Bitcoin could be on the verge of a significant upward move if current trends continue, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. In a new market analysis, he notes that a combination of technical, on-chain, and macroeconomic indicators has turned more positive, despite ongoing geopolitical volatility.
Edwards describes the current market environment as particularly challenging, with swings driven by war fears, oil price spikes, and rapid developments in AI. However, he believes the underlying signals from Bitcoin and broader macro data are becoming harder to ignore—especially if Bitcoin can maintain a monthly and weekly close above $71,500, a level he views as critical.
From a technical perspective, Edwards states that a close above $71,500 would mark Bitcoin’s strongest monthly finish in a year. On the daily chart, he finds the recent price action even more encouraging, pointing to a strong upward move and Bitcoin’s outperformance relative to other markets since the onset of the Iran conflict. This shift is notable because Bitcoin had largely behaved like a risk asset for the previous nine months.
He also highlights several on-chain signals that resemble past accumulation phases. Key metrics include low normalized dormancy, suggesting long-term holders are not selling during dips, renewed accumulation by holders with positions older than two years, and deeply depressed SOPR readings, which have historically aligned with stronger forward returns for Bitcoin.
Miners are sending a similar message, according to Edwards. The market remains in a deep miner capitulation phase, yet miner selling pressure is unusually low. Additionally, he notes that institutions have returned as net buyers—a pattern that has accompanied every major Bitcoin rally over the past five years when demand outstripped new supply.
Taken together, Edwards concludes, “Amongst this swathe of data (and more) it’s hard not to be bullish on Bitcoin above $71.5K.”
Edwards also links Bitcoin’s improving outlook to traditional market indicators. He points to a recent buy signal in the VIX after volatility retreated, a return to “buy” territory in the CNN Fear & Greed Index, and what he calls the largest weekly jump in U.S. liquidity since May 2025. These shifts suggest markets may be moving past the peak of geopolitical panic, increasingly viewing the Iran conflict as a contained risk rather than a lasting macroeconomic shock.
Oil prices have pulled back below $100 per barrel, a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is holding, and Bitcoin has outperformed equities by 11% since the war began. For an asset that had been in a broad downtrend, Edwards sees this as a meaningful shift in behavior. He suggests markets may be entering a phase of “volatility fatigue,” where investors start to look past daily headlines and refocus on liquidity, growth, and fundamentals.
Still, the analysis is not purely optimistic. Edwards dedicates significant attention to what he sees as a growing AI-driven security threat to crypto infrastructure, particularly decentralized finance (DeFi) and complex smart contract systems. He warns that increasingly capable AI models could reduce the time needed to find and exploit vulnerabilities from months to minutes. His advice is straightforward: “If you don’t have a really good reason to use complex DeFi protocols and smart contracts, you probably shouldn’t be as we enter this new AI realm.”Is it really worth the added complexity to squeeze out those extra few basis points through lending, borrowing, bridging, staking, or restaking? This caution complements the bullish case rather than contradicts it. Edwards’ broader point is that the market is beginning to reward opportunity over fear, but only for investors who maintain disciplined risk management. “Let’s not overemphasize the problems we imagine, but let’s be prepared for them,” he wrote. “Historically, long-term performance has favored those who position for optimistic outcomes while diligently managing risks, monitoring the data, and acting with conviction. In short, if the current rally falters next week and risk indicators start flashing, our systematic portfolio will adjust accordingly. Until then, things look promising for Bitcoin and equities today.” At press time, BTC was trading at $74,117.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Potential Rally Key Indicators
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does it mean that Bitcoin could be poised for a major rally
It means some analysts believe the conditions are aligning for Bitcoins price to increase significantly in a relatively short period
2 Who is the Capriole Founder and why should I care about his analysis
The Capriole Founder is Charles Edwards who runs an investment firm focused on digital assets His analysis is respected because he uses datadriven models and onchain metrics not just speculation to form his market outlook
3 What are key indicators in this context
They are specific metrics that analysts track to gauge Bitcoins health and potential price direction Common examples include trading volume miner activity and the behavior of longterm holders
4 Is this a guarantee that Bitcoins price will go up
No absolutely not This is an analysis and a prediction based on current data The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and many external factors can change the outcome
5 As a beginner whats the safest way to act on this news
Do not invest based solely on one headline or prediction Use this as a starting point for your own research If you invest only use money you can afford to lose consider dollarcost averaging and ensure you use a reputable exchange
Advanced Practical Questions
6 What specific indicators is Caprioles founder likely referring to
He often references indicators like the Hash Ribbons MVRV ZScore and Puell Multiple A shift in these often precedes major price movements
7 How does miner capitulation indicate a potential bottom or rally
When mining becomes unprofitable weaker miners shut off their machines This reduces the selling pressure from miners needing to cover costs Historically when this capitulation ends and hash rate recovers it has often marked a market bottom before a rally
8 What is the difference between onchain and offchain indicators