Bitcoin investors expecting a major macroeconomic boost might be misjudging the situation. In an interview with Coin Stories host Natalie Brunell, macro analyst Lyn Alden suggested that the next shift in monetary policy is more likely to involve a slow, gradual expansion of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, rather than the massive “nuclear” money printing that has historically fueled risk assets like bitcoin. This means bitcoin will need to rely more on its own fundamentals and market narrative to gain ground.
Alden described the current market cycle as surprisingly lackluster, not just in price performance but also in terms of participant engagement. She observed that market sentiment “is worse than 2022,” blaming the slump on a lack of retail investor interest, the absence of a surge in alternative cryptocurrencies (“alt season”), and a broader crypto market that has “kind of run out of narratives.” Bitcoin, she noted, peaked at $126,000, which fell short of her own expectations for a successful cycle.
She challenged the common assumption that every market downturn forces the Fed to act, stating, “Sometimes they give their time frames so we can just see if it hits that time frame or not.” Alden explained, “Every kind of downtick in stocks… they say well we’re going to have to print soon. But really the Fed only cares mainly about the liquidity of the treasury market and the interbank lending market… even stocks going down 10, 20, 30% is not really going to be a catalyst.”
Brunell referenced comments she attributed to Fed Chair Jerome Powell about “slowly” expanding the balance sheet, starting with purchases of around $40 billion in short-term Treasury bills—a far cry from the trillions some bitcoin optimists anticipate. Alden responded bluntly, stating that current financial conditions don’t require a dramatic stimulus response. “Mainly because the conditions are not such that they would need a big print in the near future,” she said. While certain scenarios could still lead to significant money printing, she argued that “when you kind of run the numbers of how much debt is coming out, how levered or unlevered banks are, they just don’t really need a lot of printing. A little printing gets them a long way.”
According to Alden, the large-scale interventions seen during QE1 were a response to a specific crisis: an overleveraged banking system with low cash reserves and severe private-sector stress. Today, she contends that bank cash ratios are “still pretty high,” and without a major disruption like another pandemic or a significant escalation in geopolitical or financial conflict, the most likely path is one of slow, incremental policy moves.
This matters because, in Alden’s view, gradual balance-sheet expansion is supportive for bitcoin but not a decisive driver. The period when “macro doesn’t matter at all” is reserved for true emergency stimulus, which she doesn’t see on the immediate horizon. When asked what slow, steady quantitative easing means for bitcoin, she replied, “Not a ton, I think. It’s supportive… but Bitcoin still has to compete on its own merits for investor attention. So, you know, basically it has to compete with Nvidia… with everything out there that people can own.”
She linked the current muted cycle to “mediocre” overall demand and a competitive landscape where AI-related stocks and even precious metals are vying for investor interest. Sovereign wealth funds “didn’t really show up,” she noted, and retail investors have largely stayed on the sidelines. The main buying pressure has come from “the corporate institutional side” and higher-net-worth individuals using brokerage accounts, aided by the availability of ETFs.
Alden also downplayed the idea that derivatives and ETFs are the primary reason for bitcoin’s limited upside, even if they can temporarily “inflate” the synthetic supply. The bigger issue, she argued, is that demand simply hasn’t been strong enough to overpower a market that is now larger and more liquid.
Looking ahead, Alden expects market bottoms to form as short-term traders exit and coins shift into the hands of long-term holders, with prices more likely to recover gradually rather than in a sharp V-shaped rebound. On the upside, she pointed to a potential catalyst…In a potential scenario where AI-driven trading eventually peaks, Bitcoin could remain “cheap for a while” as it is held tightly by long-term investors. Only “a marginal amount of new demand” would then be needed to restart its upward momentum, possibly alongside continued buying from companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets. For now, her core warning is that this cycle may not be rescued by policy maneuvers. If Bitcoin is going to regain its strength, Alden suggested, it will depend less on waiting for a macroeconomic bailout and more on whether enough investors still value “self-custodial, undebasable savings,” even when other assets are capturing attention. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $67,556.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin The Macroeconomic Outlook
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does Bitcoin wont get a macroeconomic boost mean
It means that some analysts like Alden dont expect largescale economic stimulus to quickly flood into and dramatically push up Bitcoins price in the near future as it has during past crises
2 What is quantitative easing and why does it matter for Bitcoin
Quantitative easing is when a central bank creates new money to buy government bonds and other assets This increases the money supply which can weaken a currencys value Some investors see Bitcoin as a hedge against this devaluation so expectations of QE have historically driven money into Bitcoin
3 Who is Alden and why should I care about this opinion
Alden is providing a specific market outlook Its important to consider various expert opinions to form a balanced view rather than relying on a single prediction
4 If theres no big boost does that mean Bitcoins price will fall
Not necessarily It suggests one major potential tailwind might be absent or weaker Bitcoins price can still be influenced by many other factors like adoption regulation institutional investment and its own technological developments
Advanced Practical Questions
5 Why would QE be gradual this time and how does that change the dynamic
Central banks may be cautious about triggering high inflation again Gradual QE means new money enters the economy slowly which could lead to a more measured and potentially delayed reaction in riskon assets like Bitcoin unlike the sudden massive injections seen in 20202021
6 What other macroeconomic factors could influence Bitcoin if QE is off the table
Key factors include
Interest Rates High or higher for longer rates make safe assets like bonds more attractive relative to volatile ones like Bitcoin
Inflation Data Persistent inflation might still drive some hedgeseeking behavior
US Dollar Strength A strong dollar typically pressures Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies
Geopolitical Risk Can increase demand for decentralized nonsovereign assets