates selling pressure and a lack of new buyers However from a longterm perspective these capitulation phases have often marked major price bottoms in Bitcoins history where weaker hands sell to stronger longterm believers
6 Who is selling
The data suggests its likely a mix of
Longterm holders finally taking profits after years
Shortterm traders cutting losses
Institutional investors rebalancing portfolios away from risk
7 How is this different from just looking at trading volume
Trading volume just shows how many coins are being traded The Realized Cap tells you