Bitcoin’s drop into the $60,000–$70,000 range has triggered the usual signals that traders watch for a market bottom: extreme fear, exhausted positioning, and a cluster of capitulation indicators. However, CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet argues the market is overlooking the only factor that truly matters: clear buying from major players.
“What I emphasized when Bitcoin was at $80K–$90K still holds true,” he wrote on February 18. “Many indicators followed by the market are pointing to a bottom and extreme fear. Yet, we are not seeing dominant players—whales—actually taking advantage of this situation.”
Mignolet’s core point is straightforward: a bottom isn’t just a sentiment gauge; it’s an event marked by forced absorption of selling pressure, which he isn’t observing now. “No matter how many indicators suggest a bottom, if no real buying force steps in, we can’t know where the true bottom will be,” he said. “That’s why I don’t make price predictions lightly.”
He contrasts the current market with the 2024 bull cycle, when fear dominated headlines even as large investors quietly bought. Back then, he notes, institutional demand through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs—specifically BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC—provided a measurable backstop by “clearly absorbing the selling pressure.”
The “most important point,” according to Mignolet, is that this dynamic isn’t present now. He says the sustained accumulation pattern in FBTC has “already broken down,” and IBIT, which previously acted as a buffer during heavy selling, is “now trending downward, unlike last year.” This shift is why he remains cautious about calling a bottom, even if prices stabilize in the current range. He believes Bitcoin is still in a phase where traders should “be cautious about further shocks,” and that any recovery would likely need time to be confirmed.
When Everyone Reads the Same Data
Beyond fund flows, Mignolet also warns about a structural shift in how market narratives are formed. He argues that the rise of on-chain analytics has made the space more data-rich but not necessarily more insightful—and sometimes more risky.
“The problem is that everyone looks at the same data and often reaches similar conclusions,” he wrote. “In many cases, even the people producing the data don’t fully understand it. When information becomes too common, it pushes expectations in one direction.”
He describes today’s polished on-chain dashboards as “clean and convincing, almost like an answer sheet,” which can reinforce conviction just when flexibility is needed. The danger, he suggests, is that widespread consensus around an “obvious” bottom can leave investors unprepared for deeper declines or prolonged sideways movement.
In the near term, Mignolet expects not a clean trend reversal but “sideways movement without a clear direction,” with enough volatility to create short-term trading opportunities. For his own strategy, he described this period as one of “waiting,” stepping back to observe “liquidity flows, supply and demand conditions, and overall market sentiment” before resetting his approach.
On the bigger picture, he remains bearish, expecting a more drawn-out downturn than he anticipated last year. His closing warning is that this down cycle is “unlikely to end lightly,” with potential outcomes including a larger-than-expected drop, a longer-than-expected sideways phase, or both.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,889.
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQs Bitcoins Uncertain Price Bottom Market Sentiment
BeginnerLevel Questions
1 What does Bitcoins potential bottom remains uncertain mean
It means analysts and investors are unsure at what price Bitcoin will stop falling and begin a sustained recovery While there are signs of extreme fear theres no clear signal that the lowest price has been reached
2 Why is fear at extreme levels a big deal for Bitcoin
Extreme fear often signals that many panicked sellers have already sold which can sometimes precede a market bottom However its not a guaranteeprices can still fall further if fear turns into capitulation
3 Who are the large investors mentioned and why do they matter
These are often called whalesentities like investment funds corporations or wealthy individuals holding large amounts of Bitcoin Their buying can provide massive support to the price so their absence suggests a lack of institutional confidence at current levels
4 If fear is high shouldnt that be a good time to buy
Historically buying when theres extreme fear has been profitable longterm but its very risky shortterm The saying is be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful but timing the exact bottom is nearly impossible
Advanced Market Dynamics Questions
5 What metrics show that fear is at extreme levels
Analysts use indicators like the Crypto Fear Greed Index which combines volatility market momentum social media sentiment and surveys A very low score signals extreme fear High trading volume on down days and negative funding rates in derivatives markets also contribute
6 Why arent large investors buying if prices are lower
Several reasons are possible 1 They may believe prices will drop further and are waiting for a better entry 2 Macroeconomic factors make risky assets less attractive 3 They may be facing liquidity issues or regulatory uncertainty 4 Their accumulation might be happening quietly off major exchanges and not yet visible
7 Whats the difference between extreme fear and capitulation
Extreme Fear A prolonged period of negative sentiment panic selling and pessimism