As Bitcoin continues to underperform in the fourth quarter of 2025, investors have had multiple reasons to reduce their holdings. Among them, short-term holders (STHs) have been under pressure for an extended period.
STH MVRV in Deep Red for 60 Consecutive Days
In a recent post on X, market analyst Burak Kesmeci highlighted the current situation for Bitcoin’s most reactive investors—short-term holders. The focus is on the STH MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value. This metric shows whether short-term investors are, on average, in profit or at a loss.
A reading below the neutral level of “1” typically indicates that STHs are at a loss. The deeper the value, the more it may signal potential capitulation. Conversely, values above 1 show that short-term investors are in profit, with higher readings increasing the likelihood of profit-taking.
Kesmeci noted that the STH MVRV has been in deep red territory for a full 60 days. He explained that Bitcoin’s short-term investors are now facing the most severe test of patience they have seen in 2025. Prolonged negative MVRV readings often align with heightened market stress. Since this involves the market’s most reactive investors, Bitcoin could experience sell-offs driven by capitulation. However, the opposite is also possible: if bearish pressure eases, prolonged negative readings might signal that the market is stabilizing.
Bitcoin Remains Below 111-Day SMA — Implications for Price
To support his on-chain analysis, Kesmeci also pointed to a key technical observation: Bitcoin has been trading below the 111-day simple moving average (SMA 111) during the same period. This alignment between on-chain and technical analysis reinforces the view that Bitcoin is currently in a consolidating or corrective phase, rather than at the start of a significant upward trend.
From a broader perspective, Bitcoin’s future trajectory remains uncertain. Macroeconomic events and renewed spot demand could play pivotal roles in determining whether Bitcoin declines further or begins to recover.
As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $87,380, showing little movement over the past day.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoin ShortTerm Holders Market Downturn Signals
Beginner Questions
1 What are shortterm holders in Bitcoin
Shortterm holders are investors who have purchased Bitcoin within the last 155 days They are generally more sensitive to recent price movements and more likely to sell during volatility
2 What does facing losses mean here
It means that the current market price of Bitcoin is below the average price at which many recent buyers purchased it If they sold now they would lose money
3 What is this key market indicator signaling a downturn
The indicator is often the Spent Output Profit Ratio for shortterm holders When the STHSOPR is consistently below 1 it means this group is on average selling their Bitcoin at a loss which is a classic sign of fear and capitulation in a downtrend
4 Why is it bad if shortterm holders are selling at a loss
It indicates negative sentiment and selling pressure When a large group is willing to lock in losses it can drive the price down further and delay a market recovery until this weak hands selling is exhausted
5 Does this mean Bitcoin is a bad investment
Not necessarily Bitcoin is historically volatile Periods where shortterm holders lose money are common within larger market cycles Longterm investors often see these periods as potential buying opportunities
Intermediate Advanced Questions
6 How is the STHSOPR indicator calculated and what does it tell us
SOPR measures the profit or loss ratio of coins being spent STHSOPR Price Sold Price Paid for coins held 155 days A value below 1 signals net losstaking Sustained periods below 1 suggest capitulation which can sometimes precede a market bottom
7 Whats the difference between shortterm holder loss and longterm holder behavior
Longterm holders who hold for 155 days are typically less reactive Their spending often peaks at market tops During downturns they tend to hold or accumulate more showing conviction The current dynamic shows STH panic vs LTH resilience