Macro trader Plur Daddy (@plur_daddy) argues that Bitcoin’s outlook for 2026 depends less on crypto-specific events and more on whether U.S. liquidity conditions return to normal after an unusually tight period for risk assets. He claims the financial system’s “plumbing” has been strained by a shortage of bank reserves, as leverage grew faster than the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet. This stress, he says, led to choppy and rotational stock market behavior alongside a tough environment for crypto.
Heading into the new year, he expects several gradual shifts that could ease conditions from tight back toward neutral, even if they don’t create a new “loose” policy regime. He outlines four key macro themes:
First are the Fed’s Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs). Since announcing $40 billion per month for three months starting in December, the Fed has already bought $38 billion of the first month’s allocation. He notes the impact hasn’t been felt yet due to year-end financial adjustments, but that should change. He stresses this program is meant to relieve funding pressure, not to fuel a market rally like quantitative easing. While gauging the exact reserve shortfall is imprecise, he estimates it at $100-200 billion, meaning one month of RMPs won’t fix everything but should have a meaningful impact in shifting from tight to normal conditions.
Second is fiscal policy. He expects a modest widening of the deficit, by about $12-15 billion per month starting January 1, due to certain budget impacts. He argues recent market softness was partly due to deficit contraction from tariffs, so even a partial reversal is incrementally positive. He also notes a smaller regulatory tailwind for banks starting January 1, with broader deregulation potentially coming in 2026.
Third is disinflation and the Fed’s policy path. He points to falling market-based inflation expectations, calling it a “Goldilocks setup” where the economy is weak but not too weak, giving the Fed room to keep cutting rates. While markets currently price in only two rate cuts for 2024, he expects closer to four under normal policy, and even more if Trump wins the presidency.
Finally, he argues politics could matter through the appointment of the Fed Chair. He believes Trump values loyalty above all and felt betrayed by current Chair Jerome Powell. He suggests Kevin Hassett is a very likely candidate if Trump returns to office, noting that such a nomination would likely benefit gold, while possibly causing initial concern in equity markets.but also think they will ultimately go up.” For Bitcoin, his conclusion is cautious but leans positive if these broader economic factors align. “In theory, all of this should be good for crypto,” he wrote. “I probably won’t invest in it myself, as I prefer gold in this situation, and crypto is becoming a mentally taxing bet.” However, he did hint at timing: “That said, if you were going to be bullish, the case could be made that now is around the time. Don’t take excessive risks; watch for changes in market behavior and a positive reaction as liquidity improves.” At the time of reporting, BTC was trading at $87,053.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about an analyst outlining key macroeconomic factors that could impact Bitcoin in 2026 designed to be clear and conversational
Beginner General Questions
1 What are macroeconomic factors and why do they matter for Bitcoin
Macroeconomic factors are largescale economic forces that affect an entire economy like interest rates inflation and government policies They matter for Bitcoin because they influence investor behavior When traditional markets are shaky some investors turn to assets like Bitcoin as an alternative
2 Is Bitcoin really tied to the global economy I thought it was separate
While Bitcoin operates on a decentralized network its price is heavily influenced by the global economy Most people buy and sell it using traditional currencies so decisions made by central banks and governments directly impact the flow of money into or out of assets like Bitcoin
3 Whats the single biggest macro factor for Bitcoin
Historically central bank monetary policyespecially decisions on interest rates by the US Federal Reservehas been the most significant driver When rates are low or falling Bitcoin tends to perform better as investors seek higher returns When rates are high or rising money often flows back into safer interestbearing assets
Specific Factor Questions
4 How could US interest rates in 2026 affect Bitcoin
If rates are cut or low This could be bullish for Bitcoin Cheaper borrowing costs and lower returns on savings accounts can push investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin in search of growth
If rates are high or rising This could be bearish Safer assets like bonds become more attractive potentially pulling money away from Bitcoin
5 What about inflation
Bitcoin is often called digital gold and seen as a hedge against inflation If inflation remains high or surges in 2026 demand for Bitcoin could increase as people look to protect their wealth from losing value However if central banks aggressively fight inflation with high rates that negative pressure can outweigh the inflation hedge narrative
6 Could a recession in 2026 impact Bitcoins price
Its complex Initially a severe recession might cause a selloff in