Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow trading range since late November, testing the patience of traders and sparking widespread talk of an impending breakout. Volatility has dried up, the price has settled near important psychological levels, and the market is deeply split on the next move. Some analysts believe this extended period of sideways action is setting the stage for a fresh rally, while a larger group warns that Bitcoin could still see another drop before a lasting trend takes hold.
Adding to the uncertainty, prominent analyst Darkfost highlights a potentially worrying on-chain trend: the first hints of long-term holder capitulation are starting to appear. The last time Bitcoin traded around these prices was in April 2025, about nine months ago. Many investors bought in at higher prices since then and have held through the recent downturn. Now, a significant number of them are facing unrealized losses.
For context, Bitcoin held for more than six months is considered long-term holder supply, a group usually seen as more committed and less reactive to short-term price swings. When these investors begin showing stress, it often signals a critical juncture in the market cycle. Whether this turns into a brief shakeout or escalates into full-blown capitulation could be decisive for Bitcoin’s next major move.
Early Signs of Long-Term Holder Stress
The Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), which tracks whether coins held over six months are sold at a profit or loss, is currently showing behavior typical of bear markets. In recent days, the LTH SOPR briefly fell below the key level of 1.0. This indicates that some long-term holders—likely those who bought more recently—have started to capitulate by selling at a loss. Historically, this reflects growing strain on investors who purchased near the cycle’s peak and are now dealing with an extended decline.
So far, this activity is limited. The 30-day moving average of the LTH SOPR remains at a relatively healthy 1.18, meaning long-term holders have locked in an average profit of 18% over the past month. This shows that widespread capitulation hasn’t yet taken hold. However, it’s worth noting that this level is well below the annual average near 2.0, pointing to a clear slowdown in realized profits.
A further decline in this metric would be bearish in the near term, suggesting selling pressure is broadening. On the other hand, shrinking realized profits could also mean that sellers are gradually running out of steam. For a bullish recovery to gain traction, the LTH SOPR would need to stabilize and start climbing again, signaling restored confidence among long-term holders.
Bitcoin Price Holds Below Key Resistance
Bitcoin continues to trade within a clear consolidation range following its sharp pullback from the October highs. On the weekly chart, the price is lingering just below the $92,000–$94,000 resistance zone, an area that previously served as support before the breakdown. This level now acts as a major pivot point for market structure.
Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin is still trading above its rising 200-day moving average, which sits near the mid-$80,000s and continues to trend upward. This implies the broader trend remains positive, even as short-term momentum has faded. The 100-day moving average has flattened, reflecting a loss of upward drive, while the 50-day average is trying to stabilize after turning lower during the sell-off.Over the past few weeks, the price has formed a series of higher lows, suggesting buyers are slowly entering the market and absorbing selling pressure. However, trading volume has fallen during this period of consolidation, pointing to a lack of strong conviction from either buyers or sellers. This is typical of compression phases, which often come before a significant price move.
A sustained break and weekly close above $94,000 would signal renewed strength and could lead to a move toward the $100,000–$105,000 range. On the other hand, if the price fails to hold above the $86,000–$88,000 support zone, downside risk would increase, shifting focus toward deeper pullbacks.
For now, Bitcoin remains in balance, building tension for its next decisive move.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin LongTerm Holder Capitulation Selling Pressure
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does longterm holder mean in Bitcoin
A longterm holder is typically defined as an investor or entity that has held their Bitcoin for at least 155 days These are often considered more committed convictiondriven investors as opposed to shortterm traders
2 What is capitulation
Capitulation is a market term for a period of intense selling where investors give up hope of a price recovery and sell their assets often at a loss Its driven by fear panic or exhaustion and is frequently seen as a potential sign of a market bottom
3 If longterm holders are selling why isnt the price crashing harder
This suggests that while some steadfast investors are selling the overall selling volume from this group is being absorbed by other buyers New demand may be matching or exceeding this specific supply preventing a major price drop
4 Is it a bad sign if longterm holders start selling
It can be a mixed signal Historically LTH selling during downturns has sometimes marked a capitulation phase which precedes a market bottom However if it becomes a sustained trend it could indicate a deeper loss of confidence among Bitcoins most committed supporters
5 Where does this data about holders come from
Analysts use data from public blockchain explorers By tracking when coins last moved they can estimate how long theyve been held in a wallet This creates metrics like the LongTerm Holder Supply chart
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What are the specific signs of early capitulation
Signs include a measurable decline in the total supply held by longterm wallets an increase in the volume of older coins being spent and LTH selling occurring while the price is below their average cost basis
7 How can selling pressure be limited if key investors are exiting
Selling pressure is the net effect of all market activity Limited pressure means the