Fidelity Digital Assets ya ce raguwar farashin Bitcoin na baya-bayan nan ya tura kasuwa zuwa wani yanki da a tarihi yake da alaƙa da lokutan tara kuɗi, ko da yake alamar ƙarfinsa har yanzu ba ta da kyau kuma sha'awar crypto gabaɗaya ta kasance mai iyaka. A cikin Rahoton Sigina na kwata na biyu na 2026, ƙungiyar bincike ta Fidelity ta bayyana kasuwar da har yanzu tana aiki kan gyara maimakon shiga farfaɗo mai faɗi. Bitcoin ya ci gaba da kasancewa babban tushen ribar da ba a samu ba a cikin kadarorin dijital, yayin da sauran manyan tsabar kuɗi ke ci gaba da daidaitawa bayan faɗuwa mai tsanani a kwata na farko.
Fidelity Ta Ce Bitcoin Yayi Kama da Rashin Daraja
Mafi bayyananniyar alamar farashi a cikin rahoton ta fito ne daga "Yardstick" na Bitcoin, kayan aikin kimantawa da ke kwatanta girman kasuwar Bitcoin da ƙimar hash ɗinta. Fidelity ta kimanta wannan ma'auni a matsayin mai kyau, tana mai lura cewa faɗuwar farashi da raguwar ƙimar hash sun tura alamar zuwa yankin da take kira "rashin daraja." "A tarihi, wannan yankin rashin daraja ya yi daidai da matakan tara kuɗi da ƙasƙan da ke da alaƙa," in ji rahoton. A cewar Fidelity, Bitcoin ya shafe kwanaki 71 daga cikin 91 da suka gabata—kashi 78% na lokacin—a ƙasa da ma'aunin daidaitawa mara kyau ɗaya daga matsakaicin Yardstick. Wannan yanayin ya fara bayyana a watan Oktoba 2025 kuma ya ƙara tsananta ta hanyar abubuwan sanyi guda biyu a Amurka waɗanda suka rage ayyukan hakar ma'adinai na ɗan lokaci yayin da masu aiki suka yanke amfani da wutar lantarki don taimakawa kiyaye daidaiton grid na gida.
Wannan daki-daki yana da mahimmanci. Fidelity ba ta ganin raguwar ƙimar hash kawai a matsayin alamar cewa masu hakar ma'adinai suna rasa kwarin gwiwa. Rahoton ya lura cewa wasu manazarta sun danganta raguwar ga masu hakar ma'adinai da ke matsawa zuwa nauyin aikin AI, amma sun yi jayayya cewa yana iya nuna shirye-shiryen amsa buƙata, musamman a wurare kamar Texas inda masu hakar ma'adinai ke rage wutar lantarki akai-akai yayin buƙatar grid mafi girma.
Yanayin farashi ya kasance mai wahala. Alamar ƙarfin Fidelity ga Bitcoin ta zama mara kyau a ranar 18 ga Oktoba, 2025, lokacin da BTC ke ciniki kusa da $107,000. Tun daga wannan lokacin, Bitcoin ya faɗi kusan 36%, tare da mafi yawan kwata na farko na 2026 a cikin wani yanki da aka ayyana tsakanin $62,500 da $76,022. Kamfanin ya ce wannan tsari yayi kama da haɗuwa maimakon sabon yanayi. "Wannan siginar ba a tsara ta don gano ainihin kololuwa ko ƙasƙan ba," in ji Fidelity, tana ƙara da cewa karatun na yanzu yana nuna daidaitawa maimakon sabon ƙarfin hawa.
Makin NUPL na Bitcoin shima yana nuna kasuwa mai taka tsantsan. Fidelity ta ce ribar da ba a samu ba/asara ta BTC ta tsaya a 0.21 a ƙarshen kwata na farko na 2026, wanda ya sanya masu zuba jari a yankin "Fata-Tsoro." Wannan yana nuna cewa wasu masu riƙe har yanzu suna cikin riba, amma kasuwa ba ta gina kwarin gwiwa mai ƙarfi cewa an sami ƙasƙan mai dorewa ba. Hoton tarihi ya fi ƙarfafawa. Fidelity ta gano cewa lokutan da suka gabata lokacin da NUPL na Bitcoin ya kewaya kusan 0.21, tare da ƙari ko ragi 0.01, an bi su da matsakaicin dawowar shekara guda na 63% da ƙimar haɓakar shekaru uku na 74%. Duk da haka, kamfanin ya jaddada cewa waɗannan tsarin tarihi na iya raunana ko kasa riƙewa, musamman lokacin da yanayin tattalin arziki ya mamaye kwararar kadarorin dijital.
A wani ɓangare, Jurrien Timmer na Fidelity ya nuna wani shiri na dabara na Bitcoin, yana raba ginshiƙi da ke nuna BTC yana gwada iyakar sama na abin da ya bayyana a matsayin yuwuwar tutar bear. Ginshiƙin ya sanya Bitcoin kusa da $79,486 bayan dawowar sa daga ƙasƙan Fabrairu kusan $60,033, tare da alamun ƙarfi suna komawa cikin yankin da aka wuce gona da iri. Timmer ya bayyana shirin na yanzu a matsayin muhimmin gwaji na fasaha. "Technical Analysis 101 ya ce lokacin da hawan kasuwar bear ya wuce gona da iri, yawanci shine sumba na mutuwa kuma lokacin siyarwa ne," in ji shi. "Duk da haka, a lokacin kasuwannin bijimi, ƙarfin da ya wuce gona da iri yana nufin cewa kasuwa tana da ƙarfi kuma mai yiwuwa ta ci gaba da ƙarfi." Ƙarshensa ya ƙara tsananta tambayar farashin da babban rahoton Fidelity ya taso: ko Bitcoin har yanzu yana makale a cikin tsarin gyara ko kuma ya fara canzawa zuwa wani sabon abu. Sabon lokacin bijimi yana farawa. "Idan ba za a iya saukar da Bitcoin ta wannan haɗin ƙarfin da ya wuce gona da iri da juriyar layin yanayi ba, to wannan kasuwar bijimi ce mai tasowa, ba kawai hawan kasuwar bear ba," in ji Timmer. Ya ƙara da cewa wannan shine "zaton sa tun da farko" kuma "yana iya kusan tabbatarwa." A lokacin rubutawa, BTC yana ciniki a $76,036. Hoton da aka nuna an ƙirƙira shi da DALL.E, ginshiƙi daga TradingView.com.
Tambayoyin da Aka Yi Yawa
Anan akwai jerin tambayoyin da aka yi yawa game da yankin tara Bitcoin da Fidelity ta gano, an rubuta su cikin yanayi na halitta tare da amsoshi bayyanannu masu sauki.
Tambayoyin Matakin Farko
Tambaya: Menene yankin tara kuɗi na Fidelity ga Bitcoin?
Amsa: Wani yanki ne na farashi na musamman da manazartan Fidelity suka gano bisa tsarin kasuwa na baya. A tarihi, lokacin da Bitcoin ya shiga wannan yanki, manyan masu zuba jari da cibiyoyi sukan yi siye sosai, suna ɗaukarsa a matsayin kyakkyawan wurin shiga kafin farashi ya sake tashi.
Tambaya: Me yasa Fidelity ke ganin wannan yanki na farashi yana da mahimmanci?
Amsa: Fidelity ta yi nazarin zagayowar Bitcoin na baya kuma ta lura cewa duk lokacin da farashi ya faɗi cikin wannan yanki, yana nuna ƙasƙan ko matakin goyon baya mai ƙarfi. Bayan haka, farashi yakan tashi sosai. Suna ganin shi a matsayin alamar cewa masu siye suna shigowa.
Tambaya: Shin wannan tabbaci ne cewa Bitcoin zai tashi daga wannan farashi?
Amsa: A'a, ba tabbaci ba ne. Tsarin tarihi ne, ba hasashen ba. Kasuwanni na iya canzawa koyaushe. Yana da alamar cewa farashi yana kan matakin da a tarihi kudi mai wayo ya tara, amma yana iya ci gaba da faɗuwa.
Tambaya: Shin ya kamata in sayi Bitcoin lokacin da yake cikin wannan yankin tara kuɗi?
Amsa: Wannan yanke shawara ce ta sirri. Yankin yana nuna yuwuwar kyakkyawan wurin shiga bisa bayanan baya, amma bai kamata ka saka fiye da yadda za ka iya rasa ba. Yana da kyau ka yi bincikenka kuma ka yi la'akari da haɗarin da za ka iya ɗauka.
Tambaya: Ta yaya zan san idan Bitcoin yana cikin yankin tara kuɗi a yanzu?
Amsa: Ba za ka iya sanin tabbas a lokaci guda ba. Binciken Fidelity ya dogara da bayanan tarihi kuma yawanci ana gano yankin bayan faruwa. Kana iya bin rahotannin Fidelity ko amfani da kayan aikin bayanan kan sarkar don ganin idan yawan siye yana ƙaruwa a wasu matakan farashi.
Tambayoyin Matakin Ci Gaba
Tambaya: Wadanne ma'auni na musamman Fidelity ke amfani da su don ayyana wannan yankin tara kuɗi?
Amsa: Fidelity na iya amfani da haɗin ma'aunin kan sarkar kamar farashin da aka gane, MVRV Z-Score, da bayanan shigowa/fitar musayar. Suna neman tsarin inda masu riƙe na dogon lokaci suka fara motsa tsabar kuɗi daga musayar yayin da masu siyarwa na ɗan gajeren lokaci suka bushe.