With just two weeks left in 2025, market participants are questioning whether Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market will continue to struggle or begin a recovery. An analyst recently discussed the current market sentiment and its potential impact on performance.
The Four-Year Crypto Cycle Is ‘Like Faith In God’
As the year draws to a close, concerns about the crypto market’s performance are growing. Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has declined 30% from its early October peak. With volatility persisting and Bitcoin trading below its yearly opening price of $93,500, some investors are questioning the validity of the four-year cycle theory, suggesting it may no longer hold true.
Responding to such comments, pseudonymous market observer Plur stated that the four-year crypto cycle has evolved and that “there is no magical rule of nature stating price must go up and down on this fixed cadence.” The analyst explained that the theory is a “memetic consensus—a form of implicit agreement and coordination where people buy and sell together at set times, thereby forcing outsiders to participate and bring their money.”
“It’s an egregore-as-cartel. It’s a large group of loosely connected people all saying, every 4 years, we are going to hike up and down this mountain at the same time,” he detailed in a Wednesday post.
Another community member added that the crypto cycle “is like faith in God: everyone believes in it, but no one has ever seen it.”
Plur noted that the initial catalyst and “original metronome” for this theory was the Bitcoin halving, but it has since become “something more than that.”
Market Struggles As Investors’ Faith Splits
The evolution of the four-year cycle has led some market participants to try to “front-run the moves of others” for greater profit. As a result, many investors began selling aggressively in 2025 in anticipation of the cycle’s end. According to Plur, this “represents a fraying in the memetic consensus, and eventually it collapses, as belief decays.”
Similarly, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood recently stated that Bitcoin is currently “climbing another wall of worry,” making investors cautious about future market performance. She explained that fears around the four-year cycle—which suggests 2026 will be a corrective year—are contributing to this anxiety.
Plur observed that the crypto market is in an uncertain state, with some investors still believing in the theory and others not. “The biggest impact that might have is not giving people enough confidence to buy on the upswing. Remember how assured you felt buying in 2023? Now the troops are scattered because the coordination mechanism is gone,” he stated.
He added, “In equities, the memetic consensus is that the index will always grind up over time—buy the dip, trust the process. I had been hopeful that something similar could emerge for BTC to replace the four-year cycle, but sell pressure was way too high,” leading to the market’s current indeterminate state.
He concluded that it’s now a waiting game to see if a new form of memetic consensus can form.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Have Crypto Investors Lost Faith in the FourYear Cycle
Beginner Definition Questions
Q1 What is the FourYear Cycle in crypto
A Its a historical pattern where Bitcoin and the broader crypto market tend to go through major bull and bear markets roughly every four years This has often been linked to Bitcoins halving events which reduce the rate of new Bitcoin creation
Q2 What is a halving and why does it matter
A A halving is a preprogrammed event in Bitcoins code that cuts the reward miners get for validating transactions in half It happens about every four years It matters because it reduces the new supply of Bitcoin entering the market which historically has preceded major price increases due to increased scarcity
Q3 What does losing faith in the cycle mean
A It means investors and traders are starting to doubt that the old fouryear pattern will reliably repeat itself in the future They might think new factors are now more important drivers of price than the historical cycle
Analysis Current Context Questions
Q4 Why are some analysts questioning the fouryear cycle now
A Several reasons the 2022 bear market was exceptionally severe the global economy is facing high inflation and interest rates and the crypto market has matured with more institutional players These new powerful factors might overshadow or distort the traditional cycle
Q5 Did the cycle fail after the 2020 halving
A Not exactly A massive bull market did follow the May 2020 halving peaking in late 2021 The questioning comes because the subsequent bear market was so deep and driven by external crises making the entire cycle feel more volatile and less predictable
Q6 If the cycle is broken what should I watch instead
A Analysts suggest paying closer attention to
Macroeconomic factors US Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and inflation data
Traditional finance flow The impact of ETFs and institutional investment
Onchain metrics Data showing activity of longterm holders vs shortterm traders