An analyst has pointed out that Bitcoin has consistently found its bottom between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV pricing bands over the past decade. Notably, Bitcoin has not yet fallen below the 1.0 MVRV band in the current cycle.
In a recent post on X, analyst Ali Martinez discussed Bitcoin’s historical price bottoms using the MVRV Pricing Bands, an on-chain model based on the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoin’s market cap—reflecting its current market value—to its realized cap, which represents the total capital invested. Essentially, this indicator shows whether Bitcoin holders are in a state of overall profit or loss.
When the MVRV ratio is above 1.0, the average investor is holding an unrealized profit. Conversely, a ratio below 1.0 indicates that losses are dominant across the network. Typically, as profits increase, investors become more likely to sell, making market tops more probable when the MVRV ratio rises well above 1.0. On the other hand, selling pressure tends to ease when most holders are at a loss, suggesting that market bottoms often occur at low MVRV levels.
Based on this behavior, Glassnode developed the MVRV Pricing Bands, which identify Bitcoin price levels corresponding to key MVRV ratio thresholds. Martinez shared a chart showing that Bitcoin has been trading below the 2.4 and 3.2 bands, around $130,000 and $174,000 respectively, where profit-taking risk is high. Despite recent bearish trends, Bitcoin’s price has remained above the 1.0 band, meaning investors are still in a net unrealized profit position.
Martinez highlighted a recurring pattern: “Over the past decade, Bitcoin $BTC has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands.” Currently, these bands are near $54,000 and $43,000. The question now is whether Bitcoin will decline further to retest this historical bottoming zone or find a low before reaching it, breaking the pattern seen in previous cycles. This cycle has already diverged from history, as Bitcoin has not once breached the 3.2 MVRV band.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $73,000, up over 6% in the past week.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Historical Bottom Levels
Beginner Questions
1 What is the MVRV ratio
The MVRV ratio compares Bitcoins current market price to its realized price It helps gauge whether the market is overvalued or undervalued relative to its historical cost basis
2 What does it mean when Bitcoin bottoms out at certain MVRV levels
Historically major bear market lows for Bitcoin have occurred when the MVRV ratio falls to specific low levels This indicates the market price is trading below the average cost basis for most holders suggesting extreme fear and potential undervaluation
3 Where do these key MVRV bottom levels stand currently
As of the latest onchain data the MVRV ratio fluctuates with the price You need to check a live data source for the exact current number Historically watch for the ratio approaching or dipping below 10 as levels near or under 08 have often signaled major bottoms
4 Is the MVRV ratio a reliable buy signal
Its a powerful contextual tool not a precise timing signal Historically MVRV values below 10 have represented highvalue accumulation zones but prices can stay low for extended periods Its best used with other indicators and a longterm perspective
Advanced Practical Questions
5 Whats the difference between MVRV and the Realized Price
The Realized Price is the denominator in the MVRV ratio Its the total realized capitalization divided by total supply The MVRV ratio is simply Market Price Realized Price A ratio below 1 means the market price is below this aggregate cost basis
6 Have all Bitcoin bear market bottoms aligned perfectly with these MVRV levels
While remarkably consistent history doesnt repeat exactly The 2015 bottom saw MVRV near 08 and the 2018 bottom touched 07 The 2022 low occurred with an