Bitcoin has been consolidating since late November, struggling to find a clear direction as the market searches for stability. After failing to hold gains above the October 2025 highs, the price has settled into a broad trading range, reflecting growing investor uncertainty. Some see this pause as a potential base for a future rally, while others remain cautious, citing historical bear market patterns.
According to analyst Axel Adler, the current drawdown from Bitcoin’s October peak remains historically shallow. In the ongoing cycle, the drawdown is about -27%, with a maximum correction of roughly -33%. This contrasts sharply with past bear markets: -92% in 2011, around -82% in both the 2013–2015 and 2017–2018 cycles, and -75% in 2021–2022. This relative resilience may indicate a structural shift, possibly due to the growing influence of spot ETFs and institutional capital, which could be dampening volatility. However, Adler cautions that the current bear phase is still young, and it’s too early to conclude that deep drawdowns are a thing of the past.
Adler also points to the Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) model for context. This long-term on-chain valuation metric tracks when older coins are spent, which has historically signaled major market transitions. Bitcoin is currently trading near $91,000, roughly double the base CVDD level of about $46,600. Historically, true capitulation and panic selling have occurred when the price approaches or falls below this base level. The fact that Bitcoin remains well above it suggests the market has not yet entered a full capitulation phase, with long-term holders largely holding steady.
In summary, the shallow drawdown and Bitcoin’s position above key CVDD valuation bands indicate the current correction is consistent with an early-stage bear cycle rather than a complete market bottom.
Technically, Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight range around $90,000–$91,000 following its sharp decline from above $100,000. The price remains below the downward-sloping 100-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling the broader trend has turned corrective. The recent bounce from December lows near $86,000 lacked strong momentum, suggesting buyer demand remains cautious.Bitcoin has managed to hold above its recent lows, but each rally has been stopped near the declining moving averages, showing that selling pressure remains. Volume has also dropped during this period of sideways trading, indicating a lack of strong commitment from either buyers or sellers.
From a structural standpoint, Bitcoin seems to be building a base rather than starting a new upward trend. Staying above the $88,000–$90,000 support area is crucial to prevent a deeper pullback toward the mid-$80,000s. For a sustained recovery to take hold, Bitcoin would need to decisively break back above the $95,000–$98,000 zone, where important moving averages are clustered. Overall, the current price movement looks more like consolidation within a larger correction than the beginning of a new bull run.
Frequently Asked Questions
Of course Here is a list of FAQs about Bitcoins price decline in relation to the CVDD model designed to be helpful for both beginners and more advanced users
Beginner Definition Questions
1 What is the CVDD model
The CVDD model is an advanced onchain metric that estimates Bitcoins cost basis or fundamental value by analyzing the age and price of coins being spent on the blockchain Its used to identify periods when Bitcoin might be significantly overvalued or undervalued
2 What does deeply undervalued mean in this context
It means the current market price has fallen well below the models estimate of Bitcoins fundamental value similar to the extreme lows seen at the bottom of previous bear markets
3 So is Bitcoin a buy right now according to this model
Not necessarily a screaming buy The model suggests the price has declined but may not have hit the extreme generationalbuyingopportunity lows of past cycles It might indicate we are in a later stage of the bear market but not necessarily at the absolute bottom
Intermediate Market Context Questions
4 How is the current decline different from past crashes like 2018 or early 2020
According to the CVDD model in those past crashes Bitcoins price fell far below the models value line indicating extreme undervaluation The current suggestion is that the price while down significantly from its alltime high is still hovering closer to or above that fundamental value line implying the market hasnt reached the same level of total capitulation
5 Does this mean the bear market is over
Not according to this specific metric The fact that the price hasnt reached the deeply undervalued zone of the CVDD model could imply there is still potential for further downside or a prolonged period of consolidation before the next major bull cycle begins
6 What other factors should I consider besides the CVDD model
Always consider multiple perspectives Look at other onchain metrics macroeconomic conditions and overall market sentiment No single model is a perfect crystal ball
Advanced Practical Application Questions