Bitcoin’s recent sell-off has revived the debate over whether the market has hit a local bottom. Chris Kuiper, CFA and Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, suggests that current on-chain and sentiment indicators resemble those seen during past bull-market corrections, though he emphasizes that nothing is guaranteed. “Like everyone else, I can’t be certain,” Kuiper posted on X, “but one chart I find useful for assessing probabilities is the short-term holder MVRV chart, along with their cost basis.”
The Glassnode chart he referenced compares Bitcoin’s price to the realized price of short-term holders (STHs) and their MVRV ratio, which indicates whether this group is collectively in profit or loss. Historically, local lows have often occurred when the STH MVRV ratio fell below 1, temporarily putting recent buyers at a loss before prices rebounded. Kuiper observes that the current decline has similarly pushed short-term holders into loss territory, mirroring earlier mid-cycle pullbacks. “If this is a typical 20–30% drop within the ongoing bull market, the MVRV ratio is showing a familiar dip, testing short-term holders’ resolve before a potential recovery,” he noted.
Kuiper also points to the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, which has shifted from prolonged “greed” and “extreme greed” to “fear,” including bouts of “extreme fear.” He remarks that the index “often reaches extremes at local tops and bottoms,” indicating that sentiment has cooled after recent exuberance. The index currently stands at 11. “This isn’t a prediction,” he clarified, “but with no negative fundamental news—and actually positive developments lately—this data leads me to believe this is a standard, healthy correction.”
Other analysts remain more cautious. Max Shannon, a senior research associate at Bitwise, highlighted potential risks such as “further downside due to stock market correlations, reduced likelihood of a December rate cut, and long-term holders selling during Bitcoin’s ‘IPO moment’.” However, he added that “risk-return profiles are improving at these levels in my view. Conditions are stretched, and many contrarian indicators are turning positive.”
Crypto investor Richard Haas noted a deviation from previous bull-market corrections, cautioning that “earlier corrections never closed more than 10% below the 200-day moving average cloud and never allowed the 50-day moving average to curve downward.”
For now, Kuiper maintains that the on-chain stress among short-term holders and the sharp sentiment reset align with a typical bull-market shakeout. Whether this signals a lasting bottom or just a temporary halt in the decline remains uncertain—and, as he stresses, it all boils down to probabilities, not certainties.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $92,019.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of helpful and clear FAQs about whether Bitcoin has hit its lowest point based on Fidelitys research
Beginner General Questions
1 What does Bitcoin hitting its lowest point mean
It refers to the concept of a market bottom which is the lowest price Bitcoin will reach in a particular downturn before its price begins a sustained recovery
2 Who is Fidelitys Research Lead and why is their opinion important
Fidelity is a massive globally respected financial institution Their Research Lead provides analysis based on deep market data and institutional expertise which many investors trust over casual speculation
3 So has Bitcoin actually hit its lowest point
According to Fidelitys research its impossible to know for certain They assess the possibilities and the factors that could signal a bottom but no one can pinpoint the exact lowest point with 100 accuracy
4 What are the main signs Fidelity looks for to identify a bottom
They typically look for a combination of things like extreme negative investor sentiment a slowdown in selling pressure and Bitcoins price holding strong at key historical support levels
5 Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin
Fidelitys analysis can help inform your decision suggesting that if a bottom is near it could be a potential buying opportunity However you should only invest money you are prepared to lose and consider your own financial goals
Advanced MarketFocused Questions
6 What specific onchain metrics does Fidelity likely analyze
They probably examine metrics like
MVRV Ratio To see if Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its historical average
Realized Price The average price at which all Bitcoins were last moved often acting as a strong support level
Supply in ProfitLoss To gauge the level of pain or euphoria in the market
7 How does macroeconomic policy affect Bitcoins price bottom
Bitcoin is increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors When central banks raise interest rates it makes safer assets more attractive which can pull money out of riskier assets like Bitcoin potentially pushing the bottom lower
8 What is capitulation and is it necessary for a true market bottom
Capitulation is a period of extreme panic selling